Texans vs. Titans Odds & Betting Predictions - October 11, 2026

I think this is a good spot to buy into Woody Marks before the market catches up to what Houston is doing with its backfield. This has been a pretty even split between Marks and David Montgomery, but the rushing props don't reflect that, with Montgomery sitting at 44.5 yards compared to just 29.5 for Marks. Houston made a subtle change to the rotation last week. Through the first three games, Montgomery would get the first two drives before the Texans started rotating by series, with Marks coming in for the third possession and rotating every other from there. Last week, Montgomery still got the opening drive, but the rotation began immediately afterward, with Marks taking the second drive. I think that's an important development, even if it hasn't fully shown up in the box score yet. The reason the production hasn't looked like a 50/50 split is that Montgomery's drives have lasted longer, giving him more opportunities to accumulate carries. I'm expecting that to even out over time, and I think the books are chasing the recent production rather than properly accounting for how Houston is distributing the snaps. The game script is another major positive. Houston is a 7.5-point favorite against a struggling Tennessee team, and I expect the Texans to have opportunities to sustain drives and lean on the run. That's the type of environment where Marks can get enough carries to clear this number without needing an unusually efficient performance. Ultimately, I don't think there should be a 15-yard gap between these two backs when the workload is trending toward an even split. Montgomery's recent box scores have made him the more expensive option, but Marks has a clear path to more rushing volume, and the expected game script should help both backs. I'll take the discount on Marks at a number that only requires 30 yards.

Early szn Bounce Back Overall: 340-234-10,59% (ROI:15%) Season:8-6-0,57% (ROI:9%) Defeated from Home Game Now on Road Overall: 147-96-6,60% (ROI:17%) Season:4-0-0,100% (ROI:94%) #TSA

@DougKezirian https://youtu.be/P3X8BD_4KTw?is=V8M5PRyqAGXxHS02

There may be some value on the receptions prop for Elic Ayomanor. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 1.23 receptions, and the oddsmakers are implying 1.85. The model believes there is a 67% chance he records fewer than 1.5 receptions. If you can get the under at -107 or better, there is some great value here. This play is good down to at least -140. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

@GDAWG5000 https://youtu.be/D-VSFIRKqec?is=hMOaINyXZnMG7eG3

@GDAWG5000 https://www.youtube.com/live/_2qcnw1iubI?is=6NkNi3QWzF0NgWwS