Bengals vs. Chiefs Odds and Predictions: Experts Agree On AFC Championship Spread, Plus 9 NFL Playoff Picks

When the Bengals and Chiefs met in Week 17, Cincinnati won 34-31 on a last-second field goal at home as a 7.5-point underdog — a role that Joe Burrow and Co. find themselves in once again as they head to Arrowhead to take on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game of the 2022 NFL playoffs.

So where's the betting value on what's expected to be a high-flying showdown? Three of our experts are on the same side of this spread, while two others are targeting a pair of overs — and that's excluding the seven player props we're betting.

Find all of our picks and predictions for Bengals-Chiefs below.

Bengals-Chiefs Picks, Predictions

Bengals Spread

written by Chris Raybon

This number is too big for a Bengals team that has shown it can match up well with the Chiefs, upsetting them 34-31 in Week 17.

On offense, the Bengals match up well because the scheme of Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo relies on man coverage and blitzing. The Chiefs play man coverage at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL and blitz at the eighth-highest. Including the postseason, the Bengals are averaging 11.4 yards per targeted pass attempt against man coverage, best in the NFL. And when blitzed, Joe Burrow led the NFL with 11.5 yards per attempt — over two yards better than second-place Matthew Stafford (9.3). In the first meeting between these two teams, Burrow shredded the Chiefs for 446 passing yards, four touchdown passes and no interceptions.

The most promising thing about Burrow’s Week 17 performance if you’re a Bengals backer? The Chiefs actually blitzed at a lower rate than usual and Burrow was still able to smoke them like one of his patented victory cigars — going 24-of-30 for 354 yards and all four of his touchdowns when Spagnuolo chose not to send extra rushers.

As always, the biggest thing you worry about with the Bengals offense is protection after Burrow was sacked nine times last week, but I think it’s good for the Bengals that it happened last week against a lesser offensive team, as offensive coordinator Brian Callahan will be able to install some more quick passes and/or lean on a spread offense that allows Burrow to get the ball out more quickly. Although Burrow took four sacks under pressure in the first matchup, he also completed 7-of-10 passes for 138 yards and a touchdown when under duress.

On defense, the Bengals will not shut down Patrick Mahomes, but they have at least shown that they can contain him and the rest of the Chiefs stars. Here is how Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce fared against Cincinnati in Week 17:

• Mahomes: 26-of-35, 259 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT
• Hill: 6/40/0 on 10 targets
• Kelce: 5/25/1 on 7 targets

Even after defeating the Bills in last week’s overtime thriller, the Chiefs are just 1-3 against the other three AFC Divisional Round teams, getting outscored 135-96 with their only win coming by six points. In these teams’ first matchup, the Bengals bested the Chiefs in total yardage (475-414) and yards per play (7.5-7.1). Even if they don’t win, they are a threat to keep it close and/or get a backdoor cover. In fact, underdogs by 7 or more in the Conference Championship are 10-5 against the spread (ATS) since 1999.

The Chiefs have played 19 games this season, and only eight wins — or 42% of those games — have come by eight points or more. Meanwhile — and this speaks to Burrow’s star turn — the Bengals have lost by more than three points in only two of Burrow’s 18 starts this season (11%).

Over

written by Raheem Palmer

Similar to last week's Bills-Chiefs game, neither the Bengals nor the Chiefs have any chance of slowing down the opposing offense. These two played in the regular season with both teams putting up a combined 65 points on nearly 900 total yards. The Bengals put up 7.5 yards per play, while the Chiefs put up 7.1 yards per play.

If there's anything that stands out about the first matchup, it's that despite the game flying over the total of 51, the Chiefs scored just three second-half points — something I'm 100% confident won't happen again on Sunday.

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Despite the talks of improvement from this Chiefs defense, I'm really not buying it. Since Week 8 of the regular season, they've played the Giants, Raiders (twice), Cowboys (post-Dak Prescott injury), Broncos (twice; once with Drew Lock at QB), Chargers, Steelers, Bengals and Packers (without Aaron Rodgers). The Raiders, Broncos, Steelers and Bengals are 20th, 13th, 27th and 19th in Football Outsiders' offensive DVOA, respectively. And while the Cowboys were sixth in offensive DVOA, their offense wasn't the same after Prescott returned from injury. So outside of Prescott and Joe Burrow, none of those quarterbacks were in the top 10 in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, and it's no surprise Burrow carved Kansas City up for the most yardage the Chiefs have given up this year.

The Bengals have been fifth in EPA/play and third in Success Rate since Week 11 given the stellar play of Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase. They've scored 32, 41, 22, 23, 41, 34 and 26 against the Raiders, Steelers, Chargers, Ravens, Chiefs and Raiders, respectively, during that span.

Nonetheless, I expect another solid offensive performance this weekend.

The Bengals are just 19th in defensive DVOA and 24th against the pass despite facing the 14th-ranked schedule of opposing offenses. This Bengals team gave up 34 points to the Jets, 41 points to the Browns and 41 points to the Chargers. In their wild-card game against the Raiders, the Bengals allowed five trips to the red zone.

In last week's Divisional Round win, the Titans got whatever they wanted through the air, throwing for 8.5 yards per pass and 6.8 yards per play. But Ryan Tannehill's three interceptions and the turnover on downs killed drives, surpassing their offensive output.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will likely have no problems scoring Sunday. I played the over 53.5 earlier this week (be sure to follow me in the Action App to keep up with all of my picks), but I'd still play the over to 55.

2Q Over

written by Brandon Anderson

Both defenses ranked in the bottom five in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA in the second quarter while both offenses ranked top six in that stanza.

I expect plenty of points with both offenses so explosive and firing on all cylinders right now, but I wouldn't be surprised to see things start out slow. Both teams are coming off emotionally exhausting wins, Bengals head coach Zac Taylor has played conservatively, and the Bengals are not great in the first quarter.

I'll play the second quarter over 16.5 at BetRivers to cover that angle.

Chiefs Props

Bengals Props

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