Super Bowl Player Prop Odds, Picks | Expert Explains the Positive Correlation Mahomes Bet to Make
Icon Sportswire/Getty. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)
The Super Bowl player prop market is getting a ton of action ahead of the big game, as the prop market now accounts for a significant portion of the handle on the game.
BetMGM released their most-wagered on player props — as well as those that are accounting for the most handle — and there’s a wide range of wagers that bettors are making.
The bet that’s grabbing the most attention is Jalen Hurts’ over of 10.5 rushing attempts. However, the wager is not in the top-five of handle in the player prop market.
That honor would go to the Miles Sanders rushing yards over at 59.5. Sanders’ prop is the second-most bet wager and at the top of the handle distribution.
As you would expect, Patrick Mahomes props also account for a heavy portion of the tickets and handle. His interceptions over — as well as his yardage over — are the most popular bets at BetMGM.
We called upon NFL expert Brandon Anderson to provide his thoughts on the player prop bets that are dominating the betting market. Read on for his betting analysis.
Super Bowl Prop Expert Analysis
If you like the Eagles to win the game, Mahomes to throw an interception at plus-money is a great correlated bet.
Mahomes averages exactly one interception per regular season loss in his career, but barely over a half in a win. In the playoffs, it’s even more stark, with four INTs in three losses versus only three picks in 10 wins.
He also threw a pair of interceptions in both of his prior Super Bowls, trailing for much of both against great defenses with fearsome pressure like Philly. If your book allows you to parlay a Mahomes INT with an Eagles win, that’s even better.
In terms of his passing yards prop, it’s relatively game-script proof, as long as Mahomes is healthy. Either the Chiefs are ahead because Mahomes threw enough to get them there, or they’re behind and he’s throwing to play catch up.
Mahomes averaged 309 yards per game this season, and he averages 314 yards per game in healthy playoff games for his career. If you like this prop, I might even go a step further and play an alternate line, like 325 yards.
He’s hit at least that number in four of his last six healthy playoff games.
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