UFC Vegas 85 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Themba Gorimbo vs. Pete Rodriguez: This 2-1 Underdog Has Nasty a Bite (Saturday, February 3)

Themba Gorimbo vs. Pete Rodriguez Odds

Here's everything you need to know about Themba Gorimbo vs. Pete Rodriguez at UFC Vegas 85 on Saturday, Feb. 3 – our expert UFC prediction and pick with a big underdog play.

Saturday's UFC Vegas 85 lineup is light on name recognition, particularly on the preliminary card. Of course, that doesn't mean there's not betting value to be found – often that means there's more.

Such is the case with Themba Gorimbo vs. Pete Rodriguez, which features a pair of 1-1 UFC fighters. Both fighters come in with their lone win over somewhat low-level competition, making them hard to evaluate.

However, I've dug through the tape and found a bet that I love for this "just-some-guys" prelim bout.

Tale of the Tape

Pete Rodriguez has had an interesting start to his UFC career.

He made his debut back at UFC 270 as a short-notice replacement against Jack Della Maddalena. That one went about as expected, with the now-ranked JDM dispatching Rodriguez inside three minutes.

To be fair to Rodriguez, he actually had some early success in that fight and showed off some slick boxing before Maddalena adjusted to his style and started picking him apart with jabs.

As a reward for saving the fight with Maddalena, Rodriguez then got the honor of mercifully ending Mike Jackson's UFC career. The story behind how Jackson even ended up with an active contract is a long one, but he was fairly easily the worst UFC fighter on the roster. That too went as expected, with "Dead Game" flattening Jackson with a first-round knee.

All of which is to say we can't say much about Rodriguez. He looks to have fairly solid boxing, especially when targeting the body. He tends to overthrow a bit – which led to both Maddalena picking him apart and the vicious knockout of Jackson.

That skill set won't hold up against higher-level strikers, but power and aggression can overwhelm lesser opponents.

Themba Gorimbo falls in the latter category, at least on the feet. An awkward, long fighter, he's known for his grappling prowess but hasn't looked comfortable striking.

In his UFC debut, Gorimbo landed just six significant strikes in six minutes despite having a 10-inch reach edge on his opponent, AJ Fletcher.

He managed to pick up two takedowns, but he did very little with them – not even attempting a ground strike and allowing Fletcher to spend most of the round in dominant position.

Then Gorimbo ate an elbow on the feet before diving into a guillotine from Fletcher.

Gorimbo looked slightly better in his follow-up against Takashi Sato, including landing a second-round knockdown. But he was still desperately trying to grapple, going three of eight on takedown attempts.

Gorimbo ended up winning a decision, but it was the fourth straight loss for Sato, so it doesn't tell us much.

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Gorimbo vs. Rodriguez Pick

I understand the logic of Gorimbo being favored here. He has the reach, experience and grappling edge over Rodriguez, who looked more like an old-school brawler than a UFC-level fighter in his past appearances.

What I don't understand is the more than 2-1 odds. This is a striker-vs.-grappler matchup on paper, but the grappler hasn't attempted to ground and pound or submit either of his prior opponents. Gorimbo fights like he's trying to win a jiu-jitsu match on points rather than finish an MMA fight.

In addition, it's hard to buy the narrative of his grappling prowess when he was submitted by a guillotine without an attempt to avoid or defend. I can give him a slight pass since given the damage he took shortly before, but any reasonably solid grappler has better instincts than that even when rocked.

Given Rodriguez's power and aggression, I expect Gorimbo to find himself rocked on the feet at some point here.

My initial read was Rodriguez by knockout, but at +275, the difference between that and his moneyline isn't quite enough. Instead, I'm taking Rdoriguez straight up at +210 on DraftKings. That way, we're covered in the case of a "damage against control" decision verdict – or a club-and-sub win.

If his moneyline falls below +200, I'd consider switching to the knockout (or finish) prop instead.

The Pick: Pete Rodriguez +210 (DraftKings)