Our football staff is focused on seven of Sunday's biggest games for our NFL predictions in Week 10 on November 15.
First, we'll target Chiefs vs Falcons and Bills vs Jets in the early window. Later in the afternoon, we have a picks for 49ers vs Cowboys. We also have picks for Vikings vs. Packers, Steelers vs. Bengals, and more.
Let's dive into our expert NFL picks and best bets for the Week 10 Sunday slate.
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NFL Predictions & Picks — Week 10
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
  | 8:20 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Chiefs vs Falcons
I believe we have hit the bottom of the market on the Falcons. Despite their ugly showing against Green Bay, this matchup sets up perfectly for them as a home underdog.
The Chiefs are stepping into their third road game in four weeks, a grueling schedule that will test their already limited offense.
Patrick Mahomes is clearly not operating at 100%, and his underlying metrics reflect that. Over his last four games, his average depth of target has plummeted to staggering lows (3.6, 4.7, 4.7, and 3.6).
Kansas City has morphed into a conservative, dink-and-dunk offense. More concerning is that Mahomes is having his worst season by far when placed under duress.
That plays directly into the hands of the Falcons, who are generating pressure at a top-five rate in the NFL.
When you combine an elite pass rush with a compromised Chiefs offense struggling against pressure, you have a clear recipe for defensive stops. I'm backing the home 'dog to pull the outright upset.
Pick: Falcons Moneyline (+150)
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Bills vs Jets
By Stuckey
When the Jets offense is fully healthy, they operate at a top-10 level, and we are finally going to see that complete unit on the field this week.
The return of Dylan Parham at guard is a huge foundational piece for this offensive line, and getting Breece Hall fully integrated back into the backfield positions Geno Smith for a ceiling performance.
When Smith is kept clean in the pocket, his underlying metrics are legit.
While the Jets have been victims of horrific late-game variance, their overall point differential suggests they grade out much closer to a 3.5-win team rather than their current 2-7 record.
The Bills, on the other hand, are overrated defensively. They have padded their statistics against a soft schedule of opposing quarterbacks, including Bo Nix twice, Sam Darnold, and the broken Chargers offense.
Ten points is simply far too generous for an offense that is finally healthy and capable of moving the chains against a fraudulent defense.
Pick: Jets +8.5 (-112)
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Texans vs Browns
By Stuckey
I lean toward the under in this matchup. Houston is relying heavily on 11-personnel, but it is facing an elite Browns pass defense that ranks fourth in the NFL in dropback success rate.
On the other side, Deshaun Watson is highly prone to taking drive-killing sacks, which will derail Cleveland's offense against a Texans defensive front that can generate consistent pressure when playing from ahead.
Pick: Under 40.5 (-115)
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Vikings vs Packers
By Stuckey
The Vikings are stepping into a nightmare of a situational spot for this rivalry game. In Week 9, their defense was forced to stay on the field for an exhausting 42 minutes, defending over 75 total snaps.
That physical toll has resulted in key injuries heading into a short week, with linebacker Blake Cashman out with a concussion. To compound their issues, Kirk Cousins is stepping in to make his first start since getting traded on a short week of preparation, which is a recipe for timing and communication breakdowns.
The Packers, meanwhile, are quietly operating at an elite level defensively. Jonathan Gannon is doing a tremendous schematic job, and this unit has played at a top-five rate over the past month.
Green Bay dominated the first meeting between these two teams — outgaining Minnesota by roughly 200 yards before a late-game collapse — and it will be prepared for the looks Brian Flores brings.
I expect the Packers to secure their in-season revenge comfortably.
Pick: Packers -3 (-112)
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Rams vs Cardinals
This game is going to be ugly, methodical, and devoid of explosive plays.
The Rams offense is a complete shell of itself. Matthew Stafford is dealing with an arm issue, and his ability to push the ball vertically has vanished. To make matters worse, the wide receiver room is decimated, missing Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and Jordan Whittington.
Sean McVay will be forced to play a condensed offense featuring heavy tight-end sets.
The Rams' lack of explosiveness was glaring last week when they failed to record a single first down on their first five drives.
The Cardinals are in an equally dire situation offensively. Rookie Carson Beck is making his first career start behind a patchwork offensive line, missing his starting center and left tackle.
Beck struggled under pressure in college, and now he faces Aaron Donald and Myles Garrett with hardly any reliable downfield weapons.
Pick: Under 39.5 (-112)
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49ers vs Cowboys
The 49ers are way beyond due for some red-zone touchdown regression, as they are currently converting 88% of their red-zone trips into touchdowns.
However, the Niners offense remains incredibly potent on a fast track, and San Francisco is an impressive 12-1 to the first-half over on the road since the start of last season.
Even with the Cowboys defense showing recent improvements thanks to the help of defensive assistant Mike Pettine, this game profiles as a high-scoring shootout where both offenses will find the end zone frequently in a dome environment.
Pick: Over 55.5 (-118)
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Steelers vs Bengals
I'm not rushing to the window, but I lean toward taking the points with Pittsburgh.
While the Steelers have benefited from the seventh-easiest schedule in the league, their offensive line has been spectacular, ranking in the top three in pass block win rate.
Jaylen Warren is running the ball very well, and the offense is firing on all cylinders.
The situational advantage is also entirely in Pittsburgh's favor. The Steelers are coming off a bye week while the Bengals are returning from an international game in Spain.
Getting a divisional road underdog with a clear rest advantage in a primetime spot is a compelling angle.
Pick: Steelers +3.5 (-110)
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