Raiders vs 49ers Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 17
Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images Pictured: Brock Purdy looks to hand the ball off.
- The 49ers are laying 9.5 points in Week 17 against the Raiders.
- Jarrett Stidham faces the NFL's best defense in his first start for Las Vegas.
- Cody Goggin breaks the game down and makes his Raiders vs 49ers pick.
Raiders vs 49ers Odds
On Wednesday, it was announced that Derek Carr will be inactive for the rest of the season and that Jarrett Stidham will get the start under center against San Francisco. This season — which was supposed to be promising after the acquisitions of Davante Adams and Chandler Jones, as well as the hiring of Josh McDaniels — has been full of disappointments for the Raiders.
Things couldn’t have gone much worse for the Raiders, who are staring down the barrel of a large-scale rebuild and may be doing so with a head coach they're stuck with for the time being.
Meanwhile, San Francisco is gearing up for the playoffs. The 49ers have clinched the NFC West and all that is left to be determined is the seeding. According to Football Outsiders, the 49ers have just a 3.2% chance of getting the top seed. It's most likely they are the NFC’s No. 2 (66.4%). Brock Purdy has performed well since taking over as San Francisco's quarterback and will look to keep things rolling for the rest of the year.
So, where does that leave us for a Raiders vs 49ers pick?
The 49ers defense has been feasting all season, but especially in recent weeks. San Francisco leads the league in EPA per play allowed since Purdy took over in Week 13, but is also first across the entire league this season, allowing -0.113 EPA per play. If Stidham isn’t able to overcome this defense, the Raiders are going to have major issues Sunday.
Raiders vs 49ers Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Raiders and 49ers match up statistically:
Raiders vs 49ers DVOA Breakdown
San Francisco’s defense dominates in the trenches. The 49ers rank third in Pro Football Focus' run defense grade, second in tackling grade and sixth in pass rushing grade. They are seventh in ESPN’s pass rush win rate and fourth in run stop win rate. By all measures, this is a great defensive front.
Bet San Francisco vs. Las Vegas at FanDuel
The mediocre Raiders’ line will face one of the largest disadvantages of any team this week. According to PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart, Las Vegas will be at a -42% disadvantage in the running game and -22% in the passing game. They are the only team in the league to rank in the bottom five in each category this weekend.
Carr has actually helped his line’s case this season. Despite his line allowing the fifth-highest pressure rate in the league (PFF), Carr is only responsible for 8.8% of those pressures himself. This ranks fourth-best in the league out of 24 quarterbacks who have taken 50%+ of their teams’ dropbacks. With an inexperienced Stidham at quarterback, I would expect this to result in even more pressures as Stidham will likely be holding onto the ball much longer than Carr.
With Las Vegas' passing game greatly neutralized, the Raiders will have to lean on Josh Jacobs more. Jacobs has been the main bright spot for this Raiders’ offense as he leads the league with 1,539 rushing yards. Still, I don't believe he will be able to dominate against a tough 49ers front seven.
San Francisco’s offense runs at the slowest pace in the league, 31.0 seconds per play. This has increased to 32.3 seconds per play in Purdy’s three starts. Las Vegas ranks 24th in the league in pace, so this game will likely end up being a slow grind.
There are a lot of ways I'd like to play this game and all of them point toward San Francisco. While I think the Niners can get an easy win, the spread has already reacted to the Stidham news. Instead, I prefer to take the under at 42.5 points.
The pace of this game should be slow and the Raiders will have trouble doing anything against this stacked 49ers defense. I would expect Kyle Shanahan to come out with a more conservative game plan for a game in which he expects his team to be in a positive game script for most of the contest.
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