Lakers vs. Warriors NBA Player Prop: Expert Fading Andrew Wiggins on Opening Night (October 18)

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Andrew Wiggins, 23.5 PTS + REB + AST

The Warriors begin their latest title defense when the NBA kicks off Tuesday night. Coming off a shortened off-season, head coach Steve Kerr indicated that his starters (plus Jordan Poole) will have their minutes capped to begin the 2022-23 campaign.

And that’s only one of the reasons I’m looking to fade Andrew Wiggins against the Lakers.

Wiggins is coming off a well-rounded season in which he averaged 23.9 combined points, rebounds and assists (PRA) for the Warriors. However, his PRA dipped to 22.1 over the 29 games after Klay Thompson’s arrival. He stayed under this line in 20 of those 29 contests (69%).

And those numbers were based on Wiggins’ average of 32 minutes per game. Ironically enough, the Warriors had the forward on an undefined minutes limit in their first game of last season (also against the Lakers). While Wiggins played 26 minutes in that matchup, he’s seemingly capped at 30 tonight.

While the Lakers didn’t play the best defense last season, Wiggins stayed under this line in three of the four games against the purple and gold last season, with markedly less usage in each game. Tasked with defending LeBron James on the majority of his possessions, Wiggins was less of a factor offensively.

Coach speak isn't always reliable, but I’ll take Kerr at his word, and assume 30 minutes of floor time for Wiggins. Based on that, I have the Kansas product projected at 20 PRA on opening night.

Pick: Andrew Wiggins Under 23.5 PRA (-105). Playable down to 22.5 PRA.

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