Saturday Night College Football Best Bets: Picks for Colorado State vs San Diego State, Hawaii vs Air Force & More
James Gilbert/Getty Images. Pictured: Georgia quarterback Carson Beck.
It’s time to cap off another stacked college football Saturday — hopefully with three winners.
Our staff has found three best bets they love for the night slate, including picks for Ole Miss vs. Georgia, San Diego State vs. Colorado State and Air Force vs. Hawaii.
Read on for a full breakdown of their picks below.
Saturday Night College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday night's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 7 p.m. | ||
| 7 p.m. | ||
| 11 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Ole Miss vs. Georgia
Georgia’s usually known for its elite defense. But this year, it’s the offense that’s shining.
The Bulldogs have snuck up to seventh nationally in EPA per play and 10th in Success Rate. Quarterback Carson Beck is eighth nationally among qualified FBS passers in total EPA after recording four 300-yard games over the past six weeks, with a 13:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio to boot.
Although superstar tight end Brock Bowers is hurt, Ladd McConkey has become the Dawgs’ big-play guy, averaging over 17 yards per reception with Bowers sidelined.
Those two should exploit a relatively weak Ole Miss secondary, which ranks 69th in Passing Explosiveness Allowed.
I also love this matchup for Beck. Under first-year defensive coordinator Paul Golding, the Rebels run a lot of Cover 3 and Cover 4. Among qualified FBS passers facing those looks, Beck has the second-most passing yards (1,525) and fifth-best EPA (46.3).
But while Georgia’s offense has thrived, the defense has taken a step back.
The biggest issue is tackling. The Bulldogs rank 10th among SEC defenses in broken plus missed tackle rate (11.8%) and seventh in EPA per Rush allowed.
Enter Ole Miss running back Quinshon Judkins, one of the nation’s most elusive and tough rushers. Among qualified backs, he’s 10th nationally in missed tackles forced and 15th in yards after contact. No SEC running back with at least 75 carries has a higher BT+MT% than Judkins (28.8%).
Who can stop that? Certainly not an uncharacteristically leaky Dawgs' front seven.
If Judkins establishes the rush, that’ll set up the ever-dangerous Lane Kiffin play-action passing attack. Among qualified FBS passers, Dart has the second-most play-action passing yards (1,403) and sixth-most big-time throws (10).
Put it all together, and we should see fireworks on Saturday afternoon in Athens. Our own Collin Wilson projects this total around 67, giving us plenty of value on Over 58.
Pick: Over 58
San Diego State vs. Colorado State
This is the time of year when teams are backed into a corner from a bowl eligibility standpoint. The Rams need to win out to hit that magical number of six.
The program’s bowl drought sits at five seasons, and it hasn’t won a postseason game since 2013. That means the reward of a minor bowl game still means something to this team.
On the field, the Rams have a much higher ceiling on Saturday than San Diego State.
For starters, they have a quarterback who can push the ball downfield and make big plays happen. Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi is still a freshman and prone to freshman mistakes. The Rams are 107th in interception rate, and BFN has given games away this season.
But SDSU is uncharacteristically weak on defense this season, ranking 128th in Success Rate allowed after a multi-year run of elite defenses.
And if the Aztecs fail to turn Colorado State over, their offense is ill-equipped to keep pace in a shootout.
Jalen Mayden has been mediocre at best, and as a whole, they’ve been unable to pop big plays. The Aztecs are 132nd in Explosiveness this season.
The Rams aren’t world-beaters defensively, but they have limited big plays and can get after the quarterback. That should lead to a sub-20-point performance from San Diego State.
The Rams have been close in recent weeks, dropping a heartbreaker at the buzzer to UNLV, playing Air Force close for a half and losing by nine to Wyoming.
They’re on the cusp of putting it all together, and tin cans like SDSU, Nevada and Hawaii await them. This is where their late-season run starts.
I’ll play them up to -6.
Pick: Colorado State -3.5 (Play to -6)
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Air Force vs. Hawaii
By John Feltman
This is a terrific spot for the Air Force Falcons heading to the Island to take on Hawaii.
The Bows may have picked up a victory last week, but the Falcons are much better than the Wolf Pack.
What this matchup comes down to is that the Falcons should be able to dominate the time of possession. I expect them to keep the chains moving against a Hawaii defense that ranks 90th in Rush Success Rate allowed.
The Bows are also bottom-15 in both Finishing Drives and Quality Drives allowed, which tells me that the Falcons can put multiple touchdowns on the scoreboard.
At times, Hawaii quarterback Brayden Schager has been explosive through the air for the Bows, but his turnover-worthy throws are a huge cause for concern.
The Falcons were completely embarrassed last week, and I expect a much more focused defensive effort this time out.
I don’t have much concern about the travel or motivation, given the Falcons are a service academy team. Combine all of the aforementioned factors — plus the Bows having only one week to prepare for this triple-option offense — and this could easily be a trucking for Air Force.
There are way too many advantages for the Falcons on both sides of the ball, and the early-week market steam makes me love this play even more.
Oh, and it’s Veterans Day weekend. It’d be foolish to fade any of the service academies this week.
Pick: Air Force -19
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