UFC Vegas 85 Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Best Bets for Roman Dolidze vs. Nassourdine Imavov (Saturday, February 3)
Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC women’s flyweight Natalia Silva of Brazil
Check out our UFC Vegas 85 best bets for the Saturday, Feb. 3 event, which features a Roman Dolidze vs. Nassourdine Imavov main event.
UFC Vegas 85 takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, and the entire event streams on ESPN+ beginning at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT).
Saturday's card features 13 fights in all – with solid depth up and down the fight card.
So where should be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and picks, including three prop bets and a juicy underdog, on Saturday’s card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis, picks and the latest odds on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from BetMGM.
Check out the new user BetMGM bonus code offer before placing your UFC Vegas 85 bets on Saturday night.
Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
Tony Sartori: Azat Maksum vs. Charles Johnson
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:55 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC Vegas 85 prelims feature a flyweight bout with Charles Johnson (+200) taking on Azat Maksum (-250). Maksum brings in a spotless 17-0 professional record, which is why we are catching him at such a long price of -225 on the moneyline.
With that said, we can bring this price down to +110 at FanDuel if we take Maksum to win on the scorecards, which is what I believe is the most likely outcome for him in this bout. First, Johnson is just simply not very good, and he's won just two fights in the UFC while dropping four or six total and all of his past three.
The one thing I will say about Johnson is that he is tough to get out of the cage early. All four of those losses came by decision.
In fact, between his 25 total professional and amateur mixed martial arts bouts, Johnson has never been knocked out or submitted. All six of his pro losses and two amateur losses came by decision; the guy lives up to his "InnerG" nickname.
However, just because he is tough and can survive does not mean that Saturday is going to be any fun against the undefeated Maksum. Johnson's striking may keep things competitive, but he will likely not have any answer for Maksum's grappling/wrestling.
The former has gotten dominated on the mat in all three of his recent losses, with Ode Osbourne landing three takedowns, Cody Durden landed 11 of 18 (!) while accumulating 9:33 of control time. And Rafael Estevam landed three while racking up 9:23 of control.
That is back-to-back fights in which the opposing fighter garnered almost 10 minutes of control time in a 15-minute bout, which is pretty ridiculous. This is the area of the game where Maksum should set himself apart in the eyes of the judges, but I also think he will be able to hang in there on the feet as well.
However, getting Johnson out of the cage early has been a task that not a single of the 19 professional mixed martial arts practitioners to face him has been able to do.
The Pick: Azat Maksum via Decision (+110 at FanDuel)
Sean Zerillo: Diana Belbita vs. Molly McCann
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:25 p.m. ET
Diana Belbita (+220) is my favorite underdog bet on Saturday's card as he gets a rematch with Molly McCann (-275).
McCann won the first matchup four years ago decisively (30-25 on all scorecards), but the fight was much more competitive than the final score indicates; the first round was a tossup, and Belbita lost a point for a fence grab in Round 2.
Belbita won many striking exchanges in that matchup (led 76-73 at a distance) but struggled with McCann's wrestling while permitting five takedowns.
That fight was also Belbita's UFC debut; she's had four years to improve her defensive grappling and get stronger (now in her prime at age 27), and she subsequently moved down to strawweight, where McCann will compete for the first time on Saturday.
McCann (33) is older than the divisional average (31), had her arm snapped in her last fight in July, and has regressed, if anything, since the first fight with Belbita.
Belbita will be the taller and longer fighter (three inches taller with a six-inche reach advantage) – and make the most out of her length at range.
If McCann doesn't grapple as frequently – or as successfully – as she did in the first matchup, the rematch should play close to a 50/50 striking fight, where McCann potentially fades late after cutting to 115 pounds for the first time.
I projected Belbita's moneyline at +190. Bet her down to that number, and consider poking Belbita's decision prop (projected +310, listed +370) or including it on your round-robin tickets.
The Pick: Diana Belbita (+222 at WynnBET)
Dann Stupp: Viviane Araujo vs. Natalia Silva
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:55 p.m. ET
Saturday's UFC Vegas 85 main card features a crackerjack of a fight between flyweights Viviane Araujo (+280) and Natalia Silva (-375).
The all-Brazilian matchup has seen 26-year-old Silva, who's 11 years the junior to Araujo, swell to a substantial -355 favorite throughout fight week.
Honestly? Even at that price, Silva is probably still a pretty solid parlay piece.
But to really maximize our potential value, I'm going to target a different betting market.
I like Silva's ability to get the job done – and to do it decisively – while her career is peaking and Araujo's is winding down. With 10 straight wins, including a 4-0 start to her UFC career, Silva is charging up the top-10 rankings.
Araujo, meanwhile, recently got out of a 1-3 skid by beating fellow mid-30s vet Jennifer Maia.
A cursory look at each fighter's most recent win doesn't tell the whole story, though. Silva earned a "decision" win over Andrea Lee but thoroughly whooped her, leaving the Texan wobbled and gushing blood from the opening round. Araujo, meanwhile, beat Maia in her last time out, but she gave up the final round on all three judges' cards as her overall effectiveness quickly fell off a cliff.
I think those somewhat deceiving results are reflected in the betting markets, especially those that involve this fight ending inside the distance. While I initially planned to bet on this fight to end inside the distance – and thus, also hedging against an Araujo finish – at juicy +200 odds, I just don't see Araujo being much of a threat in this fight. Sure, it's been a minute since she lost a fight by stoppage, but I just think Silva is something special.
So, I'm going to FanDuel, which is offering us even better +280 odds on Silva to win inside the distance – a huge discount on her moneyline price (-355). Those odds suggest Silva wins 78.0% of the time – but just 26.3% of the time by KO or submission.
Me? I put those stoppage odds no worse than 33.3% (+200), so I think this a great long-odds bet to target on fight night this weekend.
The Pick: Natalia Silva by KO/TKO or Submission (+280 at FanDuel)
Billy Ward: Roman Dolidze vs. Nassourdine Imavov
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
The UFC Vegas 85 main event features two middleweight contenders looking to get back into the win column after having their momentum snapped in 2023. The favorite here is Nassourdine Imavov, a Dagestani-born fighter representing France.
Imavov (-165) does his best work on the feet, where he’s outlanded all but one of his UFC opponents – that being volume king and former champion Sean Strickland. However, Imavov’s striking is more about volume than power, and he’s never scored a knockdown in the UFC.
Which is a stark contrast to his opponent, Roman Dolidze (+135). Dolidze throws everything hard, and he picked up three consecutive knockout wins before losing a decision to Marvin Vettori last March.
(Very soon, the Tar Heel State is expected to launch North Carolina sports betting fully online. Keep up with the latest happenings.)
That gives Dolidze all the finishing upside on the feet, but the grappling is what really brings this bet together. Both of Imavov’s UFC finishes were knockouts, but both took place on the ground. However, that’s a dangerous proposition against Dolidze.
“The Caucasian” spent the first half of his combat-sports career as a submission grappler, winning the ADCC Asia and Oceania trials in 2016 before transitioning to MMA. He’s as dangerous as any UFC fighter off his back, and taking him down is a risky proposition.
With Imavov likely needing a takedown to secure a finish, that makes this a fairly binary fight. I agree with my colleague Sean Zerillo that the likeliest outcome is an Imavov win on the feet. However, if this fight gets finished, it’s probably Dolidze doing it.
The “decision no bet” market at FanDuel refunds your stake if the fight hits the judges, regardless of the winner. I also like Dolidze to win inside the distance at +200 or so if you’re willing to take on more risk in exchange for more reward.
The Pick: Roman Dolidze – Decision No Bet (+110 at FanDuel)
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