Cowboys vs Titans Props: PrizePicks Plays for Dak Prescott, 2 More
Tom Pennington/Getty Images. Pictured: Dak Prescott.
I have zero interest in picking a side in Cowboys vs. Titans. However, I do have two player props I project value on.
My favorite way to pick NFL player props is using PrizePicks, an app that allows you to parlay together different props and wager real money on them in 30 states, including states where online betting access remains unavailable.
That said, here’s my PrizePicks card for Thursday Night Football.
Over 230.5 Passing Yards
This game is likely to get out of hand. The Titans have zero motivation to win this game, as they can win the AFC South with a victory next week no matter what happens this week, so they’ll likely be running second-stringers.
That isn’t the perfect game script for Dak Prescott, as the Cowboys may go rush-heavy with a big second-half lead.
But this is such a monstrous mismatch that Prescott should sneak over this line before the game enters garbage time.
Tennessee is a good rush defense, ranking second in Rush Defense DVOA, second in Rush EPA per play allowed, and first in Rush Success Rate allowed. Linebacker David Long leads a productive front seven, and Tennessee boasts arguably the best run-stuffing secondary in the NFL (Joshua Kalu, Kristian Fulton, and Caleb Farley all have a Pro Football Focus Rush Defense grade over 85, while Kevin Byard is at 76.1).
Opponents are averaging only 80 rushing yards per game at 3.6 yards per carry, both numbers rank second in the NFL.
Don’t run on these @Titans 😤
— NFL On Prime Video (@NFLonPrime) December 28, 2022
But Tennessee is just 17th in Defense DVOA because nobody can defend the pass. The Titans are 27th in Pass Defense DVOA and 26th in Pass EPA per play allowed, and only Minnesota has allowed more passing yards.
So, I’d expect Dallas to attack Tennessee through the air. If, as expected, the Cowboys blow out the Titans, it’ll be because Prescott threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns before halftime.
Prescott has done it before, as he’s eclipsed 230 passing yards in seven of his last eight games. Meanwhile, the Titans have allowed it before, as they’ve allowed 11 of 15 opposing quarterbacks to go over their passing yards total this season.
And we haven’t talked about the injuries, as several pass rush and coverage contributors are missing against an elite passing attack. Kristian Fulton is doubtful alongside Denico Autry, and Dylan Cole, Zach Cunningham, Bud Dupree, Amani Hooker, Josh Thompson, and Jeffery Simmons are all out.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Prescott for around 240 passing yards tonight, and given the matchup, I’m willing to take a shot with this PrizePicks line.
PICK: Over 230.5 pass yards
Chigoziem Okonkwo & Austin Hooper
Under 21 Receiving Yards
We are fading both Tennessee tight ends, mostly because of the projections.
The Action Labs Player Props tool shows a monster edge on Chigoziem Okonkwo and Austin Hooper, projecting both for around 11 receiving yards. Yet, PrizePicks is listing both of their receiving yards totals at 21.
The market is simply too high on both Tennessee tight ends. Both Okonkwo and Hooper have eclipsed their passing yards total in seven of the last eight games, but most of those passes came from Ryan Tannehill.
With Malik Willis under center last week, both fell short of 20 receiving yards and combined for only 30. Hooper received four targets but converted on only two, while Okonkwo received just two targets.
Tonight, it's apparently going to be Josh Dobbs under center for the Titans. That doesn't offer the passing game much of an upgrade.
Especially if Dallas is getting pressure on Dobbs, which is almost a given considering the Cowboys' fourth-highest pressure rate (24.3%) and the Titans' horrendous pass blocking (dead last in PFF’s pass-blocking grades).
For example, Tennessee tries to draw up a route release for Okonkwo here, but the Titans get very lost, and Willis hits the turf before Okonkwo can face the quarterback.
Much easier to get a sack when you are not blocked. The left tackle and wing tight end just watch Okoronkwo flow to the quarterback
— ᑭᖇO ᖴOOTᗷᗩᒪᒪ ᒍOᑌᖇᑎᗩᒪ 🏈 (@NFL_Journal) December 24, 2022
Dallas also matches up well with tight ends, ranking eighth in Pass Defense DVOA against tight ends, allowing only 41.2 yards per game to the position.
Given the matchup and our projections, it’s worth fading both Tennessee tight ends on your PrizePicks Thursday Night Football betting card.
PICK: Under 21 Receiving Yards for Okonkwo & Hooper