NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Senators vs. Kings (November 27)

NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Senators vs. Kings (November 27) article feature image
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Amanda Cain/NHLI. Pictured: Josh Norris.

Kings vs. Senators Odds

Senators Odds +205
Kings Odds -250
Over/Under 5.5
Time 7 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

Ottawa will head in to the Staples Center having been shut out for the third time in six contests Friday, falling to Anaheim 4-0. Hosts Los Angeles will try to snap a losing skid extended to five games, after a thorough 6-2 defeat at the hands of the Maple Leafs on Wednesday.

Senators Roster Not Up to Snuff

After a very scrappy second half last season, the Senators entered this year offering much more promise to their fans. Well that cause for optimism has certainly not come to fruition in the early going this season.

The early results could quietly be a blessing in disguise, however, considering the depth of elite talent at the top of this summer’s draft for a non-contending team.

That said, these are proud professional athletes, and although a messy COVID situation clearly worsened things, this roster simply should not be this poor.

The team has clearly played better the last two times out, and some tough puck-luck in close moments of the game Friday against Anaheim clearly influenced the final score.

The young core of high picks such as Thomas Chabot, Tim Stuetzle and Brady Tkachuk have all been disappointing in the early going this season, but I still think this team holds the talent to compete more reasonably in a league and sport which simply offers so much parity.

Their poor control of the play overall (43.15 xGF% rating) has certainly been worsened by some very weak goaltending (and sloppy defensive breakdowns).

Comparatively, the Kings have ridden a 46.55 xGF% to a .500 record, and while that rating means far from everything, it is a comment that the teams could be closer longterm than early results indicate.

Fillip Gustavsson will draw the start for the Sens and does offer their best numbers with a .905 SV% and -1.6 goals saved above expected rating (GSAx).

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Kings Riding Five-Game Winless Streak

The Kings’ 0-3-2 streak immediately after a seven-game winning stretch has offered a great glimpse into how close the margin between winning and losing in the NHL can be.

Suddenly close victories have become close defeats, and the team has had a hard time finishing chances, posting a poor 1.8 goals for per game average over the losing streak.

However, their actual output sits 7.53 goals below their expected total across all situations through those five games, and an offensive breakthrough seems likely to come soon against a porous Senators defense.

The team doesn’t offer a lot of elite offensive talent, but there are some guys who I feel can provide more than we have seen of late.

Viktor Arvidsson has looked progressively more dangerous in four contests since returning to action, and he is still a player I really feel offers a strong offensive skillset when in form. Arvidsson did break through with two points against the Leafs, and I think we will continue to see better results from him going forward.

Arthur Kaliyev and Rasmus Kupari both offer some strong skillsets as well, but both young talents have shown how hard it can be to post offensive results at the NHL level in the early going this season, but they offer a glimpse into the Kings bright future.

Jonathan Quick is likely to start for the Kings, and at age 35, he has been a very enjoyable story as he has turned back the clock with some strong results so far this season, in stopping .928 % of shots faced with a 7.1 GSAx rating.

Senators vs. Kings Pick

Ottawa has clearly not played well of late, but I believe its game is trending in a better direction so far on this road trip. It has featured some treacherous puck-luck in meaningful moments the last two times out, including a trio of posts yesterday while the game was close in Anaheim.

It’s obvious logic, but no team is as bad as they look at their absolute bottom,   as we have seen of late with the Coyotes, Kraken and Blackhawks all trending upwards after horrific starts to the season in a sport which simply offers so much parity when played at a high level.

I think there’s a chance we may see an offensive breakthrough from the Senators tomorrow against a Kings team that has skated a sixth-worst xGA/60 rating of 2.77 its last 10 games.

The Senators themselves have offered poor defensive numbers, with the league’s second-worst xGA/60 over that span at 2.94, and the Kings appear due for better offensive results than what we have seen lately.

The goaltending situation is pretty awful for the Senators, and I’m uncertain of their chances to hold the Kings to a lower total tomorrow should they continue to improve their play.

This game offers two of the league’s lesser offenses, but I actually think this sets up as a good spot to back some goals. I would play total line (5.5) all the way to -125 (but you should likely be able to find a better number).

As well, I see more value on Ottawa as a side, but the line still doesn’t offer quite enough for me to play it. If the puck-line (+1.5) gets closer to -130 by game time, I would play it.

Pick: Over 5.5 -115 | Play to -125

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