Chiefs vs Jaguars: NFL Week 10 Odds, Picks, Prediction
David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Trevor Lawrence.
Chiefs vs Jaguars Odds
The Jaguars (3-6) have been Jekyll and Hyde this season, looking like a contender one week, only to disappoint the next. But a deeper look into the metrics reveal a team that is improving, and the eye test tells me they are a team gaining confidence.
Their comeback win over the Raiders was the first one-score game this season in which they came out victorious. Over the past three weeks, the Jaguars have a positive 9.6% offensive DVOA, good for 11th in the NFL.
There is value to be had in this game on the underdog against a team that has failed to cover the spread in every home they've played this season.
Chiefs vs. Jaguars Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Chiefs and Jaguars match up statistically:
Jaguars vs. Chiefs DVOA Breakdown
You’ll be hard pressed to find many 3-6 teams ranked in the top 15 in both offensive yards per play gained (5.7) and defensive yards per play allowed (5.4).
Trevor Lawrence is coming off a game in which he completed greater than 80% of his passes, moving around incredibly well inside the pocket to create throwing lanes when he needed to. The Jags had a stretch during their comeback in which they converted 8-of-10 third downs — almost all of those conversions can be attributed to Lawrence’s accuracy and athleticism.
After only averaging 2.5 rush attempts per game during the first month of the season, Lawrence has undoubtedly become more aggressive using his legs. His mobility has been on display, rushing 4.6 times per game over his last five contests, including on six occasions in Week 9. The Lawrence bust talk needs to cease; he is seventh in the NFL in EPA (expected points added) per dropback in 2022.
Jaguars +9.5 | Chiefs -9.5
The Chiefs defense has shown some cracks in their last four games.
While giving up 22.2 points per game over that span doesn’t sound terrible for a team with a premier offense, their rush defense in particular is rather worrisome for Chiefs fans (which I am). K.C.'s defense is the 28th-ranked DVOA rush defense over its last four games, giving up an average of 5.9 yards per carry (YPC). For context, the Chargers have the worst rushing defense in the NFL at 5.7 YPC allowed.
Travis Etienne has averaged 5.7 YPC on the season, and since Week 5, he has been even better at 6.2 YPC. I cannot envision many scenarios in this game where the Jaguars find themselves in difficult third down situations. Jacksonville has rushed for 71 first downs this season — seventh best in the league — and they have fewer attempts than all six teams above them.
The later the down, the more success the Jaguars have with the pass. On second downs, Lawrence leads an offense that has a 13.7% DVOA; on third and fourth down passes, that number increases to 47.1% (sixth-best in football). The Chiefs defense is the worst in the NFL on second down and league average on third down.
Given all this, I expect the Jaguars to move the ball up and down the field in this game.
Can Jacksonville's defense get enough stops in this contest? It’s a fair question.
Oddly, all three 40-point performances by the Chiefs this season have come on the road. Kansas City has averaged only 25.2 points per game at home this season, which has translated to teams like the Titans, Raiders and Chargers playing them tightly.
Patrick Mahomes is 14-19-1 (42.4%) against the spread (ATS) in his career at Arrowhead. In all games that the Mahomes-led Chiefs have been favored by 7 points or greater, K.C. is 12-17-1 (41.4%) ATS. The last time the Chiefs beat a team by more than one-possession season in Kansas City (excluding the Steelers led by a watered-down Ben Roethlisberger) was Dec. 12, 2021, against the Raiders.
The Jaguars have six losses this season, but none of them were by more than one possession. Since the beginning of 2019, in games where greater than 60% of the public tickets were on the Chiefs at home, they have covered only twice in ten opportunities. This is a very difficult spot for the Chiefs when taking into consideration they are coming off a primetime game in which their offense played 91 snaps. Not to mention next week they have another primetime game against their new-age AFC rival, the Chargers.
While I am expecting a lot of points in this game, the safest bet to make is Jaguars plus the points. The sportsbooks have no choice but to open this number at an inflated price behind the top scoring offense in football. I will gladly side with the underdog to comfortably keep pace.
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