UFC Mexico Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Best Bets for Moreno vs Royval, Rodriguez vs Ortega & More (Saturday, February 24)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC bantamweight Raul Rosas Jr. of Mexico
Check out the latest UFC odds and UFC Mexico best bets for the Saturday event on ESPN+, which kicks off at 7 p.m. ET (4 p.m. PT).
UFC Mexico: Moreno vs. Royval 2 takes place at Arena CDMX in Mexico City, which is located more than 7,000 feet above sea level. That elevation is the main reason t0night's 13-bout fight card has matchups of only 155 pounds or lighter.
In the UFC Mexico main event, former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno rematches fellow 125-pound contender Brandon Royval. And in the five-round co-main event, 145-pounders Yair Rodriguez and Brian Ortega fight to stay relevant in the featherweight title picture.
So where should be looking to place your UFC Mexico bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights, including those two featured bouts, that present betting value.
You can find their analysis, predictions and picks for those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below (odds via BetMGM).
Matchup odds as of Saturday and via FanDuel. Bet on UFC Mexico with our FanDuel promo code!
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
Tony Sartori: Manuel Torres vs. Chris Duncan
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:55 p.m. ET
Kicking off the main card is a lightweight bout between unranked contenders Manuel Torres (-184) and Chris Duncan (+154). The UFC loves to start its main cards with fights that are likely to end in a finish, and that is certainly the case on Saturday as oddsmakers have priced this bout at -135 to end in the first round.
This bodes well for Torres, which is why we have seen such aggressive line movement on the favorite from -135 all the way to his current price of up to -200. He's gotten off to a perfect start in the UFC, going 3-0 with three first-round knockouts since his appearance on Dana White's Contender Series in 2021.
If we are going to target Torres in a fight that is expected to end early, then we can bring the -192 down to +120 if we take him to win by KO/TKO at bet365, a great price that is currently four to 30 cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing.
Torres has been telling the media all week that he is going to put on a show to kick off this main card, and considering that last elbow knockout over Nikolas Motta, he has the power/violence to back up those words.
Torres certainly possesses the grappling ability to hunt a submission, but considering it will be Duncan's game plan to turn this into a wrestling match on the mat, we should expect the favorite to want to keep this bout standing. This fight provides a good striking advantage for Torres, given that his reach is two inches longer while he's also more than two years younger.
He is more accurate, more powerful and is better defensively when standing up against Duncan. Torres has also stuffed all six takedown attempts he has seen in the UFC, which is a good sign that he can keep Duncan on the feet.
Duncan has only one loss in his career, but it was by knockout when Viacheslav Borshchev starched him with a left hook. Torres certainly carries the power to do the same.
The Pick: Manuel Torres by KO/TKO (+120 at bet365)
Billy Ward: Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Ricky Turcios
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:55 p.m. ET
All right, I’ll bite. I was on Raul Rosas Jr. earlier in the week at a worse price than this, and I normally don’t love chasing reverse line movement – but this one is hard to pass up.
The youngest-ever UFC fighter – who competed on Contender Series before his 18th birthday – certainly lost a bit of steam last year. That was thanks to a loss to Christian Rodriguez, himself a highly regarded prospect, against whom Rosas couldn’t get anything going after a strong first round.
His other two UFC appearances were first-round finishes, albeit over fighters who’ve combined to go 0-5 in the UFC. Regardless, you can’t do much more than quickly finish the guy they put in front of you.
It’s important to consider why the UFC made this fight. It certainly wasn’t to get in the Ricky Turcios business, especially not when they put it in Mexico City. Turcios (+190), like Rosas (-230), is 2-1 in the UFC – but is arguably the perfect matchup for the 19-year-old.
That’s because both of Turcios’ wins were split decisions, and he was taken down a combined 13 times in those matchups. Rosas is a fairly one-dimensional grappler, but what else would he need against Turcios? The identical records give this one an air of legitimacy, but don’t get it twisted: There’s a clear “A-side” to this matchup.
Of course, I do worry about Rosas’ cardio, particularly in the Mexico City elevation. It’s been a weakness at sea level, and it won’t be any better at 7,000 feet above sea level. That makes this a perfect live hedge opportunity on Turcios.
I wouldn’t lay this juice if you’re unable to bet the other side after Round 1. Rosas will almost certainly dominate early, which it should drive the price up on Turcios. That way, we can lock in a profit either way – unless Rosas finishes him early, in which case we’ve already won.
The Pick: Raul Rosas Jr. (-218 at DraftKings)
Sean Zerillo: Yair Rodriguez vs. Brian Ortega
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 p.m. ET
Our co-main event features featherweights Yair Rodriguez (-148) vs. Brian Ortega (+126).
I wrote about this fight in July 2022 – and bet Ortega inside the distance (+150) and by submission (+230). The prices on both props have only improved since then (to +200 and +375, respectively), with Ortega moving from a -175 favorite (63.6% implied) to a +125 underdog (44.4% implied) after injuring his shoulder.
While my initial read on the fight has stayed the same, the action in the first bout dictated a potentially more binary outcome than I initially anticipated. Ortega had extreme difficulty dealing with Yair's speed at distance – and his poor defense (49% career) leaves him vulnerable in a kickboxing match against a dynamic striker, despite incredible durability.
Still, Ortega had complete control of the first matchup both in the clinch and on the mat, and he remains the most challenging grappling test of Rodriguez's career.
To reiterate some points from my initial breakdown:
Rodriguez has never been challenging to take down or control, and opponents can dominate him with grappling-oriented game plans. He ceded a full round of control time to Max Holloway – while giving up his back multiple times.
Rodriguez prefers it when opponents oblige a kickboxing match, but his overall game is far less effective if they try to grapple him too. Additionally, Rodriguez tends to overextend on his strikes and fall to the canvas. And Ortega will certainly pounce and look to capitalize on those mistakes.
Ortega has been an anomaly throughout his career, regularly snatching victory from the jaws of defeat after trailing on minutes.
While Rodriguez has been the more active fighter – and Ortega is coming off a lengthy layoff, without a win since October 2020 – he still has a significant advantage in one facet of MMA when he's locked inside a cage with Rodriguez.
Take advantage of the price adjustment, and bet Ortega to win by submission (projected +288, listed +375 at WynnBet). Alternatively, bet Ortega to win inside the distance (projected +207, listed +200 at DraftKings) as the odds on the submission price move close together.
The Pick: Brian Ortega by Submission (+375 at WynnBet)
Dann Stupp: Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:25 a.m. ET
Before I jump into my UFC Mexico best bet for this week, I'd like to talk about my UFC Mexico almost-best bet of Daniel Zellhuber vs. Francisco Prado over 2.5 rounds, which is available at -110 odds.
That play will still be on my official betting card, but for my primo pick of the weekend, I'm going to the UFC Mexico main event of Brandon Moreno (-290) vs. Brandon Royval (+235).
The flyweight rematch should be a banger, and my colleague Sean Zerillo did an absolutely fantastic job of breaking down Moreno vs. Royval 2 and explaining why former 125-champ Moreno is the rightful favorite.
However, I need to pick not only a winner, but I also need to find a betting angle that presents value. I think Moreno wins this bout, but I don't necessarily want to pay the steep moneyline price of -300, which actually seems to be a fair line.
However, we can eliminate a lot of the chalk if we dip into the method-of-victory markets. More specifically, we're going to target the "double chance" option, in which we bet on a fighter to win by two of the three possible outcomes (knockout, submission, decision).
I think Moreno's path to victory is on the mat, where I think he ultimately snags a late-fight submission victory on a tiring foe. Worst case, Moreno should take the decision if the fight plays out like I imagine. So I'm taking Moreno to win by submission or decision.
One reason we're getting solid -140 odds on this combo-finish bet is that Moreno won the last bout via "TKO." However, veteran UFC viewers know that the official fight result doesn't tell the whole story (a shoulder injury forced Royval to bow out). Moreno packs a powerful punch, no doubt. But with the Mexican fighter's recent focus on the ground game and Royval's shoddy sometimes-takedown defense, I think the KO threat decreases substantially in this fight. Yet, the lines probably still favor that previous "TKO finish" a bit.
That's why I'm picking Moreno to win – but not straight up on the moneyline. Instead, I'm going to FanDuel's double-chance menu and taking "Brandon Moreno by Submission or on Points" to get a very attractive -140 odds. Play it down to -160.
The Pick: Brandon Moreno by Submission or Decision (-140 at FanDuel)
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