UFC Betting Picks & Predictions: Our Best Bets for Andrew Sanchez-Wellington Turman and Derrick Lewis-Aleksei Oleinik
Valery Sharifulin\TASS via Getty Images. Pictured: Russian mixed martial artist Aleksei Oleinik.
- UFC is ready for another Fight Night this weekend in Las Vegas.
- Our experts make their favorite bets on the 12-fight card.
- See the full betting breakdown below.
While the NBA and MLB are still trying to get their footing, the UFC is hitting its stride with another weekend of Fight Night action at the Apex in Las Vegas.
Saturday’s card will feature 12 bouts with seven prelim fights kicking off at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN. The main card starts at 9 p.m. ET, headlined by a clash clash of two top-10 heavyweights Derrick Lewis and Aleksei Oleinik.
Our UFC crew has pinpointed the fights on Saturday’s card that present the best betting value. You can find their analysis and picks on those matches below.
Don’t forget, you can now track your UFC bets in the Action Network App!
Sean Zerillo: Andrew Sanchez vs. Wellington Turman
Betting Analyst, The Action Network
One underdog that I like on Saturday’s card is Andrew Sanchez against Wellington Turman. Sanchez should be the cleaner striker at double the volume (4.49 to 2.43 strikes landed per minute), the question is whether his takedown defense is sturdy enough to stop Turman from executing his gameplan and whether his gas tank can last into the later stages of this fight.
Sanchez has been defeated by other volume strikers who could push the pace – while Turman is quite the opposite — and this matchup plays to the strengths of “El Dirte.” I expect Sanchez to take at least two of the three rounds.
I like Sanchez’s moneyline, but if you want some better odds, playing him to win by decision seems like his clear path to victory — though I don’t see a reason to double-down.
The Pick: Sanchez ML (+130)
Reed Wallach: Lewis vs. Oleinik
Contributor at The Action Network
Oleinik opened as a +225 underdog in this match last week, but has been steadily bet down ever since, and for good reason.
When capping the UFC, I try to think “how can this person win the fight, what is the path for victory?” Well, “The Boa Constrictor” is a live dog because he has a clear path to getting his hand raised.
Oleinik is a true submission artist. Entering his 74th career fight, 46 of Oleinik’s 59 wins have come via submission, which is rare for a heavyweight. Oleinik finds a way to get his opponent to the ground and puts them out in vicious fashion.
His opponent, Lewis, is your natural heavyweight who has one-punch knockout power. He is the type of fighter who has given the 43-year-old Oleinik trouble over the years. Walt Harris knocked Oleinik out with a knee in the first 12 seconds of their fight, Alistair Overeem did the same after Oleinik gassed and Curtis Blaydes had his way with him before the doctor called it. Oleinik is prone to being knocked out, and Lewis is a dangerous threat.
That being said, Lewis is not the best at stunting takedowns. With a 53% takedown defense per UFCStats.com, Lewis’ opponents have been able to get him to the mat, a necessity for Oleinik to hang in this fight. In his last two fights, both decision wins for Lewis, Blagoy Ivanov was able to get three of six takedowns and Ilir Latifi was able to secure three of seven takedown attempts. Lewis is vulnerable in this part of his game.
Even with the knockout power of Lewis, and the questionable gas tank of Oleinik, who seemed to be running on fumes in his most recent fight, a win against Fabricio Werdum, I keep coming back to the Boa.
There is a chance that Lewis, who lost a title fight to Daniel Cormier in 2018, may have turned a corner after getting in better shape and wants to get back in the title mix, but at any line above +150, I’m siding with Oleinik to pick up win No. 60 and continue his surprising run up the heavyweight class.
The Pick: Oleinik ML (+160)