Packers vs Rams Odds, Picks: 3 Monday Night Football Best Bets
- Packers vs. Rams closes Week 15 on Monday Night Football.
- Baker Mayfield gets his first start for Los Angeles opposite Aaron Rodgers.
- Get our three favorite Packers vs. Rams picks below.
Packers vs Rams Odds
|Packers Odds||-7.5 (-115)|
|Rams Odds||+7.5 (-105)|
|Moneyline||-370 / +295|
|Odds via FanDuel.|
Packers vs Rams Picks
Brandon Anderson: On the one hand, the Packers have only two wins by more than three and both of those were against the Bears. On the other hand, the Rams are definitively worse than the Bears. The Baker Mayfield comeback was fun, but let’s not forget the Rams were lifeless for most of that game and have been terrible most of the season.
These teams were supposed to be Super Bowl favorites and have both disappointed, but let’s not pretend the disappointment is the same. The metrics still say the Packers are a solid side, while the Rams are just bad.
Green Bay’s biggest flaw is its run defense, but Los Angeles can’t run the ball anyway. The Packers are good against the pass, and Aaron Rodgers should have all day to pick apart a faltering Rams defense.
Rodgers is 9-3-1 ATS (75%) coming out of the bye, and he’s 23-11-1 ATS (68%) at home in primetime. These aren’t the usual Packers, but they’re not the usual Rams either.
Green Bay has started slow, so you might want to wait for a better line during the game, but if you’ve got this below -7, I’d bite.
Nick Giffen: Baker Mayfield’s completion percentage (58.5) is eight percent below expected, per Next Gen Stats. While he’s last in the league among qualified quarterbacks, he should regress upward given his career mark is 61.2 percent.
In his Rams debut, he completed 62.9 percent of his passes. Green Bay is a much tougher defense to face than Las Vegas – Football Outsiders ranks them eighth in pass defense DVOA – but opponents have still completed at a 66.4 percent clip, so it’s been in smaller chunks. That’s perfect for a trailing game script, which is expected for the Rams given they are seven-point underdogs.
My in-game model that I use on Bet What Happens Live! even leans over on his passing attempt total of 31.5 – it projects just over 35!
Even at 31.5 pass attempts, Mayfield would need a completion percentage of just 55.6 percent to equal 17.5. At 35 pass attempts, he would need to complete just 50 percent.
The rookie is as hot as any player in the NFL right now, finding the end zone in four straight games. As if that wasn’t impressive enough, he also has eight total touchdowns over that span (seven receiving, one rushing). After not scoring a single touchdown until Week 10, he’s on such a hot streak that he now ranks fifth in receiving touchdowns among all wideouts.
It should come as no surprise then that Watson’s emerged as Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target. He has a 23.5% target share over the past month with quarterbacks looking his way 6.75 times per game. That may not be an overwhelming amount, but it’s enough to make him the most targeted player in three of Green Bay’s last four games.
This hot streak won’t last forever, but it’d be foolish not to ride it while it does.