Our 4 Favorite Titans vs. Jaguars Bets for Thursday Night Football

Our 4 Favorite Titans vs. Jaguars Bets for Thursday Night Football article feature image
Credit:

Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Myles Jack, Derrick Henry

Titans at Jaguars Betting Odds

  • Odds: Titans -1.5
  • Total: 38
  • Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: NFL Network

Odds above as of noon ET on Thursday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).

The Jaguars host Tennessee in an AFC South showdown on Thursday Night Football with an 0-2 start and internal turmoil hanging over Jacksonville.

But should they really be underdogs?

Our staff highlights how they’re betting this game, featuring their four favorite picks.


Mike Randle: Titans -1.5

It’s always tricky to pick against an 0-2 team at home, especially against a division opponent. But the Titans matchup perfectly with the Jaguars and are catching Jacksonville at the right time.

Tennessee has been stout against the run, holding Colts running back Marlon Mack to just 51 yards on 20 carries after he led all running backs with 174 rushing yards last week. The Titans also held Browns running back Nick Chubb to limited yardage until garbage time in Week 1.

The Titans have also been efficient against the pass, totaling eight sacks in their first two games.

While Gardner Minshew has become a folk hero, the first-year former Washington State signal-caller will be expected to manage the game against the aggressive Tennessee defense. He was an efficient 23-of-33 for 213 yards and one touchdown in the Jaguars 13-12 loss at Houston, but he’s struggled to get the big playmakers involved, with WR1 Dede Westbrook totaling just 33 yards on six receptions through two games.

Winless home underdogs are always live in Week 3, but go with the Titans to win outright against a Jaguars team that could self-destruct after a third consecutive loss to start the season.

I would feel comfortable taking this line up to -2.5.

Sean Zerillo: Jacksonville +110 Moneyline

If you’re going to back the Jaguars in this matchup, I would look to avoid the point spread — unless the number touches +3, which seems very unlikely — and play the moneyline instead.

The Jaguars fit the following Pro System for early-season upsets, which targets small underdogs in divisional games:

Minshew has been exceptionally accurate through his first two NFL games, with an 84.4% on-target throw rate that ranks second behind Dak Prescott (93.5%) this season.

If you sort NFL quarterbacks by the percentage of yards that are gained as Air Yards, Minshew ranks 18th (54.5%), indicating that he sticks to short and intermediate throws to move the chains. By the same criteria, Marcus Mariota ranks 25th in on-target throw rate (73.1%) and 34th in Air Yard percentage (38.8%) through two games and continues to disappoint as a passer.

Dating back to the 2003 season, NFL home teams are 113-72 (61.1%) on Thursdays, winning by an average margin of 3.08 points.

I’ll back the rookie in his first home start.

Stuckey: Jacksonville +7.5 or Better on a 6-Point Teaser

Let me break the tie between Randle and Zerillo: Jacksonville is the perfect teaser piece.

The Jags are a 1.5-point underdog at home on Thursday night that you can tease through four key numbers — including king key numbers 3 and 7 — in a game in which points should come at a premium. I personally expect an inspired effort from a Jags defense that got embarrassed by Derrick Henry on Thursday night in their last meeting.

In terms of the second team to add to your 6-point teaser, I like getting the Packers below a field goal favorite over the Broncos. I can’t see Aaron Rodgers and Co. losing that game at home with the way their defense has been playing to start the year.

Matt LaMarca: Titans WR Adam Humphries Under 25.5 Receiving Yards (-130)

Humphries was an offseason addition for the Titans, but he’s yet to establish himself in their wide receiver corps.

Corey Davis stands out as the clear cut No. 1 option, leading the position in snaps and targets in each of the first two weeks. After Davis, it’s a hodgepodge. Humphries, Tajae Sharpe and A.J. Brown have each played between 36.1% and 49.2% of snaps this season, and Humphries has received just four total targets.

The Titans remain one of the most run-heavy teams in the league — they rank just 24th in pass rate this season — and they also rank 20th in neutral pace. That just doesn’t leave a ton of volume for their secondary pass catchers to provide value.

Humphries has caught three balls for four yards this season, so this prop is offering plenty of value. I like the under up to -150.

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