Raybon’s Week 4 Fantasy Football Trade Targets & Sell Highs
Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Leonard Fournette.
- We're starting to get a better idea of which defenses to target and avoid.
- Chris Raybon lists five players you should either be trading for or offloading in your league based on the upcoming schedule.
Whether you’re 3-0 in your league and looking to keep it going, 0-3 and searching in vain for the ‘restart’ button, or somewhere in between, the good news is, you’re still in the game!
Here are three buy lows and two sell-high targets that should put you in the best position possible ahead of Week 4.
RB Leonard Fournette, Jaguars
Fun fact: Were it not for Fournette’s 69-yard rumble against the Titans in the fourth quarter of last week’s 20-7 win on Thursday Night Football, Fournette would have finished with 14 carries for minus-three yards.
But check the ranks of his next four opponents in Football Outsiders’ defensive rushing DVOA:
- Week 4 at Denver: 20th
- Week 5 at Carolina: 27th
- Week 6 vs. New Orleans: 29th
- Week 7 at Cincinnati: 28th
And check his snap counts and share of backfield touches in the first three weeks:
- Week 1: 86% snaps, 17-of-18 (94%) backfield touches
- Week 2: 97% snaps, 19-of-19 (100%) backfield touches
- Week 3: 100% snaps, 21-of-21 (100%) backfield touches
If someone is selling the fatter, slower version of Christian McCaffrey, I’m buying.
WR Robert Woods, Rams
I recommended Brandin Cooks as a buy-low ahead of Week 3, and he came through with 8-112-0 receiving and 1-6-0 rushing on Monday Night against Cleveland.
Now it’s time to buy low on his fellow teammate.
With Cooks and Cooper Kupp (11-102-2) dominating in Week 3, it left Woods to pick the scraps with a rough 3-40-0 receiving line, his second straight dud after going 2-33-0 in Week 2.
The Rams don’t have a bye until Week 9, and four of their next five opponents rank outside the top 20 in Pro Football Focus’ team coverage grades.
- Week 4 vs. Tampa Bay: T-23rd
- Week 5 at Seattle: T-23rd
- Week 6 vs. San Francisco: Second
- Week 7 at Atlanta: 21st
- Week 8 vs. Cincinnati: 30th
The one exception is the 49ers, but Woods’ 42.9% slot rate (per PFF) means he’ll spent a considerable amount of time avoiding the straw that stirs that drink in Richard Sherman.
Even with the back-to-back duds, Woods is averaging 5.3-75-0.27 on 8.0 targets with 13.5 rushing yards per game in 11 games with both Cooks and Kupp in the lineup.
TE Jared Cook, Saints
With receiving lines of 2-37-0, 2-25-0, and 1-7-0 to start the season, Jared has done anything but Cook. That said, he faced defenses that rank in the top 10 in yard per target allowed to tight ends in the Texans (6.0; seventh), Rams (3.7; first), and Seahawks (6.2; ninth).
Even with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm, the stove is likely to reignite for Cook against the Saints’ next five opponents, all of whom happen to rank 23rd or lower in yards per game allowed to tight ends:
- Week 4 vs. Dallas: 64.0 (23rd)
- Week 5 vs. Tampa Bay: 93.3 (31st)
- Week 6 at Jacksonville: 71.0 (25th)
- Week 7 at Chicago: 73.3 (27th)
- Week 8 vs. Arizona: 116.0 (32nd)
RB Nick Chubb, Browns
I love Chubb and think he will be an RB1, but shrewd owners will want to consider selling him for a king’s ransom right about now. Chubb’s value is sky-high, but here’s how his next few weeks are looking:
- Week 4 at Baltimore: 12th in defensive rush DVOA
- Week 5 at San Francisco: fifth in defensive rush DVOA
- Week 6 vs. Seattle: sixth in defensive rush DVOA
- Week 7: Bye
- Week 8 at New England: first in defensive rush DVOA
- Week 9 at Denver: 20th in defensive rush DVOA but notoriously tough place to play
- Week 10 vs. Buffalo: Kareem Hunt returns from suspension
For those counting at home, that’s four road games, four top-12 run defenses, and a bye over the next six weeks — followed by the return of a player who could make a significant dent in Chubb’s workload.
WR Tyrell Williams, Raiders
Thanks to a touchdown that saved his otherwise dismal 3-29 receiving line, Williams makes this column for the second straight week.
This week he faces a Matt Eberflus Colts defense that likes to keep things in front of them via zone coverage and is allowing the seventh-fewest targets to opposing wideouts (49). That matchup is followed by a tough matchup with the Bears, a bye, and then a tilt with the Packers, who rank third in PFF’s team coverage grades.