Ketlen Vieira vs. Sijara Eubanks Odds, Pick and Prediction: How to Find Betting Value in This UFC 253 Matchup
Brett Carlsen/Getty Images. Pictured: Sijara Eubanks.
- Top-15 women's bantamweights Ketlen Vieira (-200 odds) and Sijara Eubanks (+158 odds) meet on the main card at UFC 253.
- Sean Zerillo isn’t finding value on either side, but he's taking a prop in tonight’s matchup.
- Check out Zerillo's full breakdown for updated odds, picks, and predictions ahead of Saturday night's fight.
Ketlen Vieira vs. Sijara Eubanks Odds
|Vieira odds||-200 [BET NOW]|
|Eubanks odds||+158 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-358/+260) [BET NOW]|
|Venue||Yas Island, Abu Dhabi|
|Time||Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET|
Sijara Eubanks enters this main card matchup with Ketlen Vieira on short notice after having fought on Sept. 12. In fact, Eubanks will have fought at every venue the UFC has staged fights in since returning from its hiatus (Jacksonville, Las Vegas, Yas Island) and has a chance to get a win at all three locations on Saturday.
Here’s an in-depth preview of Saturday’s matchup below, including how I’m planning to bet the fight before the value is gone. You can also check out my analysis of all 11 bouts here.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||11:49||15:00|
|Weight (pounds)||135 lbs.||135 lbs.|
|Date of birth||8/26/91||4/27/85|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||2.74||4.71|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||3.82||3.14|
|Take Down Avg||2.03||2.17|
Vieira vs. Eubanks Betting Pick
Eubanks defeated Julia Avila in impressive fashion just two weeks ago, and will now turn around to face Vieira on short notice after an injury to Marion Reneau.
Vieira (4 inches taller) should have the size advantage in this fight, but Eubanks (+1.57 to -1.08 strike differential, +7% accuracy, +3% defense) should have the advantage on the feet, and she has the grappling chops to neutralize Vieira on the mat.
This is a relatively difficult comeback fight for Vieira, who was knocked out by Irene Aldana in December. Eubanks is much better than her record indicates, but I’m also not going to completely flip to backing her after being on the Avila side against her very recently.
ICYMI: The big KO by Irene Aldana over Ketlen Vieira at #UFC245.
— Bloody Elbow (@BloodyElbow) December 15, 2019
Eubanks has never been finished in her career and has shown both durability on the feet and the jiu-jitsu defense technique to avoid getting caught in bad positions. Eubanks busted up Avila pretty well, but she has also never recorded a finish of her own in the UFC.
I projected this bout to go the distance 78% of the time, implied odds of -355, and you can make the wager at a 5.8% edge at odds of -260 (implied 72.2%) to win a half unit — but I wouldn’t play it past -275.
The Bet: Fight to Go the Distance (-260, 0.5 units)