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Bengals vs Browns Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 14

Bengals vs Browns Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 14 article feature image
Credit:

Jason Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Nick Chubb.

  • The Bengals are laying 3.5 points at home agains the Browns in Week 14.
  • Deshaun Watson will make his second start of the season after an underwhelming debut.
  • Blake Krass previews the game and makes his pick below.

Bengals vs Browns Odds

Sunday, Dec. 11
1 p.m. ET
CBS
Bengals Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-118
47.5
-215
Browns Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-104
47.5
+180
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

This is a AFC North divisional matchup the Browns have owned since Joe Burrow entered the league in 2020. Kevin Stefanski is 5-0 straight-up (SU) against the Bengals, but the defending AFC champions are coming off of a massive win over the Chiefs and will want revenge in this spot.

So, where do we start in finding a Bengals vs Browns pick?

This will be Deshaun Watson’s second game back after a disappointing debut against the Texans. The Browns did win comfortably thanks to two defensive touchdowns and another on a punt return. However, Watson struggled mightily against the No. 26 defense (per DVOA) that was missing its top cornerback.

The Browns should go with their old reliable in this game and feed Nick Chubb. The Bengals defense gave everything last week to stop Patrick Mahomes and a heavy dose of Chubb could possibly wear them down. That in turn would allow Watson to slowly integrate himself more into Cleveland’s offense.

Bengals vs Browns Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Bengals and Browns match up statistically:

Bengals vs Browns DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 7 11
Pass DVOA 12 10
Rush DVOA 8 16
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 5 27
Pass DVOA 6 21
Rush DVOA 7 31

Watson threw for 131 yards and an interception against a bad defense last week, but it’s only natural that it would take time for him to adjust after such a long layoff. However, due to the controversy surrounding him, the media is already questioning Stefanski about whether he would consider benching Watson.

Stefanski made it clear that Watson is Cleveland’s QB1. That being said, I think Cleveland will go run heavy and let Chubb and Hunt do the heavy lifting. That’s led to success for the Browns in the past against the Bengals and I think it is the best path forward again.


Bet Cleveland vs. Cincinnati at FanDuel


For the Bengals, I think they will go with a similar game plan. Burrow has had struggles against the Browns — from a purely statistical perspective, he has put up a lot of yards, but that is largely due to playing from behind after poor play early in the game.

Both defenses are worse against the run than the pass. That is another reason I think both coaches will go with the ground-game approach. This should limit possessions and keep points to a minimum.

Betting Picks

I think the under is the way to go in this game. I can’t trust the Browns offense until Watson gets himself up to speed so I foresee a heavy running attack to keep the ball out of Burrow’s hands.

On the other side, I could see a bit of a letdown for Cincinnati after its big win. The Browns have given the Bengals problems in the Stefanski/Zac Taylor era and I think that could happen again here.

These teams are very familiar with each other and I think that always gives the defenses an advantage. Divisional totals in Week 14 and beyond within the range of 40-47 are 174-134-11 (57%) to the under. I think the trend holds up and this goes under the listed total of 47.

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