NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Flames vs. Rangers (February 6)

Flames vs. Rangers Odds

The All-Star break is over, and the push for the playoffs will now commence in the NHL on Monday night.

Calgary is currently on the outside looking in, and a shocking playoff miss would be an extreme disappointment for a team that held championship aspirations this summer.

The Flames were priced as slight underdogs on the road at +105, but the announcement of a start for Rangers backup Jaroslav Halak has swung Calgary's moneyline all the way to a pick'em.

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Who Are the Calgary Flames?

There continues to be a notable disconnect between Calgary's underlying results and actual record, as most models continue to believe that Darryl Sutter's crew is playing a very respectable brand of hockey.

Calgary sits just out of the final wild-card spot in the West on points %, which is a clear comment on how bad this team has been, especially evaluating how weak the Western Conference is.

The Flames own the league's 11th-highest expected goal differential at +14.17, they but own an actual goal differential of just +5.

A 4-9 record in 3-on-3 and shootout has also really affected Calgary's record on paper, and it's another valid argument that the Flames are slightly better than most may expect.

The Flames do not have a ton of elite scoring ability in their lineup, and it's clear that offensively the team may never be what some predicted.

Defensively, Calgary has remained one of the NHL's better sides, and put up a sixth-best 2.85 xGA/60 rating throughout January.

The surprisingly modest results in goal from 2021-22 Vezina nominee Jacob Markstrom has been a large concern.  Markstrom is listed as likely for tonight's contest despite the fact that backup Dan Vladar has been rattling off wins at an absurd clip lately.

Markstrom has played to a +1.2 GSAx rating and .893 save % throughout 33 games played.

Good News in Goal for New York Rangers

With Igor Shesterkin set to backup Monday, New York will be given another good opportunity to display how far its overall game has come since early on this season.

In the month of January, the Rangers played to a 51.1 xGF% across all strengths.

That 51.1% might sound like a modest mark with other elite teams up past 55%, but the difference in a few percent is very marginal when considering the ways New York can cover with its actual game.

The Rangers' defensive core has quietly become a tough unit, and it's been far more than just the Adam Fox Show on the Rangers blue-line this season; Ryan Lindgren and Ke'Andre Miller have continued to display tremendous development.

Jaroslav Halak remains a very strong backup option, and he has played to a +2.8 GSAx rating with a .908 save % throughout 13 appearances.

Flames vs. Rangers Pick

This looks like a spot where we will rarely see Calgary completely out of the game and should bring a strong performance. At worst with Halak in goal, the Flames should find away to make it a close contest, and Calgary would be my lean as a side.

New York has been bringing far more consistent well-rounded play in all areas for over a month, and the Rangers are tremendous at finding a way to hang around games and collect points.

Calgary has also had a very hard time putting teams away and taking advantage of quality scoring chances, and at this point, it's likely more than simple bad luck.

Coming out of the All-Star break is not a fun time to post bigger stakes since results can seemingly be a little more erratic, particularly in teams' first game back. That notion in combination with the idea that this should be a closely fought contest, makes my favorite play backing the game to go to overtime at +325.

Pick: Regulation tie/3-way moneyline (+325 at Caesars)