Sunday NHL Odds, Picks, Prediction: Seattle Kraken vs. Carolina Hurricanes Betting Preview
Chris Tanouye/Getty Images. Pictured: Andrei Svechnikov.
- The Hurricanes are massive favorites tonight against the lowly Kraken.
- Seattle has struggled mightily of late, while Carolina has been hugely impressive at home this season.
- Nicholas Martin breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.
Kraken vs. Hurricanes Odds
|Over/Under||6 (+100 / -120)|
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.|
Carolina’s push toward a second straight division title will continue here as it plays host to the lowly Kraken, as the Hurricanes look to build on a spectacular 20-4-2 record on home ice so far this season.
The Kraken’s third-worst record at 17-34-5 could be somewhat of an unfair comment towards the team’s overall play this season. Could they possibly steal a win here?
Four periods of poor play was long enough for Rod Brind’Amour’s Hurricanes group, who suffered a 4-0 defeat Thursday in Washington before falling behind 2-0 in the first to the Pens on Friday. Finally, Carolina made a big push against Pittsburgh with an overtime winner from Andrei Svechnikov, on the Canes 42nd shot of the game.
The win ended a rare two-game losing streak for Carolina, which has probably been even more dominant than it’s getting credit for this season, holding the most points in the top-heavy Eastern conference.
With Tony DeAngelo sidelined, the stellar defensive play of Jaccob Slavin has proven even more prominent. Ethan Bear has thrived of late, playing mainly alongside a tremendous partner in Slavin as most everyone seems to do.
Through 283.8 minutes together this season Slavin and Bear have posted a 56.4 expected goals rate, and Carolina still holds some strong defensive depth short one of its top pieces in DeAngelo.
Offensively, the Hurricanes hold a number of elite pieces. This should be a great spot for Canes to control far play and pay off lots of those chances against a soft netminder in Philipp Grubauer, who has simply not looked good on the kind of mid-range shots Carolina should generate at will.
Frederik Andersen will likely get the start for Carolina here, having rested Friday against Pittsburgh. He has been dominant behind a great defensive club, posting a +28.3 goals saved above expected rating with a .928 save percentage in 39 games this season.
Seattle finally snapped what was somewhat of an unlikely seven-game losing skid last time out, coming from two goals behind to produce one of the more positive moments in what has been a very lowly inaugural season.
Entering that win on Wednesday and entering Saturday’s game in Washington, the Kraken played to a very poor 41.66 expected goals rate in those previous seven games. Their once strong defensive play seems to have dipped of late, with the Kraken playing to a 3.10 expected goals per 60 rate during that span.
The defensive issues have been an especially bad problem because Grubauer, who will start here, holds a league-worst -30.2 goals saved above expected rating and .888 save percentage in 41 games this season.
Kraken vs. Hurricanes Pick
Perhaps analytically it may appear that the Kraken can make this a game half the time and in turn not lose by two or more. In my mind, though, an opening puck line of Hurricanes -1.5 at -110 vastly overrates Seattle.
The Canes have played to a 20-4-2 record on home ice with a +1.52 goal differential per game. You could say -110 for a puckline cover is about right for average competition heading in Raleigh.
However, Seattle is skating here in the second leg of a road back-to-back and is certainly below-average competition. I believe we have some obvious value on what is the square and obvious play looking towards this game.
Carolina should carry the bulk of the play in this one, generate a ton of shots and likely thrive offensively against Grubauer.
Books are less rigid with regards to what they feel to be “true odds” regarding NHL contests, and more often we will see significant line movement when the money comes in heavily on one side. At -110, I think this is another spot where we will clearly see one-way traffic betting wise. I like backing Carolina early to get a price that I believe holds strong value. It would certainly shock me to see Carolina at a better price by the time the puck drops.
I also don’t hate that Carolina already had a pure off-night in Washington this week, as well as an overtime loss to Detroit. It’s also in a competitive division race and should be well-prepared to make sure it claims two points. We should see the Canes at close to their best here, which will be far more than the Kraken can handle.
Pick: Hurricanes -1.5 -110 (play to -135)
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