Colts vs Jaguars Picks, Predictions: NFL Week 2 Preview

Colts vs Jaguars Picks, Predictions: NFL Week 2 Preview article feature image

Patrick Smith/Getty Images. Pictured: Christian Kirk.

  • The Colts are favored despite many injury issues on Sunday against the Jaguars.
  • Indianapolis will be without key players Michael Pittman Jr. and Shaquille Leonard.
  • Sam Farley's focus is on a player prop, which he breaks down below.

Colts vs. Jaguars Odds

Sunday, Sept. 18
1 p.m. ET
Colts Odds
-110o / -110u
Jaguars Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Sunday sees an AFC South Divisional clash as the Indianapolis Colts travel to TIAA Bank Field to face the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Neither side won in the opening week, but the Colts managed to salvage a tie in their game against the Texans after having been down 17 points at the beginning of the fourth quarter.

The hosts lost a close game on the road against the WashingtonCommanders, but there were reasons to be hopeful for the Jags, with Trevor Lawrence showing some glimpses of the arm talent that saw him drafted first overall last year.

That Jaguars' passing game offers us a potential opportunity to hit a nice win here in Week 2.

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Colts vs. Jaguars Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Colts and Jaguars match up statistically:

Colts vs. Jaguars DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA2017
Pass DVOA1724
Rush DVOA1712
Overall DVOA1212
Pass DVOA1622
Rush DVOA26

Finishing that opening game with anything but a win is obviously a disappointment for the Colts, but they showed resolve to get back into the game in the fourth quarter, especially when they were a good kick from winning.

The Colts are without a key weapon this week, as WR Michael Pittman was ruled out with a quad injury he suffered in practice. His absence in the passing game will be felt, as he had a significant target share of 26.5% in Week 1. In Pittman’s absence, players like Parris Campbell, Ashton Dulin, Mo Alie-Cox and Nyheim Hines could see an uptick in usage. 

Indianapolis will obviously continue to lean heavily on Jonathan Taylor, who had 10 missed tackles forced last week. He managed 161 yards on the ground last time out, and he’ll look to dominate the Jags defensive front here.

The Jaguars offense, meanwhile, looked very different in their defeat to the Commanders, with the one-two punch of the running-back room being the starkest change from last season. It was very much a pairing with Travis Etienne getting 51% of snaps and James Robinson 49%.

Robinson did the hard graft on the ground and averaged six yards per game, grabbing two touchdowns, with one being his sole reception. It was notable that the Jaguars tried to use Etienne in space. His potential for explosive plays should mean some huge games this season; it’s just going to be tricky to predict them.

Betting Picks

The best receiving prop around for this game sits with the Jaguars’ new acquisition: Christian Kirk.

The former Texas A&M player endured a slow start to last week’s game, but by the end it was clear that he’s the key receiver on this offense, having been targeted 12 times.

Kirk played 51 of his 64 snaps from the slot and went off, converting his six catches into 117 yards. He was also third across the NFL for Air Yards with 128, behind just Davante Adams and Brandin Cooks.

That same Cooks faced this Colts secondary last week and had a big day himself, getting 82 yards with 131 air yards. Now Kirk faces that same defense, coming off a day in which he played 91% of snaps and is likely to have a game script favoring passing with the Jags likely to play from behind. You’ve got to play the Over on Kirk receiving yards when all the data is telling you that it’s the best play.

Pick: Christian Kirk Over 58.5 Receiving Yards | Bet to 62.5

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