Packers vs Titans Odds, Picks: Best Bets for Thursday Night Football
Pictured: Aaron Rodgers (left) and Derrick Henry.
- The Packers are 3-point favorites tonight at most sportsbooks.
- Tennessee is in first place in the AFC South, while Green Bay is fighting for a playoff spot.
- Check out our staff's favorite picks for the game below.
Packers vs Titans Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Packers vs Titans Picks
Anthony Dabbundo: If you look at our Action Network Luck Rankings, you’ll see why this is a good buy-low and sell-high spot at Lambeau Field on Thursday night. This matchup is the biggest luck difference of the week, with the 28th-ranked Packers facing the second-ranked Titans.
The Packers have been among the top-five unluckiest teams in the NFL this season, while the Titans rank in the top five in good fortune. It might seem weird to see a 4-6 team favored against a 6-3 opponent, but DVOA has these two teams at 13th and 14th in overall ratings. Green Bay has the much better offense — ninth in DVOA compared to 21st for the Titans — and that tends to be more predictive in the long run of an entire NFL season.
Titans +3 | Packers -3
Green Bay is an above-average offense in EPA/play and success rate this season. The Packers offense has been hurt is by turnovers and perception, leading to a lot of close losses.
Tennessee is the exact opposite. The Titans offense ranks outside the top 20 in both EPA and success rate, and even the run offense is in the bottom third of the league entering this game, even with Derrick Henry.
Once again, all of Tennessee’s close victories are driving the perception that they’re a much better team than they really are. Green Bay is the slightly better team on a neutral field and once you factor in the home field and the situational spot, I like the Packers at -3 or better.
I wouldn’t lay more than the field goal.
Nick Bretwisch: The Green Bay Packers finally ended a five-game skid on Sunday with a thrilling overtime win over the Cowboys. Aaron Rodgers and this passing attack finally looked efficient (despite only 20 pass attempts) enough that I’ll ride the small sample size of his competency for this game.
The Titans are a pass-funnel defense, and my Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) Model predicts opposing teams to throw the football 12% more times than they normally would against a randomly chosen NFL opponent. So, I’m going to buy-low on the Packers’ No. 3 target in Robert Tonyan to go over 27.5 receiving yards.
This Titans’ secondary has allowed a perfect catch rate (on “catchable” targets) to opposing tight-ends. Tennessee literally does not even have a pass deflection on targets to in-line tight ends and only has five deflections against pass catchers who run their route out of the slot (which Tonyan does around 40% of the time), well below league average.
In addition, the Titans secondary allows more than 14 yards per reception to opposing in-line tight ends.
Tonyan is coming off the lowest receiving output he’s had all season, but I’ll chalk that up to the Packers’ run-first game plan against the Cowboys.
The AETY Model projects Tonyan for 37.12 receiving yards, which equates to a 30% edge on the over for Tonyan’s receiving yards.
Burks is a big +500 to score his first touchdown of the season against the Packers, which looks like a good price.
In his first game back against Denver, he played 56% of total snaps and 76% of the passing plays. Before he got injured, he was on the field for 96% of passing plays, and I’d expect to see him get back to that kind of usage.
The Titans are 31st in pass offense, and the likes of Robert Woods and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine didn’t really step up while Burks was out, although some of that has to do with Malik Willis starting two games.
Before the injury, Burks was turning a corner and looked like he was about to break out. These odds +475 odds imply a 17.4% chance that Burks finds the end zone. With what we saw before his injury, I think there’s a better chance of that happening. This is a value play.
Nick Giffen: The Titans have allowed 5.6 kicking points per game this season, with two missed field goals and one missed extra point against them. Even if those were converted, the average would only go up to 6.3.
It’s going to be frigid tonight at Lambeau Field, which means longer field-goal attempts will be impacted. We’re looking at 25 degrees with a 12-mph crosswind at the Frozen Tundra tonight.
Cold means the air is more dense, which means there are more molecules to push through. Add in the wind with the cold, and it’s going to be very difficult to make kicks from long distance tonight.
The Packers have kept a second kicker active over the past couple week as Crosby battles a sore back, which isn’t encouraging.
I have Crosby favored to go under 6.5 points at 53% of the time, so getting plus money on this is nice.