The Ultimately NFL Draft Prop Betting Guide: 30 First-Round Predictions

The Ultimately NFL Draft Prop Betting Guide: 30 First-Round Predictions article feature image
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Jamie Schwaberow/NCAA Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Trey Lance

Editor’s Note: Odds focused on the No. 3 pick in the NFL Draft have changed significantly over the past 24 hours. After Mac Jones was the favorite at -200, Trey Lance has taken his place at -200 at FanDuel as of Thursday afternoon.


NFL Draft Prop Betting

Pick
Penei Sewell Over 5.5 (-165)
Ja’Marr Chase Under 6.5 (-236)
Trevon Moehrig No. 1 Safety (-370)
Alijah Vera-Tucker Under 17.5 (-138)
Teven Jenkins Under 24.5 (-125)
Christian Barmore Over 23.5 (-149)
First 3 RBs Drafted In Order (Various Odds)
Round 1 QBs Under 5.5 (-500)
Mac Jones No. 3 (-200)
Trey Lance Over 6.5 (+170)

Round 1 of the 2021 NFL Draft is one day away. The prop market is robust this year, and that’s great for us.

Last year, I was 124-88-1 (+26.2 units) betting the NFL draft and the No. 6 mocker in the FantasyPros accuracy contest. In 2019, I was 54-29 (+17.7 units) on the draft and was also a top-20 mocker in the FantasyPros accuracy contest and Mock Draft Database contest.

There’s no guarantee I’ll have similar success this year, but I do like a lot of the props out there.

To see the odds I’ve assigned to almost every prop on the board as well as my active prop portfolio, check out the Action Labs NFL Draft Insider Props Tool.

Here are my 10 favorite props one day away from the NFL draft.


More Expert NFL Draft Props: Matthew Freedman | Sean Koerner | Scott Smith | Mike Calabrese


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Penei Sewell Over 5.5: -165 at PointsBet

This is essentially a bet that LSU WR Ja’Marr Chase — instead of Sewell — will go to the Bengals.

Sewell is the best offensive tackle in this class, and the Bengals would be smart to draft Sewell to protect franchise quarterback Joe Burrow, but the Bengals are expected to reunite Burrow with his No. 1 receiver in college, and that means Sewell will slide down the board.

Pick: Sewell Over 5.5 (-165), 1.65 units
Limit: -250
Bet Now: PointsBet

Ja’Marr Chase Under 6.5: -236 at PointsBet

Chase is easily the top receiver in this class, and he should go near the top of the draft.

The Bengals look very much locked onto him at No. 5, and if they pass on him, the Dolphins will likely take him at No. 6.

While I rely on my own research, I also take a “wisdom of the crowds” approach by surveying an index of mock drafts. I find that these drafts — created by experts with established records of success — collectively give me a good sense of the realistic range of outcomes for what we might see with any given player or pick.

In 90% of these surveyed mocks Chase goes before pick No. 7.

Pick: Chase Under 6.5 (-236), 1 unit
Limit: -750
Bet Now: PointsBet

Trevon Moehrig No. 1 Safety: -370 at FanDuel

Here’s another bet with heavy juice and yet not enough juice. On my top 100 big board, Moehrig is easily the top safety in the class with his ranking of No. 23. The two safeties who could potentially challenge him for the top spot — Richie Grant and Jevon Holland — are ranked in the 50s.

Regardless of the big board you consult, you’ll see Moehrig well ahead of every other safety in the class.

And in not one mock I’ve seen has a safety gone ahead of Moehrig.

Pick: Moehrig No. 1 S (-370), 1 unit
Limit: -750
Bet Now: FanDuel

Alijah Vera-Tucker Under 17.5: -138 at FOX Bet

Vera-Tucker has guard/tackle versatility and is one of the top offensive linemen in the class regardless of wherever he ultimately lines up.

Picks No. 12-17 are his wheelhouse, and in 80% of indexed mocks, Vera-Tucker has gone before pick No. 18.

Pick: Vera-Tucker Under 17.5 (-138), 1.38 units
Limit: -300
Bet Now: Fox Bet

Teven Jenkins Under 24.5: -125 at BetMGM

Jenkins is a near-unanimous Round 1 offensive tackle, and almost every team between picks Nos. 17-24 could draft one. Jenkins goes off the board before pick No. 25 in a supermajority of sharp mocks.

Pick: Jenkins Under 24.5 (-125), 1.25 units
Limit: -350
Bet Now: BetMGM

Christian Barmore Over 23.5: -149 at PointsBet

Barmore is easily the top interior defensive lineman in the class, but there’s no clear landing spot for him in the top 23, as no team has a truly pressing need at defensive tackle.

As a result, Barmore could fall down the board and even out of Round 1.

In only one sharp mock have I seen Barmore go higher than No. 24.

Pick: Barmore Over 23.5 (-149), 1.49 unit
Limit: -400
Bet Now: PointsBet

First 3 RBs Drafted in Order: Various Odds at FanDuel

  • Najee Harris, Javonte Williams & Travis Etienne: +1100
  • Travis Etienne, Javonte Williams & Najee Harris: +1400
  • Javonte Williams, Travis Etienne & Najee Harris: +3400
  • Javonte Williams, Najee Harris & Travis Etienne: +6000

Williams is closer to Harris and Etienne than the other backs in this class, and the three of them in some combination are highly likely to be the first players off the board at their position.

The NFL is high on Williams, who could sneak into the bottom of Round 1, and he has an under-appreciated shot of overtaking either Harris or Etienne in the draft.

Betting on all four of these trifectas is a coordinated way to wager that Williams will finish better than third in the three-man backfield race.

Pick: Harris, Williams & Etienne (+1100), 0.25 units
Pick: Etienne, Williams & Harris (+1400), 0.25 units
Pick: Williams, Etienne & Harris (+3400), 0.25 units
Pick: Williams, Harris & Etienne (+6000), 0.25 units
Bet Now: FanDuel

Round 1 QBs Under 5.5: -500 at BetMGM

Bet this to the moon.

Benjamin Robinson of Grinding the Mocks did a great study at Football Outsiders, noting that quarterbacks slide down the board relative to where they are mocked. Think of Drew Lock sliding to Round 2 a couple years ago when everyone had him mocked in Round 1.

Everyone assumes that the Big Five will all go in Round 1, but one of them could slide. Lamar Jackson almost fell out of Round 1 a few years ago.

And even if all five quarterbacks go in Round 1, which is likely, there still has to be a sixth passer in the top 32 for the over to hit, and no player outside the Big Five is generating anything close to Round 1 hype.

Only once in NFL history — with that all-time great 1983 class with John Elway, Dan Marino and Jim Kelly — have we seen six quarterbacks go in Round 1.

The odds of it happening in this draft are maybe 1%, and even that feels high.

I love the under almost regardless of the juice.

Pick: Round 1 QBs Under 5.5 (-500), 1 unit
Limit: -2000
Bet Now: BetMGM

Mac Jones No. 3: -200 at BetMGM

I’ve written extensively — both in my mid-April mock draft and in my Mac Jones prospect profile — about why I think he will be selected No. 3 by the 49ers as the third quarterback off the board.

The recent Kyle Shanahan-John Lynch press conference screamed: “We’re taking our guy, and our guy is Jones, and please don’t hate us.”

Pick: Jones No. 3 (-200), 2 units
Limit: -250
Bet Now: BetMGM

Trey Lance Over 6.5: +170 at Bet365

The 49ers seem increasingly likely to go with Jones at No. 3, and the Falcons and Bengals are regularly slated for tight end Kyle Pitts and Chase at Nos. 4-5, so Lance will probably need to go No. 6 for the under to hit.

Lance is a promising prospect, but No. 6 feels too early for a prospect as developmental as he is.

Besides, the Dolphins are set at quarterback and might not find a potential trade partner for the pick.

Pick: Lance Over 6.5 (+170), 1 unit
Limit: +100
Bet Now: Bet365


NFL Draft Props I Added Day 1

In addition to my 10 favorite draft props, here’s a thread of my 25 favorite over/under bets:

1/ My mock is done. I will write the article for it after I update the @ActionLabs_HQ draft tool.

Here are 25 over/unders I've just bet based on my mock.

Round 1 QBs under 5.5: -500 at BetMGM. 1 unit.

It's not sexy, but it's one of my favorites.https://t.co/g5cV3HpeVi

— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 29, 2021

3/ Jaycee Horn under 12.5: -150 at Bet365. 1.5 units.

I doubt Horn gets past PHI at No. 12.https://t.co/851snc8a5m

— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 29, 2021

5/ Justin Fields over 7.5: +110 at BetMGM. 1 unit

I'm expecting a draft day slide. And even if that doesn't happen, Fields has one real shot for the under — a trade at Nos. 6-7 — and I'll take plus money to bet against a trade.https://t.co/t6Vvaqg4H1

— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 29, 2021

7/ Kwity Paye over 16.5: -125 at PointsBet. 1.25 units.

If Paye doesn't go No. 11 to NYG, then No. 18 to MIA looks like the first likely landing spot.https://t.co/3HmCLJQ9zU

— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 29, 2021

9/ Teven Jenkins under 24.5: -134 at DraftKings. 1.34 units.

Picks Nos. 17-24 are the wheelhouse for Jenkins.https://t.co/BnoAA1vZE1

— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 29, 2021

11/ Azeez Ojulari over 25.5: -112 at DraftKings. 1.12 units.

I have Ojulari slated for No. 23 right now, but I'm fully aware there's a good chance he could fall out of Round 1 entirely.https://t.co/BnoAA1vZE1

— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 29, 2021

13/ Jamin Davis under 26.5: -105 at BetMGM. 1.05 units

Commonly mocked to WAS & CLE at Nos. 19 & 26.https://t.co/t6Vvaqg4H1

— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 29, 2021

15/ Travis Etienne under 32.5: +100 at FOX Bet. 1 unit.

Etienne is now likelier than not to go in Round 1.https://t.co/Ll7aZEUhbe

— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 29, 2021

17/ Christian Barmore over 23.5: -135 at PointsBet. 1.35 units.

Slam it. In no recent mock have I seen Barmore go before pick No. 24.https://t.co/3HmCLJQ9zU

— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 29, 2021

19/ Kadarius Toney over 30.5: -115 at PointsBet. 1.15 units.

I think it's likelier than not that Toney goes on Day 2.https://t.co/3HmCLJQ9zU

— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 29, 2021

21/ Round 1 RBs over 1.5: +175 at BetMGM. 1 unit.

I bet that Harris & Etienne go in Round 1.https://t.co/t6Vvaqg4H1

— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 29, 2021

23/ Round 1 LBs under 4.5: -175 at BetMGM. 1.75 units.

Only 4 true LBs are slotted for Round 1, and with the EDGE/OLB Ojulari likely to be qualified as DL and a candidate to fall out of Day 1, the under offers too much value to pass up.https://t.co/t6Vvaqg4H1

— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 29, 2021

25/ Round 1 TEs under 1.5: -550 at William Hill. 1 unit.

It's Kyle Pitts in Round 1, and that's it … unless the Jaguars do something stupid with Pat Freiermuth.https://t.co/k6gGacKau4

— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 29, 2021

 


Matthew Freedman is 1,018-828-37 (55.1%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

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