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NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Flames vs. Stars (March 6)

NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Flames vs. Stars (March 6) article feature image

Photo by Sam Hodde/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Jake Oettinger of the Dallas Stars, whose elite goaltending is a big reason why our expert is taking the under in our NHL odds, preview and prediction for Flames vs. Stars on March 6.

Flames vs. Stars Odds

Flames Odds +112
Stars Odds -134
Over/Under 6 (-106 / -114)
Time 8:30 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

Last spring, the Calgary Flames squeaked by the underdog Dallas Stars in an extremely hard fought, seven game series ending on Johnny Gaudreau’s game seven winner.

That moment likely feels like ages ago to Flames fans, who have watched a disastrous season unfold and enter this crucial matchup with just a 34% chance at playoffs (MoneyPuck).

It will be desperate to claim two points in a tough matchup versus the Stars here, who will skate as -130 favorites looking to build on a 17-8-8 mark at home.

Here are the NHL Odds, Preview and Prediction for Flames vs. Stars (March 6).

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Where There’s Smoke, There’s Flames

Calgary enters this matchup in the midst of a five-game losing streak, which has come against an alarmingly strong slate of competition with teams averaging 6th place in the league by points percentage.

The Flames have controlled more of the overall play in those matchups, posting a 52.33 xGF%, which is quite an impressive mark considering the extremely tough level of competition faced.

The greatest problem for Calgary has been an inability to convert its high quality chances into actual goals, and that is a problem which has persisted all season long from the Flames.

Calgary has scored just 1.6 goals for per game over this losing streak, and is getting another extremely formidable defensive opponent versus the Stars with an elite goaltender.

Opposition goalies have been the first star of the game 11 times versus Calgary this season, and one of the three stars on 23 occasions.

The inability to find plays which lead to easier finishing opportunities has been well documented, and the Flames have continued to allow opposition netminders to steal the show despite carrying much of the overall play.

Calgary has played in a ton of closely fought contests this season, with 18 heading past regulation, and its 5-13 mark in games ending in SO/3-on-3 has been another key to its underachievement.

Jacob Markstrom will likely start in goal for Calgary and has played to a +0.4 GSAx rating and .890 save % throughout 42 appearances.

Standing on Your Head in Dallas

Dallas bolstered its secondary scoring with the additions of Max Domi and Evgenii Dadonov at the trade deadline. GM Jim Nill clearly identified the correct weakness, as Dallas’ incredible top line and elite powerplay unit has been carrying too much of the burden for consecutive seasons.

The question will be how much that pair truly moves the needle compared to other elite Western sides.

Realistically, once facing top competition in the playoffs, Dallas will look to win coin-flip style affairs and lean on the elite goaltending of Jake Oettinger to come out on top of such a matchup.

Eight of the Stars’ last 15 contests have gone past regulation, and they have also struggled with 13 losses coming in 3-on-3 or shootout this season.

Oettinger should start Monday, and has played to a +16.5 GSAx and .922 save % throughout 47 appearances.

Flames vs. Stars Pick

In a lot of ways, Calgary has continued be a better team than its record suggests but has regularly found ways to lose games in which it appeared to be the better side overall.

The fact that even against top opposition Calgary has often controlled more of the play keeps me from wanting to back the Stars at -130.

Chances are the gameplay in this one will look closer than this price suggests, and if Dallas comes out with the win it will likely be somewhat on the merit that Jake Oettinger is an elite netminder.

Calgary is still defending at an elite level, and I am willing to bank on them not mailing it in yet and coming out with an inspired performance Monday.

There’s a lot of arguments which state that this spot should lead to a hard-fought playoff style affair.

If Calgary receives a reasonable performance in goal it should be able keep Dallas to a low total, but likely will have a hard time finishing chances coming on Oettinger.

Last years series averaged 4.14 goals per game, and I believe this matchup is likely to play out in a similar way and become a hard fought battle in which high quality chances are at a premium.

Backing the under 6 to -125 holds value, and is my favorite play on this matchup. A smaller wager on the game to go past regulation at +340 (BetRivers) also holds some solid merit.

Pick: Under 6 (play to -125); Regulation Tie (play to +300)

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