Kai Kara-France vs. Brandon Royval Odds, Pick & Prediction: Bet the Experienced, Explosive Fighter at UFC 253
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Kai Kara-France of New Zealand.
- Kai Kara-France (-223 odds) and relative UFC newcomer Brandon Royval (+174 odds) are each looking to move up the flyweight ranks at Fight Island.
- Sean Zerillo sees two bets offering value in the matchup.
- Check out his full breakdown and picks below.
Kai Kara-France vs. Brandon Royval Odds
| Kara-France odds | -223 [BET NOW] |
| Royval odds | +174 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-186/+144) [BET NOW] |
| Venue | Yas Island, Abu Dhabi |
| Time | Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET |
| Channel | ESPN PPV |
Odds as of Saturday at 9 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where you can get $250 FREE instantly after signing up AND your bets automatically sync to the Action app.Learn more about BetSync here.
Brandon Royval impressed in his UFC debut in May, but faces a much tougher challenge at UFC 253 when he takes on Kai Kara-France. The two top-10 flyweights are separated by just one year in age, but the New Zealand native, Kara-France, has double the professional experience entering the matchup.
Here's an in-depth preview of Saturday's matchup below, including how I'm planning to bet the fight before the value is gone. You can also check out my analysis of all 11 bouts here.
Tale of the Tape
| Kara-France | Royval | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-8 (1 NC) | 11-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:00 | 8:18 |
| Height | 5'4" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 68" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 3/26/93 | 8/16/92 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.27 | 1.93 |
| SS Accuracy | 38% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.79 | 2.05 |
| SS Defense | 67% | 46% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.60 | 1.81 |
| TD Acc | 100% | 25% |
| TD Def | 100% | 48% |
| Submission Avg | 6.9 | 2.0 |
Kai Kara-France vs. Brandon Royval Betting Pick
Kara-France ("KKF") is another member of the City Kickboxing team on Saturday's card. He is a high volume striker (5.27 landed per minute, 38% accuracy) with excellent takedown defense (90%) who should have more than enough skill to take care of Brandon Royval in this spot.
KKF is simply too explosive of a striker for Royval, who has a 5-inch height advantage, but is extremely hittable.
Royval is an opportunistic grappler who tends to span submission attempts rather than working for position, and KKF's weakness is his grappling. But you have to both get him down and keep him down first — and Royval isn't a very adept wrestler.
Royval needs to get a knockdown with his big looping punches or get KKF to initiate a grappling exchange in order to navigate his most likely path to victory.
If this bout goes to the scorecards, it's hard to imagine KKF not coming out on top, and there is value on both his moneyline and decision prop.
The Bet: Kai Kara-France to win by Decision (-110, 0.5 units) | Parlay: Brad Riddell/Kai Kara France (-106, 0.5 units)
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