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PropBetGuy’s NBA Finals Player Prop: Bet Marcus Smart in Warriors vs. Celtics Game 6

PropBetGuy’s NBA Finals Player Prop: Bet Marcus Smart in Warriors vs. Celtics Game 6 article feature image
Credit:

Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Marcus Smart #36 of the Boston Celtics.

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Marcus Smart, Points + Rebounds + Assists

Prop Over 25.5 PRA
Matchup Warriors vs. Celtics Game 6
Time 9 p.m. ET
Books Available DraftKings

After the Warriors prevailed at home in Game 5 to take a 3-2 series lead, the Celtics look to even the score in Boston. Elimination games are nothing new for the Eastern Conference champions, as the Celtics have already won three contests with their backs against the wall in these playoffs.

When NBA teams are in desperation mode, they tend to lean on their emotional leaders, which is exactly what I’m looking at from a player prop perspective.

Marcus Smart is averaging 28.5 PRA per 40 minutes this series, and 28.8 PRA per 40 minutes in these playoffs. In the Celtics’ three elimination games, the Defensive Player of the Year has shown out on offense as well, notching 33, 28 and 38 PRA.

With his primary defender typically being Stephen Curry, Smart has been relied on more to attack in this series. He’s incurred an increase in Usage Rate (21.9% vs. 20.5%) and front court touches (36 vs. 33 per 36 minutes) relative to his numbers in the rest of the playoffs.

With Al Horford’s offensive game neutralized since his Game 1 outburst, and Derrick White’s inconsistencies, Smart has emerged as the true No. 3 option behind Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

In Game 6, I expect big production from Smart, with his minutes once again reaching the 40s. I have the Oklahoma State product at 28 PRA and would go up to over 26.5 PRA, or take the over at 15.5 points.

Pick: Over 25.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110) — Playable up to over 26.5 PRA

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