NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Wild vs Islanders (Tuesday, November 7)
Pictured: Matt Boldy. (Photo by Bruce Kluckhohn/NHLI via Getty Images)
Wild vs. Islanders Odds
| Wild Odds | +106 |
| Islanders Odds | -128 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -134 / +110 |
The days of Minnesota playing a slow, low-event style of hockey seem to be long gone. Wild contests have averaged 7.73 goals this season as star netminder Filip Gustavsson has struggled and the team's defensive play has taken a significant step backward.
The Islanders' defense hasn't lived up to their reputation either. They've allowed 35.43 shots against per 60 minutes of play this season. How will that impact Tuesday night's game? Let's make a prediction for Wild vs. Islanders tonight.
The Wild's defensive play hasn't been as sharp as we have traditionally seen in the Dean Evason era. Minnesota has yet to play with captain Jared Spurgeon in the lineup and his elite play-driving abilities have been missed. Strong defensive play from center Matt Boldy was also absent, but he returned two games ago against the Devils.
Minnesota's 3.27 xGA/60 ranks 13th and suggests that positive regression may be on the horizon if the Wild are to receive more reasonable goaltending. As it stands, Minnesota has allowed 4.18 goals per game.
Gustavsson has had an abysmal start to the campaign with -6.7 GSAx and a .871 save % in seven appearances.
He was incredible last season, which suggests his play should pick up. Of course, projecting goaltending is difficult and starters with far more lengthy samples of dominance than Gustavsson have fizzled out.
Backup Marc-Andre Fleury owns a -4.0 GSAx and a .893 save % in his five appearances and could be in line for this start. He will likely continue to post well below-average results again this year.
The Wild have been clinical in front of goal and are due for some regression in terms of their shooting percentage. However, with Marco Rossi playing like a legitimate top-six forward and Matt Boldy back in the mix, the Wild should remain an upper-middle-of-the-pack offense.
Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin have combined to put up a .922 save % in the early going, which has been the greatest reason for New York's 5-3-2 record.
The Islanders' 3.80 xGA/60 is the third-worst mark in the league, but the incredible play of their goaltenders has hidden that concern.
Bo Horvat and Adam Pelech are both listed as day-to-day.
Both players are crucial pieces for an Islanders side that is already struggling to limit the opposition's offensive zone time.
Wild vs. Islanders
Betting Pick & Prediction
The defensive reputation of each team seems to be keeping this total below where it deserves to be.
The Wild haven't defended overly well by any means, and have received poor goaltending from both Fleury and Gustavsson. However, they have consistently outscored those troubles and should be able to generate lots of offensive chances against the Islanders.
Meanwhile, the Islanders' defensive play has also looked significantly worse than in years past, though that has been hidden by stellar goaltending. Even considering the ridiculous standard Sorokin has set, the Islanders are due to allow more goals if they keep defending as they have been.
NHL totals of 5.5 should be reserved for notably low-event teams at this point given how scoring has inflated. The Minnesota Wild don't meet that definition, so if you can get 5.5, this is a great spot to bet the over. At 6, I'd still be the over to -110.
Pick: Over 5.5 (-128) | Play to 6 (-110)
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