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Titans vs Jaguars Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 14

Titans vs Jaguars Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 14 article feature image
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Silas Walker/Getty Images. Pictured: Derrick Henry.

  • The Titans are home favorites in a Week 14 divisional matchup against the Jaguars.
  • Tennessee is laying 3.5 points on Sunday in Nashville.
  • Landon Silinsky previews the game and makes his betting pick below.

Titans vs Jaguars Odds

Sunday, Dec. 11
1 p.m. ET
CBS
Titans Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-110
41.5
-178
Jaguars Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-114
41.5
+150
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

It’s important to note as we look for a Titans vs Jaguars pick that both teams were thoroughly embarrassed last week. Jacksonville got pasted 40-13 by Detroit, while Tennessee lost 35-10 to the Eagles.

The big question mark surrounding these teams’ first meeting of the season is the health of Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who’s questionable with a toe injury. Regardless, this game has a very low total of just 41.5 and there does not project to be a ton of scoring.

This is a very important game for the Jaguars in terms of their playoff hopes, especially in the division. Jacksonville is three games behind the Titans, but it’s still alive with two head-to-head matchups remaining. A win for Tennessee, though, would all but wrap up a third straight AFC South title.

Titans vs Jaguars Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Titans and Jaguars match up statistically:

Titans vs Jaguars DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 17 12
Pass DVOA 13 23
Rush DVOA 23 13
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 20 29
Pass DVOA 14 31
Rush DVOA 21 13

We know how the Titans want to move the ball, and it starts with the running game.

Tennessee ranks 29th in the NFL this season in pass rate over expectation and third in rush play rate. Last week, the Titans had to abandon their usual game plan in a hurry, falling behind the Eagles early and trailing virtually the entire game.

The Jaguars have done a good job limiting opposing running backs this season, giving up the eighth fewest yards per to the position while ranking 13th in rush defense DVOA. If Mike Vrabel was sharp, he would lean pass heavy in this spot, especially after Jared Goff just shredded this Jacksonville defense for 340 yards and two touchdowns. Unfortunately for the Titans, they’ll be without rookie standout WR Treylon Burks, who suffered a concussion last week vs. the Eagles.


Bet Jacksonville vs. Tennessee at FanDuel


As for the Jags offense, this is a spot where they’ll be passing quite a bit, especially if Lawrence is healthy. Tennessee ranks No. 1 in rush defense DVOA and No. 2 yards per carry allowed. Conversely, the Titans sit 22nd against the pass in both DVOA and yards per attempt. That’s good news for Jacksonville, as it sits 10th in the NFL in pass rate over expectation.

Lawrence did get in a limited practice on Friday, which bodes well for his chances of suiting up here. To make matters worse for the Titans defense, they’ll be without two cornerbacks this week in Trey Avery and Kristian Fulton. With Elijah Molden already on IR, they’ll be relying on a fourth stringer at one of their starting cornerback spots. Inside linebacker David Long will also be missing.

I could see more points being scored here than most people think, especially if the Titans use Derrick Henry in the passing game, as the Jags have been vulnerable to pass catching running backs.

Betting Picks

There are a lot of moving parts in this game, and it’s usually tough to handicap a game when both teams are coming off blowout losses.

However, in terms of just pure strengths vs. weaknesses, Jacksonville has the biggest edge against a poor and banged-up Tennessee secondary. The Titans only being a 3.5-point favorites, despite being at home and sitting three games better in the standings, says a lot about what Jacksonville’s chances are in this game.

Ultimately, I do not believe the Titans have the weaponry to score a ton of points in this spot. With so many defensive players sidelined, I could see the Jaguars getting and holding a lead here.

At full strength the Titans are the better team, but with both Burks and three important defensive players set to miss, I just don’t like their chances of winning by more than a field goal. Give me the Jaguars with the points here, as this game could easily come down to a last second kick either way.

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