Texans vs. Chiefs Betting Odds & Picks: Bank on a K.C. Bounce Back?

Texans vs. Chiefs Betting Odds & Picks: Bank on a K.C. Bounce Back? article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes

  • Our experts cover every angle of Sunday's Kansas City Chiefs (-4) vs. Houston Texans matchup.
  • Find their analysis of the betting odds below, complete with a staff pick and more.

Texans at Chiefs Betting Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Chiefs -4
  • Over/Under: 55.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Odds as of Sunday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

The Chiefs suffered their first loss of the season in primetime, falling (at home!) to the Colts last Sunday night. Now Kansas City hosts Houston in what should be a high-flying offensive matchup at Arrowhead Stadium.

Texans-Chiefs features the highest total of Week 6, and most of the public bets and money are flowing in on the over. But is that where the value lies?

Our staff breaks this matchup down from every angle, featuring a comparison to Sean Koerner’s projected total as well as a staff pick on the over/under.

Texans-Chiefs Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Texans

The Texans might be one of the healthiest teams in the league, and they could get Kenny Stills (hamstring) back this week as he’s now gotten in two limited practices thus far. Otherwise, there aren’t any key injuries of note.

Tyreek Hill (collarbone) has been practicing in a limited fashion, but it’s unclear whether the Chiefs will decide to roll him out this week or not. Sammy Watkins (hamstring) is trending towards sitting this one after he missed back-to-back practices and most of last week’s game. Byron Pringle would be in line for an increased workload if both receivers are ruled out. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Texans Rush Offense vs. Chiefs Rush Defense

I am by no means enamored with the backfield duo of Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson Jr., but the Texans have been efficient on the ground with their 0.55 rushing success rate and 5.1 yards per carry.

It helps that they have one of the league’s better rushing quarterbacks in Deshaun Watson, who has averaged 6.0 yards per carry for his career.

And Hyde is actually having a better season than most people realize.

Carlos Hyde
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Carlos Hyde

Hyde’s 4.2 yards per carry is acceptable, and his 0.59 rushing success rate is exemplary: It’s actually the highest rate in the league for any back averaging at least eight carries per game. Hyde doesn’t get a lot of yards, but for a high percentage of his carries, he gets enough yards for the offense to sustain drives.

As for Johnson, he’s seeing just 6.4 carries per game, and that’s not a large number, but that’s more than the 4.7 he average in his first four years with the Browns. And he’s having a highly efficient season, averaging 6.4 yards per carry. He’s not as consistent as Hyde, as evidenced by his 0.47 rushing success rate. But Johnson’s big-play ability adds an extra element to the rushing offense that must be accounted for.

The matchup for the Texans on the ground could not be better. The Chiefs are vulnerable on the ground with their league-low 46.5 Pro Football Focus run-defense grade. Last week, the Colts gave Kansas City its first loss of the season — at Arrowhead Stadium no less — and they relied heavily on the running game to extend drives and keep the Chiefs offense on the sideline.

The Texans could go with a similar strategy this weekend, especially given the success that lead backs in particular have had against the Chiefs.

  • Leonard Fournette (Week 1): 13-66-0 rushing, 4-28-0 receiving on 6 targets
  • Josh Jacobs (Week 2): 12-99-0 rushing, 0 targets
  • Mark Ingram (Week 3): 16-103-3 rushing, 4-32-0 receiving on 4 targets
  • Kerryon Johnson (Week 4): 26-125-0 rushing, 2-32-0 receiving on 3 targets
  • Marlon Mack (Week 5): 29-132-0 rushing, 3-16-0 receiving on 3 targets

Watson and Johnson will pitch in, but this matchup really comes down to Hyde and his ability to keep drives going with steady yardage.

Coming off his first 20-carry game of the year and facing the team that signed him in March and traded him in August, Hyde has the potential for a grinding volume-fueled #RevengeGame performance. Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Chiefs -6
  • Projected Total: 55.5

Patrick Mahomes suffered an ankle injury during the Chiefs’ loss to the Colts. It clearly limited him, so we’ll need to monitor it before betting this game.

Right now I have the line set as if he’s 100%. Any indications that the ankle could be a concern would make me lay off the -4 line. While he doesn’t rely on his legs to scramble much, he does use his mobility to escape pressure, keep the play alive and find a receiver for a huge play. Any limitations to his mobility could affect how much value he brings to this offense. Sean Koerner

Expert Picks

Freedman: Under 55.5

Whenever the Chiefs are at home, I almost always automatically bet the under.

That might seem counterintuitive: If the team with one of the best offenses in the league is at home, shouldn’t we expect that team to score more points than usual? And wouldn’t that drive the game to the over?

With the Chiefs, that has historically not been the case.

chiefs-raiders-betting-odds-picks-cheat sheet-nfl-week 2-2019
Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Andy Reid

Since head coach Andy Reid joined the franchise in 2013, no home team has made under bettors more money than the Chiefs have with their 34-20-1 under record (including playoffs), good for an A-graded 26.1% return on investment (per Bet Labs).

In the Reid era, the Chiefs have actually scored 3.3 fewer points at home than on the road. That’s easily the most negative home/away offensive scoring differential in the league.

In fact, Chiefs’ games have an NFL-worst home/away total differential of -8.9 points. In Kansas City, NFL games rank No. 26 with a mediocre 42.9 points. On the road, Chiefs games blow out with a league-high 51.8 points.

Arrowhead is a tough place to score, and not just for the visiting team.

I wouldn’t bet this any lower than 55, because a 28-27 game gives us a push and hoping for anything less than that feels greedy, but until we see Mahomes and the Chiefs consistently hit the over at home, I’ll be betting the home under when I think there’s even a slight edge.

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