Buccaneers vs. Saints Odds & Betting Predictions - October 26, 2025

Apologies in advance

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

The Saints are 4.5-point home underdogs, but this is actually a spot where they’re projected to trail at a 32% lower rate than their season average. The market might not fully appreciate how run-heavy they’ve been, ranking 2nd lowest in pass rate over expected this year. In a rare closer or even positive game script for them, that will only be magnified. The Bucs have generated the 2nd-highest pressure rate in the league, and New Orleans just lost center Erik McCoy (torn biceps, out for the season). That could force Spencer Rattler to use his legs more (at the expense of pass attempts), who scrambles 15% of the time when pressured compared to just 1.2% from a clean pocket. We could also see more Taysom Hill packages to spark the run game if it struggles against a stingy TB run defense, which completely removes Rattler from the field.. a rare quirk for a starting QB and another subtle way his attempts drop. And if the Saints do end up trailing big, there’s still a chance they want to give rookie Tyler Shough some late-game reps to evaluate for the future, especially with multiple veterans rumored to be on the trade block. You’d want to see him get to throw to Chris Olave and others who could get traded to properly evaluate him. Having said that, I’m projecting Rattler to play 100% of the game (just highlighting potential “outs” I’m not even factoring into my projection) and have him closer to 32.5 attempts, with roughly a 61% chance he stays under 34.5.

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This game is a bit of a mess with so many Bucs injuries, but I'm always happy to sniff around a Taysom Hill TD bet now that he's returned from injury. The Bucs are among the league's worst defenses on both short passes and passes over the middle of the field. That's tight end territory, and sure enough, Taysom Hill has caught a touchdown in two of his last three games against Tampa Bay. Of course, Hill is a two-way threat — three, really, but we don't get credit for touchdown passes on ATD bets. Hill often runs the ball in from short, and he could even see more opportunities now that Kendre Miller is out, freeing up about a third of New Orleans' red zone carries. Hill has scored an Anytime TD in nine of his last 21 games. That's a 43% hit rate that would imply a price of around +133, so we are getting almost twice the expected payout at +250. But the key thing with Hill is that when it's a Taysom game, it's often really a Taysom game. Three of those nine games with a Hill touchdown actually saw multiple touchdowns by the do-everything tight end, including one with a trio of scores. The Bucs have already allowed two tight ends to score multiple TDs in a game this season and did so twice last year too. Play a Taysom Hill Anytime TD at +250, but in this case, it's practically mandatory to place a portion of your bet on 2+ TDs at +2500 too (both at FanDuel). And you know what? It probably won't happen but has hit twice since 2022, so sneak a tiny portion of your wager on 3+ TDs just in case at +17500 (FD) — you'd be absolutely sick if Hill hit that and we just didn't take the escalator high enough.

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