NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Blackhawks vs. Jets (November 5)
Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Kane.
Blackhawks vs. Jets Odds
|Time||8 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.|
Chicago will head in to Winnipeg looking to claim just their second win in the team’s 12th contest of a very disappointing young season.
Winnipeg will look to continue their strong play over a 5-0-2 stretch, with their deep offensive unit again set to go at full strength after welcoming Mark Scheifele back to the lineup against Dallas.
The Blackhawks have been trending up the last five times out, dating back to a respectable 3-2 overtime defeat last Wednesday against a desperate Toronto squad. The Blackhawks have been stabilized by the return’s of Patrick Kane and Jonathon Toews from the COVID protocol list.
Even if a 1-3-1 record over that time doesn’t appear any better, the games have been considerably closer, specifically considering two of the contests have come against the Hurricanes who have simply dominated all competition in the early going.
I don’t think a lot of well-informed individuals felt the additions of Seth Jones and Marc-Andre Fleury could actually sort out what has been a treacherous goals against average in recent years under coach Jeremy Colliton, but it has been surprising how poorly the team has produced offensively in the early going was they rank 28th in goals for per game at 2.27.
Missing Patrick Kane due to COVID protocol certainly didn’t help, and the superstar winger has produced six points over the last two contests since returning.
This is a group which I still expect to produce offensively, and I feel that come the end of the season they will be closer to middle of the pack goals-for per game numbers, and I will be looking for them to continue trending up in that regard tomorrow night.
It is unclear whether Chicago will start Marc-Andre Fleury or Kevin Lankinen tomorrow night, but both have posted significantly below average numbers in the early going, with Fleury owning an .886 save % and Lankinen sitting with an .829% mark.
The Jets did a great job of treading water while short superstars Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler, in large due to Pierre Luc-Dubois’ reemergence to form and due to continued dominance from Kyle Connor.
Dubois had shown to be an elite center at times in Columbus but was unable to find his form last season after he came in unprepared having been unable to train all summer, and he was ultimately dealt to Winnipeg mid-season. He vowed that this year he would find his form, and in the early going he has certainly proven his word to be true in scoring.
Altogether Winnipeg have clicked for 3.44 goals per game so far, and with Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler both missing most of the early going that is a highly impressive mark.
The Jets have however continually shown poorly analytics wise under Coach Paul Maurice, and that trend has continued so far this season as the team hold just a 47.27 xGF% and allowed the league’s seventh worst xGA/60 at 2.66, and so far this year the team has allowed 3.22 goals against per game this season.
This could pose a problem again tomorrow night, especially with elite goaltender Connor Hellebuyck likely to miss the contest due to illness after missing practice again Thursday.
Eric Comrie will likely start and has been solid in the early going of this season stopping .915 % of shots on goal with 1.3 Goals Saved Above Expected. However I feel he is certainly still unlikely to finish near the level of Hellebuyck over a larger sample size this season, and regression at least somewhat closer to his career .881 save % is likely.
Jets vs. Blackhawks Pick
Similar to Chicago’s game vs Carolina last night, and Washington’s contest vs the Capitals tonight, DraftKings has opened this total at a figure of 5.5 rather than 6, and I am again confident that the number will move to 6 at around -110 closer to game-time and would recommend getting on this one early if interested.
Over Chicago’s last 67 contests game totals have averaged 6.12 goals per game, while Winnipeg’s last 65 contests have average 5.87 goals per game.
Winnipeg’s average also normally involves one of the league’s elite goalies in Connor Hellebuyck who will likely be out tomorrow, and that certainly adds a little more value to the current price as well.
Therefore I see the most value with the over at that current price of -120 at 5.5 by a good margin, as that price is simply too low.
As well I don’t love Winnipeg as a side here as a heavy favorite against a Chicago team who likely aren’t as horrible as we’ve seen so far, and Connor Hellebuyck’s likely absence makes backing the Jets at the current figure of -165 seem scary.
At worst I would say if you are keen to back Winnipeg here wait on word regarding Hellebuyck as I still don’t believe confirmation that he will play will make the line much past the -165 mark posted currently.
But if you can get the over at 5.5 -120 as posted on DraftKings that is far and away the best value on the board for me, and again would recommend doing so today. If your going to play the under, wait until the total inevitably rises to 6.
Pick: Over 5.5 -120 At DraftKings, (Play to -150)
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