Canucks vs. Kraken Odds & Picks: Will Seattle Win NHL Home Opener? (October 23)
Roy K. Miller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Conor Garland.
- The Seattle Kraken's first regular-season home game is a pick'em against the Vancouver Canucks.
- Vancouver has thrived this season thanks to a strong power play, while the Kraken need improved play between the pipes.
- Grant White breaks down the betting value and makes his pick for the game below.
Canucks vs. Kraken Odds
|Over/Under||5.5 (-120 / +100)|
|Time||10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.|
After spending the first five games of their existence on the road, the Seattle Kraken get to play their first game on home ice on Saturday night against the Vancouver Canucks.
That home-ice feeling is not something the Canucks can relate with, as they will be playing their sixth straight game on the road, having yet to enjoy their friendly confines of Rogers Arena this season.
The advanced metrics support that the Canucks are in a position to spoil the Kraken’s inaugural home game. Let’s break it down.
Vancouver Relies Heavily on Power Play
The Canucks offense relies heavily on special-teams production to create chances, which is paying off early this season.
At 5-on-5, the Canucks are attempting just 6.4 high-danger chances per game. However, across all strengths, that number jumps to 11.8, with Vancouver hitting double-digit chances in four of five games. Seattle has been ineffective at limiting chances on the penalty kill, something the Canucks can take advantage of.
Those special team metrics have helped the Canucks out-pace three of their five opponents in expected goals (xG) this season, although we are expecting further progression from Vancouver.
The Canucks’ actual goals for is below expected, and their shooting percentage ranks 24th, despite ranking in the top half of the league in production metrics. Increased offensive efficiency will facilitate a few more Canucks victories.
Seattle Needs Better Play Between Pipes
The Kraken’s best game score at 5-on-5 this season came in their opening game against Vegas, when they posted a 51.1% xG percentage. Seattle followed that up with four consecutive game scores below 45.1%, failing to generate any meaningful offense.
In the four games since their opener, the Kraken have attempted 28 cumulative quality chances, getting out-chanced in every game. As expected, that has resulted in a negative high-danger goal-differential, with Seattle getting outscored 8-3 at 5-on-5 in their past four games.
Home ice may level the playing field for the Kraken, but their production needs to improve before output follows.
The most concerning part of Seattle’s start to the season is Philipp Grubauer’s poor metrics. He finished third in Vezina Trophy voting last season but hasn’t found his rhythm with the Kraken.
Grubauer is stopping an embarrassingly low 86.7% of shots, including just 70.6% of high-danger chances. The Kraken will continue to slide until Grubauer figures things out.
Kraken vs. Canucks Pick
Neither team is on the right side of the PDO spectrum, but the Canucks have more metrics working in their favor, whereas the Kraken need their metrics to support increased output. The Canucks have been the better team, and they are the team to back at a pick ’em price.
Pick: Canucks -110
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