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NFL Week 11 Predictions: 7 Data-Driven Picks for Eagles vs Colts, Cowboys vs Vikings, More

NFL Week 11 Predictions: 7 Data-Driven Picks for Eagles vs Colts, Cowboys vs Vikings, More article feature image
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Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Jonathan Taylor.


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NFL Odds & Picks

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Colts +7
1 p.m. ET
Miles Sanders Rush Attempts
1 p.m. ET
Quez Watkins Receiving Yards
1 p.m. ET
Lions +3
1 p.m. ET
Bears-Falcons Under
1 p.m. ET
Cade York Field Goals Made
1 p.m. ET
Cowboys-Vikings Either Team to Score 3 Unanswered Times
4:25 p.m. ET

Pick
Colts +7
Best Book
Time
1 p.m. ET

Nick Giffen: The Commanders showed the formula on how to beat the Eagles: Run the ball.

The Colts should be able to do just that and interim head coach Jeff Saturday emphasized the running game in his first game at the helm.

Against the Raiders, who are 24th in defensive rush DVOA, star running back Jonathan Taylor ripped off 147 yards on the ground. Now, Taylor gets an Eagles defense that’s ranked even worse at 28th.

That contrasts sharply with the Eagles’ top-ranked pass defense, making them a run funnel to exploit.

The Colts also come in 17 places lower than the Eagles in our Luck Rankings, meaning they fall in the bucket that has hit nearly 60% of the time against the spread (ATS).

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Pick
Miles Sanders Over 13.5 Rush Attempts (-125)
Best Book
Time
1 p.m. ET

Sean Koerner: Sanders failed to clear this number for only the third time this season last week, but a lot of that had to do with Washington dominating time of possession in its upset win.

I think the Eagles lean on Sanders more, especially after losing such a valuable passing piece in Dallas Goedert. The Colts rank fifth in DVOA against the run, so I’m not as interested in taking Sanders to clear his yardage prop, but I think the volume will be there.

I’m projecting him closer to 15 attempts, but would only take this prop at 13.5 and bet it up to -145.


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Pick
Quez Watkins Under 24.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Best Book
Time
1 p.m. ET

Sean Koerner: Watkins always carries a wide range of outcomes.

Despite playing in all nine games thus far, he has five games with no yards but two with at least 69. He is a deep threat who only sees a target on 6% of his routes run, and while he could see an increase in usage with Goedert out, I think the ball will get spread out fairly evenly among Philly’s pass-catchers.

Plus, he tends to struggle against zone. Last season, he had a 2.55 Y/RR vs man and 1.25 vs zone — he’s been equally as bad across all types of coverages this year — so he could struggle even more against a Colts team that uses zone at the seventh highest rate.

As is always the case when taking the under on Watkins, this could look silly if he hauls in a deep ball. Still, I like investing on his floor and have his median closer to 17.5 yards.


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Pick
Lions +3
Best Book
Time
1 p.m. ET

Billy Ward: There’s a lot to like about the Lions in this spot. They’ve played well over the past few weeks and picked up up the first road win of the Dan Campbell era last week in Chicago.

They should dominate in the trenches on both sides of the ball, which is especially important for Jared Goff.

Finally, they’re playing the NFL’s luckiest team in the Giants. That luck is set to run out soon.

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Pick
Under 49.5
Best Book
Time
1 p.m. ET

Billy Ward: On the one hand, I get it. Justin Fields has been electric lately, and the Falcons offense has started to come together a bit in recent weeks. On the other hand, we have a total approaching 50 in a Bears-Falcons game?!

These teams rank 31st and 32nd in pass rate over expectation, and 24th and 29th in overall pace of play. Even with outstanding rushing efficiency, that makes it difficult for there to be enough possessions in order for this to go over the total.

They’ve combined to score under 45 points per game this season. I’d take this down to 48.5.

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Pick
Cade York Over 1.5 FG Made
Best Book
Time
1 p.m. ET

Nick Giffen: York has averaged 1.67 field goals made per game, while Buffalo has allowed 1.67 field-goal attempts per game. This contest was moved to Ford Field, where the Browns will be playing against a Bills team that flew in later than usual on Saturday afternoon.

I have York as a coin flip to go over 1.5 field goals made, so getting plus money is nice.


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Pick
Either Team to Score 3 Unanwered Times (No; +180)
Best Book
Time
4:25 p.m. ET

Billy Ward: We have another solid spot for my favorite prop, with the spread for this game hovering in the 1.5 to 2 range most of the week. As we’ve discussed, the actual outcome on this bet correlates much more heavily to the spread than the total.

The total being up to 48 is the reason we’re getting a solid line on this prop. Games with a total between 45 and 50 — but with a spread of two or less — hit the “No” side of this prop about 40% of the time for +150 fair odds.


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