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Chiefs-Rams MNF Betting Preview: All the Angles for This Historic Matchup

Nov 19, 2018 12:00 AM EST

Betting odds: Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams

  • Spread: Rams -3
  • Over/Under: 63
  • Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: ESPN

>> All odds as of Sunday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: When the game was set to be played in Mexico City, the Rams were 2.5-points favorites and had received just about 40% of spread bets. When the line re-opened at -3.5/-4 after the location switch to LA, bettors fell in love with the Chiefs even more.

Kansas City is getting an insane 77% of spread bets as of writing (see live data here), which is close to a record for an underdog. (The current mark is 80%.)

Given all that support, the line has moved down to a consensus number of Los Angeles -3 at the time of writing.

It would be notable if it closed there — just a half-point above the Mexico City line despite the game moving from a neutral field to LA. (Home-field advantage is typically worth 2-3 points in the NFL.) Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The game moving from Mexico to LA is great for the Rams. In games that feature two teams with winning percentages above .900, the home squad has gone 60-29-1 straight up and 51-36-3 against the spread, per our Bet Labs data. John Ewing

Historic over/under: The 63 over/under is projected to be the largest in recorded NFL history.

We’ve seen 12 games close with a total of 58 or higher; the over has gone 9-2-1 in those games. Three games have closed with an over/under of 58 or higher over the past two seasons. The over cashed in all three, going over the total by an average of 14 points per game. Abrams

Did you know? Monday Night Football in Los Angeles is going to be a beautiful evening, with a projected forecast of 65 degrees and virtually no wind. Over the last three seasons, the Rams have played 19 games at home in the Coliseum, this will be just the 7th game with the temperature above 60 degrees and no wind, in those games the over is 5-1, going over the total by 12.8 PPG.Evan Abrams

Metrics that matter: The Rams are averaging more than 6.5 yards per play on offense this season.

Home teams with that prolific of an offense tend to go over the total (88-58-2 record — 60.3% — since 2003). That improves to 28-15 (65.1%) in November or later, going over by 3.3 points per game.

The Chiefs are also averaging more than 6.5 yards on offense. Only six games (including playoffs) have featured two offenses averaging at least 6.5 yards per play since 2003.

The over is 5-1 in those games, clearing the total by an average of 10.5 points per game. Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Both running games vs. both run defenses

No two running backs have amassed more rushing yardage since the start of last season than Todd Gurley (2,293 yards) and Kareem Hunt (2,081).

The two star runners should have no problem adding to their respective totals against defenses that regularly allow chunk gains on the ground.

The Rams’ 5.2 yards per carry allowed is second-worst in the league, while the Chiefs are only one spot better (5.1). Both also rank bottom-four in Football Outsiders’ rushing DVOA. Raybon

Sneaky storyline: Rams’ passing success rate without Cooper Kupp

Kupp was forced from the Rams’ Week 6 game due to injury then missed Weeks 7 and 8. With Kupp out of the lineup, Sean McVay’s offense ranked an unbefitting 22nd in pass success rate — a far cry from their ranking of second in all other games with Kupp in the lineup (including last week when he played 83% of the snaps and caught five balls before tearing his ACL).

Kupp was invaluable as an underneath route runner for Jared Goff, running 69% of his routes from inside and averaging the seventh-most yards per route run (2.42).

McVay will undoubtedly find a way to adjust — likely by deploying Robert Woods, who ranks 17th in yards per route run from the slot — but the pressure will be on second-year man Josh Reynolds to pick up the slack from the outside. Raybon

Which team is healthier? Rams

The Rams lost Kupp (torn ACL) for the season, but have a clear injury report as far as their active roster is concerned.

The Chiefs aren’t quite as lucky. They’ve yet to announce an official timetable for safety Eric Berry’s (heel) return, while Sammy Watkins (foot, questionable)  isn’t guaranteed to suit up.

Center Mitch Morse (concussion) was again ruled out, though linebacker Frank Zombo (hamstring) will suit up after practicing in full all week. Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: There are plenty of mismatches in favor of both offenses, but none are greater than the Rams’ No. 1 ranked offensive line in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards per rush vs. the Chiefs’ 32nd-ranked defensive line.

Gurley has easily the week’s greatest advantage in combined adjusted line yards per rush. He carries an astronomical 41.4-point projected ceiling in our FantasyLabs Pro Models. Hartitz

Bets to Watch

Chiefs +3: The Chiefs are trending in the right direction. Their offense is world class, and the defense has been getting incrementally better as the season has wore on.

The Rams started the season looking unbeatable, but that defense has taken some steps back. It got torched by the Saints and let the Packers and Seahawks hang around all game. I think Andy Reid will have a plan to pick on former Chief Marcus Peters.

Shop around for the hook; it’d be nice to have that extra half-point in what should be a close game. BlackJack Fletcher

Chiefs +148: I agree with a lot of BlackJack’s points above, but I would rather just take the Chiefs to win straight up.

With the total at 63, I think the value of getting points matters less, although it’s possible we do end up with a 43-40 game like we saw the Chiefs play in New England. I think the Rams’ home-field advantage is minimal, especially since they have to travel this week after practicing in Colorado, anyway.

I like this price for the Chiefs to get the outright win.Travis Reed


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

Credit:

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Kareem Hunt and Patrick Mahomes (left), Todd Gurley and Jared Goff (right)

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