Cowboys vs Texans Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 14
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Dak Prescott.
- The biggest favorites in Week 14 are the Cowboys, who are laying 17.5 points against the Texans.
- Houston has benched Kyle Allen after two starts and is going back to Davis Mills.
- Dylan Wilkerson breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.
Cowboys vs Texans Odds
When looking for our Cowboys vs Texans pick, we see one of the most lopsided matchups of the season.
When the biggest surprises of this season are discussed, it is hard to leave out the Dallas Cowboys. Coming into the season, there was no question the Cowboys had it made on the defensive side of the ball. The young duo of Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs is very easy to build around, and Dallas has succeeded in doing so.
Offensively, Dallas had to navigate the loss of veteran receiver Amari Cooper. Even after Cooper's departure, as well as losing Dak Prescott to injury for several weeks, the Cowboys have managed to attain a 9-3 record and are in second place in the NFC East.
The Texans, on the other hand, have performed exactly to expectations! It just so happens those expectations were extremely low. The Texans are plagued with one of the worst rush defenses in the league, and have the second-lowest time of possession in the NFL.
Bookmakers are expecting a blowout, but can we find betting value in this game?
Cowboys vs Texans Matchup Analysis
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Cowboys vs Texans DVOA Breakdown
Bet Houston vs. Dallas at FanDuel
The Dallas Cowboys most recent game was a primetime blowout against the Indianapolis Colts. The box score was a bit bolstered due to some late turnovers and defensive scores from Dallas. However, we did get to see which personnel changes Mike McCarthy plans to make when the Cowboys acquire a big lead.
That is important because we could see a very similar situation against the Texans. The Cowboys are big favorites, what if they pull away? How would that influence personnel decisions and who will we see on the field?
Last week, we saw Cooper Rush take the field late in the game, which is important to note if we are expecting another blowout against the Texans.
In addition to the Cowboys removal of their star quarterback, we saw an interesting change in play calling. After returning from halftime with a 21-13 lead, we saw the Cowboys run the ball 15 times and throw the ball 11.
Dallas boasts one of the best backfields in the country in Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliot. That’s a 1-2 punch many teams won’t want to deal with, including the Texans. Houston is allowing nearly five yards per rush attempt, and the most cumulative rush yards on the season. Because their rush defense is so poor, teams tend to take advantage of this inefficiency.
Teams have tallied 416 rush attempts against the Texans this season, again, the most in the NFL. When teams are rushing all game, they are passing less. Teams have only attempted 355 passes against The Texans. That averages out to approximately 29.5 pass attempts per game.
The Texans have only had five quarterbacks attempt 30 or more passes against them this season. One of these instances was in a game that went to overtime against the Colts. Teams have felt no need to pass against the Texans. This isn’t all that surprising considering Houston spends most of the time trailing its opponent.
The Dallas Cowboys are huge favorites against the Texans, and if we see them take an early lead, I expect Dallas to get its run game involved. I am even entertaining the possibility that we see Rush before this game is over.
Prescott has only attempted 30 or more passes three times this season, and one of those came in an overtime thriller against the Green Bay Packers. The other 2 instances were 30 pass attempts on the dot.
Dallas can run the ball, and run the ball efficiently. I am betting on the Dallas Cowboys to get it done on the ground and to rest Prescott for the matchups ahead.
Pick: Dak Prescott Under 30.5 Pass Attempts | Bet to 29.5