Texans vs Eagles: 3 Picks for Thursday Night Football

Texans vs Eagles: 3 Picks for Thursday Night Football article feature image

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Texans vs Eagles Odds

Thursday, Nov. 3
8:15 p.m. ET
Amazon Prime Video
Eagles Odds-13.5
Texans Odds+13.5
Moneyline-800 / +560
Odds via FanDuel.

Eagles vs Texans Picks

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Davis Mills Passing Yards
1H Total
Miles Sanders Rushing Yards

Davis Mills Under 218.5 Passing Yards
Best Book
8:15 p.m. ET

Chris Raybon: Davis Mills has failed to clear 152 passing yards in two of his past three games and now faces an Eagles defense allowing 206.1 passing yards per game to opposing QBs, fifth-fewest.

The Eagles have held six of the seven QBs they’ve faced under their passing-yard prop:

  • Week 1: Jared Goff: 215 passing yards, under 249.5
  • Week 2: Kirk Cousins: 221 passing yards: under 256.5
  • Week 3: Carson Wentz: 211 passing yards, under 253.5
  • Week 4: Trevor Lawrence: 174 passing yards, under 247.5
  • Week 5: Kyler Murray: 250 passing yards, over 246.5
  • Week 6: Cooper Rush: 181 passing yards, under 213.5
  • Week 8: Kenny Pickett: 191 passing yards, under 220.5

On average, opposing passers are falling short of their yardage prop by 34.9 yards against the Eagles. The Eagles defense ranks second in DVOA against the pass, per Football Outsiders. They also rank second in Extra Points Added per dropback (-0.163), and third in passing success rate allowed (41.8%), per RBsDM.com.

Bet Thursday Night Football at FanDuel
Eagles -14 | Texans +14

Mills will be without the services of Nico Collins (groin), whose 304 receiving yards represent 20.2% of Mills’ total passing yardage this season. On top of that, Brandin Cooks suspiciously missed practice Tuesday and Wednesday after a cryptic tweet expressing frustration with not being traded. It’s possible that Cooks is trying to negotiate his release from the team and will not play Thursday. Cooks leads the Texans with 354 receiving yards and a 23.6% share of MIlls’ total passing yardage this season.

I’m projecting Mills for a median of 200 passing yards on Thursday night. If Cooks were to miss, that number would fall south of 200.

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1H Total Over 23.5
Best Book
8:15 p.m. ET

Billy Ward: The Eagles have largely dominated throughout their undefeated start to the 2022 season. Many of their games have followed a similar script, with the Eagles playing extremely aggressively to start the game, building up to a big lead, then laying off in the second half.

There's a lot of ways we can quantify this. They rank second fastest in first half pace of play in the NFL, and second slowest in second half pace. They rank first (with a 4.4 point margin) in 1st half scoring, and 27th in second half scoring.

FanDuel Quickslip: 1H Over 23.5

Despite that, sportsbooks have lined the first half total of their matchup with the Texans the same way they would any other game. The first half total of 23 is roughly half of the full game mark of 45.5.

With the Texans not expected to put up much resistance as 14-point underdogs, that first half line is fairly obviously wrong. Philadelphia is averaging 21 first half points, and has scored more than 23.5 themselves in three of seven games.

Six of those seven games have cleared this first half total, with the lone exception producing 23 points. If Houston's offense can get anything going — and it's a reasonable matchup for their rushing attack — this one should go over easily.

I'd take this up to 24 at similar juice.

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Miles Sanders Over 78.5 Rushing Yards
Best Book
8:15 p.m. ET

Sam Farley: Some bets you look for angle, studying snap counts or passing depth stats, then other times you see a bet so obvious, so simple that it must simply be bet. This is the latter.

On Thursday Night Football, you will be backing Miles Sanders to go over his rushing yards total of 79.5. Hell, you'd even take the over if this was 84.5.

Backing the rushing over and the Texans defense go together like cheese and a nice red wine, the perfect combination. The Texans have given up 1,302 rushing yards so far this season, an average of 186 per game, 30 more yards than their nearest competition.

FanDuel Odds Boost: Both Eagles & Phillies to Win

Now, Houston welcomes the Eagles brilliant rushing attack to NRG Stadium. There's always a concern that perhaps Jalen Hurts might absorb a lot of those rushing yards, but there is plenty to go around and Sanders has performed well this season.

Sanders has averaged 80.4 rushing yards per game and even last week on his lowest number of carries this season (nine), he still managed 78 yards on the ground.

Don't overthink this, Sanders should smash this total here if he stays healthy.

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