Lions vs 49ers Best Bets: Picks for the NFC Championship Game

Lions vs 49ers Best Bets: Picks for the NFC Championship Game

We are oh-so close to the 2024 Super Bowl, but before we look toward the big game, Action Network’s staff has Lions vs 49ers Best Bets: Picks for the NFC Championship Game.

The Lions vs 49ers spread has hovered around 49ers -6.5 to -7.5 all week. It opened at 7.5 and then went down to 6.5, but sharp money moved it back up to -7.5. That's good news for two of our experts, who are backing Detroit to cover the spread. We also have a team total over and a bevy of player props for key players, including Jared Goff, Deebo Samuel, Jahmyr Gibbs, Brandon Aiyuk and Brock Purdy.

Check out our Lions vs 49ers best bets below.

By Anthony Dabbundo

Detroit’s secondary ranks 32nd in explosive pass defense allowed and now has to face the most explosive passing offense in the NFL. That’s the glaring matchup issue for the Lions as they attempt to slow down a San Francisco offense that has been a supernova for the majority of the season.

The biggest question is whether Detroit’s top-ranked rush defense, according to DVOA, can slow down the 49ers' run game and force Brock Purdy to exclusively beat them through the air. The Lions are also fourth in rush EPA allowed, which is considerably better than Green Bay.

Detroit’s pass rush ranked first in pressure rate this season. The pass rush win rate numbers aren’t nearly as dominant for Detroit, but the 49ers' offensive line took a noticeable step back in their numbers this season. Purdy operated well under pressure for most of the year and head coach Kyle Shanahan had enough offensive talent at his disposal to easily overcome this deficiency, but the 49ers were below league average in pressure rate allowed.

A look at the tale of the tape between these teams, using per-drive stats, paints a picture that San Francisco is overvalued because of holes in its defense. The 49ers aren’t generating as much pressure as you’d expect given the talent, and the defense is 28th in rush EPA since Week 9.

Offensive yards per drive: SF 1, DET 5
Defensive yards per drive allowed: SF 18, DET 22
Net yards per drive: SF 2, DET 8

Another note: In-game decision-making by coaches isn’t as valuable of a difference-maker as social media discourse suggests. It does matter at the margins though, and both coaches will coach toward helping the underdog improve their chances to win this game with their in-game decisions.

We’ve seen Shanahan’s extreme conservatism hurt his teams in the past, and his end-of-half sequence against Green Bay nearly cost them the game. Even when he has the superior team, like he will on Sunday, Shanahan will kick field goals and punt in situations where it would be best to go for it.

Compare this to Dan Campbell, whose fourth-down aggression will be critically important toward keeping San Francisco’s dominant offense on the sideline as much as possible. Campbell’s decisions always have a chance of backfiring, but as a touchdown road underdog in the NFC Championship game, his aggression is a given and baked into Detroit’s identity.

Detroit has a top-five run offense and the 49ers' inconsistent rush defense is the Lions' path to shortening the game. The Packers held the Niners to just three first-half possessions and the Lions just finished a game with a 61% success rate on early downs against a very good Tampa Bay run defense. If Detroit can replicate that rushing success, it'll be competitive in this game.

Purdy really struggled in the rainy conditions, but we now have a two full-game playoff sample of him not executing nearly as well as he did in the regular season (Dallas last year and Green Bay this year).

Was it the rain? I’ll pay to find out.

By Simon Hunter

Another week of the books making Purdy a seven-point favorite in the playoffs. That's a bold strategy, Cotton — let's see if it pays off for 'em.

Can we for once bet on the feel-good story of the season and have it work out for us? Of course, I’m taking the Lions moneyline. It’s damn near +300. But the fact we can get +7/+7.5 on a team that never stops fighting is the play.

The backdoor will always be open. The Lions are one of the few teams that can do nothing for two quarters and then score a touchdown on four straight possessions.

Ben Johnson and Jared Goff have been in lockstep all season. People are really trying to push the Goff outdoors noise this week. It's supposed to be 60 degrees with no wind on Sunday night. He also went on the road this season outdoors and beat Tampa Bay and Green Bay by double digits. Oh, and the Chiefs in Week 1.

The moment feels like it’s never too big for Goff, who’s already made a Super Bowl run in his career. He’s also a much better quarterback now than he was back then with the Rams.

The 49ers sacked the opposing QB at a rate of 4.2% this season. When Goff faces teams that has a rate of 4% or higher, he is 28-16-1 ATS in his career, including 15-4 ATS as a Lion and 7-1 ATS this season.

The Lions have the offensive weapons to keep this close. I think we see their defense play an all-or-nothing style in an attempt to get Purdy uncomfortable and force him to beat them down the field. We know that’s the Lions' biggest weakness. They’ve struggle all season against the pass, but still went 13-6 ATS.

I have to take this number and throw a little on the moneyline.

Pick: Lions +7.5 (-115)

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By Brandon Anderson

The one thing I'm most confident in this weekend is that the 49ers will score.

Everyone agrees this is the best offense and worst defense left playing, but I think folks are missing just how big the gap is. San Francisco's offense has lapped the league when Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams are healthy. The 49ers rank first in rushing DVOA and passing DVOA by so much that they should really leave Nos. 2-6 empty to show how far the 49ers are ahead of the field.

The Lions defense played only seven games against an opponent that finished in the top half of the league in DVOA. One of those games was Week 1 against the Chiefs, who were debuting two new tackles and missing Travis Kelce. Another was Week 4 against a young Packers offense that hadn't come together yet. Detroit went 1-4 in the other five games with a single one-point win over the Rams and allowed 29.4 points per game and 416 yards per game.

Detroit's defense has been gashed by top offenses, and lately, gashed by just about anyone who can throw the football. In the last five games alone, the Lions allowed 411 and 396 yards in two Nick Mullens games, 345 to Dak Prescott, 367 to Matthew Stafford and 349 to Baker Mayfield. That's 374 yards per game over five games — Brock Purdy is +500 to hit 340 yards at DraftKings, by the way.

Purdy has lost five games as a starter. Three of those came against swarming, nasty Browns, Ravens and Vikings defenses, and another came when he literally lost the ability to throw the ball. The 49ers scored 19 or less in all five losses. In 21 Purdy wins, they average 32.7 points per game and have scored at least 27 all but three times!

That is a remarkable floor for a historically good offense, likely putting us one field goal away from an over — unless the 49ers lose. The Niners have scored 30 or more in 15-of-21 Purdy wins (71%). And remember, Dan Campbell loves to play aggressive and will keep pushing late, which could mean several turnovers on downs and short-field scoring opportunities for San Francisco.

I think the 49ers score at least 30, and I'm compelled to take the Niners' team total escalator.

San Francisco has scored at least 34 in 10 of Purdy's 21 wins. We can play over 33.5 Niners points at +230 at DraftKings. The highest alt I see is over 39.5 at +470. The Lions allowed 37-plus three times this season, and the 49ers scored 42-plus three times, including against the Cowboys and Eagles.

Pick: 49ers Team Total Over 28.5 (-113)

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By Billy Ward

Data on which team won the opening coin toss and what they chose to do with that win — kick or receive — are frustratingly hard to come by in the NFL. With that said, as a longtime Lions fan, I couldn’t help but notice something in the playoffs.

In both games so far, Detroit won the opening coin toss. Most coaches now choose to defer possession to the start of the second half – but not Dan Campbell. The uber-aggressive Campbell has chosen to receive the opening kick in both Lions playoff games, which has led to Detroit scoring first in both games — though not on the opening drive in one of the two.

Assuming the 49ers continue to go with the more traditional option of kicking off, that nearly guarantees Detroit gets the first crack at possession. While that doesn’t mean they’ll score against a tough 49ers defense, it’s enough that +120 on them scoring first is a strong bet.

For what it’s worth, San Francisco allowed Green Bay to score on the opening drive last week, and Detroit has a far more dangerous offense.

Pick: Lions To Score First (+120)

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By Grant Neiffer

We haven't had to experience it much this season since Jared Goff played indoors for the vast majority of his games, but he is an entirely different quarterback outdoors.

Goff has only played five games outside this season, and he has hit this under three times. Looking back to last season, the numbers are drastically worse, with Goff only hitting the over three times in his last 10 games played outside.

The matchup for Detroit is not one that really lends itself to the pass. The 49ers have one of the top pass defenses, ranking in the top four in pass DVOA but near the middle of the pack in run defense, so we can safely assume that the Lions are going to be leaning on the ground game.

This line should be at least 10 yards lower, and I would hit it all the way down to 250.5.

Pick: Jared Goff Under 260.5 Passing Yards (-115)

By Ricky Henne

A pass defense that was a sieve throughout the regular season — allowing the third-most yards per game (245.8) — continues to be picked apart in the postseason.

Matthew Stafford threw for 367 yards in the Wild Card Round while Baker Mayfield carved the Lions up for 349 in the Divisional Round. It continues a troubling trend that plagued the team all season, particularly down the stretch. Detroit gave up 411 yards to Nick Mullens in Week 16 and 396 in Week 18, with a 345-yard performance by Dak Prescott sandwiched in between.

Now Detroit has to deal with a 49ers passing attack that ranked first in DVOA during the regular season. Brock Purdy was shaky last week, but the elements likely played a part as he’s struggled in similar conditions in the past. Fortunately for the 49ers, the forecast currently calls for sunny skies with a temperature in the 70s.

A variable here is the status of Deebo Samuel. San Francisco’s success with him in the lineup compared to without is well documented. This number appears to be easily attainable even if Samuel weren't active.

Purdy hasn’t hit this number since a 368-yard performance against the Seahawks. However, this is a bet against Detroit more than fully believing in Purdy. Quarterbacks have simply been too profitable against the Lions of late for me to not take a stab at it, even if I have concerns.

This bet has been offered as low as 274.5 and as high as 279.5, so be sure to shop around. Personally, I wouldn’t take it much higher than 279.5.

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By Brandon Anderson

I've had a hard time figuring out whether Detroit will score in this game. San Francisco's defense is a bit overrated by the numbers, and Ben Johnson's schemes are a mismatch against Steve Wilks'. But Detroit's offense isn't particularly healthy and has laid eggs at times, not to mention I don't trust Jared Goff outdoors.

Detroit should definitely find success on the ground, though. The 49ers were league average against the run this season and worse late. They were actually pretty good up the middle, where Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw can clean up, but struggled mightily on runs outside the tackles.

That's why I expect this to be a Jahmyr Gibbs game, not a David Montgomery one. Gibbs is the lightning to Montgomery's thunder. His speed is electric and he can bust a long run at any time. Even though his touches haven't always been consistent this season, Gibbs has at least one 14-yard run in 13-of-17 games (76%), with a median longest rush of 21 yards.

This line is too low. I don't trust the touches or game script enough to play yards overs or escalators, but I don't mind them if you disagree with my read on the game.

If you think Detroit wins, you'll probably need some help by way of San Francisco mistakes, most likely from Brock Purdy. He's thrown nine interceptions in San Francisco's four losses, with multiple picks in all but one. Purdy is +105 to throw at least one pick and +500 at bet365 to throw two.

Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Longest Rush Over 14.5 Yards (-115)

By Tony Sartori

I was waiting for Deebo Samuel to get the clearance to play to place this wager, but I was itching for the chance after Detroit cornerback C.J. Gardner-Johnson had this to say about the receiver: "I can guard you. You can't run routes, you're a running back".

Gardner-Johnson gave unnecessary bulletin-board material to Samuel and the 49ers offense, something you just don't do unprovoked. San Francisco is clearly the better team, and now Gardner-Johnson has lit a fire under its offense, or at least the very talented Samuel, for absolutely no reason.

But I will give Gardner-Johnson credit for one thing: he wasn't wrong that Samuel is also a running back. Even if Samuel doesn't score through the air, he is a threat to score on the ground, which could come to fruition in this matchup against a Detroit defense that finished 20th in yards allowed per game and 23rd in points allowed per game.

We are catching a good number because Samuel has been dealing with injuries, but this is still a guy who has scored six touchdowns over his last seven games. He's only faced Detroit once in his career, but in that game he hauled in nine catches for 189 yards and a touchdown.

At the time of this writing, the best number is +125 at Caesars, a line that is five-to-38 cents longer than the rest of the market. I would play this number to +115.

Pick: Deebo Samuel Anytime TD (+125)

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By John LanFranca

Brandon Aiyuk should be featured in a matchup against a Lions defense that is struggling badly to defend the pass. Detroit finished the regular season 23rd in DVOA against opposing WR1s, specifically. This Lions defense continues to surrender an incredible amount of yards through the air, even in their two playoff victories.

Over their last five games, the Lions defense has given up 373 passing yards per game, and their inability to limit the opposition's best receiving option has been a glaring weakness. They have been tasked with defending Mike Evans, Puka Nacua, CeeDee Lamb, and Justin Jefferson (twice) over their last five contests. Those four players combined for an astounding 888 receiving yards in those five games, with the worst performance of the bunch being Jefferson's 141 yards in Week 16.

With Deebo Samuel's role potentially limited due to injury, and the weather looking relatively clear, my confidence in Aiyuk having a big statistical performance rises. In the eight games in which Aiyuk has been targeted seven or more times this season, he has earned 76 or more yards on six occasions, averaging 96.3 yards per game.

Play Aiyuk over 75.5 receiving yards up to 76.5.

Pick: Brandon Aiyuk Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-110)