NFL Week 9 Player Props: Picks for Josh Allen, Josh Jacobs, Marcus Mariota
Photo by Joshua Bessex/Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Allen.
While sides and totals are still the standard when it comes to NFL betting, player props have exploded in popularity for the casual and seasoned bettor. New player prop markets are being offered every season and finding an edge in one of these offerings can be quite profitable.
For the 2022 NFL season, while I’m known as the anytime touchdown prop specialist with the Action Network, I’ve decided that I can’t deny my love for all player prop bets and will give out my best bets every week. This could include prop markets like receiving yards, rushing attempts, passing yards, touchdown passes, interceptions and so many more.
Each week during the NFL season and playoffs, I will give out my three favorite player prop picks on Fridays. Through eight weeks, I’ve gone 11-13 for +0.3 units. As a reference, during the 2021 season (including the playoffs), my record for these props was 43-25 for +21.7 units in profit. Had you blindly tailed me each week since last season, you’d have made profit in 22-of-30 weeks.
As always, you can get all of these picks as soon as I lock them in by downloading the Action Network app.
Here we go for Week 9!
We’ve been doing well this season with quarterback rushing yard props. We hit this prop in Week 4, Week 5 and Week 8 so I’m shocked DraftKings decided to hang this low of a number again. Once again, we’re taking Josh Allen to log at least 42 rushing yards against the Jets.
The MVP front-runner has been putting the Bills on his back and is averaging 5.8 yards per carry (third amongst all QBs) on 53 attempts in 2022. He’s racked up 306 yards and has cashed the OVER on his rushing yard prop easily in 5-of-7 games.
Dating back to last season (including playoffs), Allen has rushed for at least 42 yards in 10 of his last 12 games. It may not be easy for Allen to pull this off, but he’s historically carved up the Jets defense on the ground.
In his career, he’s faced the Jets eight times and has gone over this number in four of them. In fairness, one under came in Week 17 in 2019 when he only played the first quarter.
Allen is just too much of a running threat to overlook for rushing props when it’s below 50 yards.
With reception props, running backs can offer tremendous value — especially at plus money odds — if they’re routinely involved in the passing game. For Week 9, Josh Jacobs checks a lot of boxes, which is why I like him to get four catches against Jacksonville.
Jacobs, along with the entire Raiders offense, was shockingly skunked in Week 8 vs. New Orleans. It was the first time the Raiders had been shut out in over six seasons. I expect a huge bounceback this week, particularly from Jacobs, who has low key become a dual-threat back.
Jacobs is third on the Raiders in targets (26) and catches (22) while playing over 70% of snaps; he’s left very little opportunity for the likes of Brandon Bolden, Ameer Abdullah or Zamir White. Jacobs has more catches than those three combined this season. He also had a stretch from Week 3 to Week 5 in which he had five catches in each game.
The final reason why I love this prop is the opponent. The Jaguars defense can be feisty, but one phase of the game they’ve struggled is giving up receptions to running backs.
Through eight weeks, they’ve given up 58 catches to the position, which ranks 31st in the NFL. Opposing RBs have four or more catches in 5-of-8 games while the other three saw a RB finish with three. I’ll take my chances at these odds.
Six QBs have plus odds to throw an interception in Week 9, including Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow and Tom Brady.
While those three have been hit or miss this season with turnovers, I’m going to fade Marcus Mariota.
Mariota wouldn’t crack anyone’s top five quarterbacks this season — and although he’s led the Falcons to a respectable 4-4 record, he does have moments of bad judgement. Mariota has six interceptions this season and is coming off a two-pick game at home against Carolina.
Now, the Falcons are facing a Chargers defense that can put pressure on the quarterback and is opportunistic enough in coverage to take advantage of bad throws.
The Chargers are tied for ninth in interceptions this season, with 17 sacks. Not eye-popping numbers, but enough to check some boxes. If the Chargers can contain the run and make Mariota throw, an interception is inevitable.
Mariota has thrown 20-plus times in five games this season and has a pick in three of them.