NFL Week 3 Picks: Bills vs Commanders, Eagles vs Buccaneers

NFL Week 3 Picks: Bills vs Commanders, Eagles vs Buccaneers article feature image

Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Allen.

With two weeks in the books, our betting analysts have already made their favorite NFL Week 3 picks.

Check out the bets that our analysts have already placed below.

NFL Week 3 Picks

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

GameTime (ET)Pick
1 p.m.
1 p.m.
7:15 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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Bills vs. Commanders

Sunday, Sept. 24
1 p.m. ET
Bills -6.5

By Dylan Wilkerson

Sam Howell had a great day in the Commanders' comeback win over the Broncos with 299 passing yards and two touchdown passes. The Washington defense left a bit to be desired, but Chase Young impressed with his three tackles and 1.5 sacks in his 2023 debut.

Even though the Commanders put together an amazing comeback, it was with help from some timely penalties committed by the Broncos. For instance, on a sack that would have put the Commanders at fourth-and-15 at the end of the game, Denver's Fabian Moreau committed a costly defensive holding penalty that gave Washington a new set of downs. This drive ended with the Commanders scoring a touchdown, putting them up 35-24 and winning them the game.

The Bills were coming off of an embarrassing primetime loss against an Aaron Rodgers-less Jets team, but they cleaned up their act in Week 2 against the Raiders. Josh Allen didn't commit any turnovers, and neither did the entire Buffalo offense

The Week 2 version of the Bills is the expectation we've become accustomed to with Allen at the helm. The Bills team from Week 1 was the exception.

Perhaps because Raiders vs. Bills wasn't in primetime, the "Bills are back" news may be slow to circulate. Hopefully, that means we can get this number before it hits -7.

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Bills vs. Commanders

Sunday, Sept. 24
1 p.m. ET
Over 45.5

By Ricky Henne

Fears about the Bills’ offense following their Week 1 struggles against the Jets were alleviated as Josh Allen and company throttled the Raiders. The perennial MVP candidate threw for three touchdowns, but perhaps more impressive was Buffalo's ground game. The Bills have mainly relied on Allen’s cannon arm in recent years, but Buffalo ran the ball 35 times against Las Vegas for 183 yards and two touchdowns.

Meanwhile, the Commanders have been plucky under first-year starter Sam Howell, averaging 27.5 points per game. That’s quite the improvement over the 18.9 that Washington averaged last year, which is exactly what it was hoping for with new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. The Commanders looked unstoppable at times against the Broncos, dropping 35 points in one of the toughest stadiums for a road team in the NFL.

It may not be a barn burner between these teams, but 44.5 feels awfully low. The line was actually 43.5 in the middle of the Commanders’ win over Denver, so sportsbooks are already adjusting. It’s continued to steadily creep up, so you may want to grab it ASAP, as some have already moved it to 45.5, which I’d still play.

Eagles vs. Buccaneers

Monday, Sept. 25
7:15 p.m. ET
Under 45

By Cody Goggin

Without Shane Steichen on the Philadelphia sideline, the Eagles offense has not looked quite the same. Despite playing in two tight games, Jalen Hurts has decreased from 8.0 yards per attempt and 246.7 yards per game last year to 6.5 and 181.5 through two games this season.

The Eagles ranked 31st in the NFL in dropback success rate and 22nd in dropback EPA prior to Dolphins vs. Patriots on Sunday Night Football. The Eagles are also only passing the ball 46.32% of the time compared to 50.26% last year.

These could just be small sample sizes across the first two weeks, but it appears to me that we should be at least slightly concerned with the Eagles’ current offensive scheme.

Tampa Bay is 2-0 to start the year, as well, but the Bucs have benefited from multiple turnovers by Minnesota and Chicago. There’s little doubt that the Bucs were the better team on the field in Week 2, but that’s not saying too much against the Bears.

Through two games, Tampa has gained 41.34% of its available yards. This mark is below average but still above the Eagles’ 40.31%. Against a big step-up in competition, I’m not a believer in Baker Mayfield being able to string together another strong game where the Bucs win the turnover differential.

With all of the talent the Eagles have on offense, this is hard to stomach, but I like this primetime game to go under its total. The Eagles defense has been fantastic at generating pressure, which has not been a strong suit for Mayfield in his NFL career.

On the other side, the Eagles’ new offensive philosophy appears to be focused heavily on the run, which will result in fewer plays being run and, more importantly, fewer potential points.

You can find this on the market at 45 as of Sunday night, but I would take it down to 43.5.

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