College Football Best Bets: Top Saturday Afternoon Picks for Washington State vs Cal, Tennessee vs Missouri
Eakin Howard/Getty Images. Pictured: The Tennessee Volunteers.
This week's college football action rolls on, as we turn our attention to Saturday's afternoon games.
Our staff hand-picked five bets for Saturday afternoon, including picks for Tennessee vs. Missouri, Oklahoma State vs. UCF, Washington State vs. Cal, UAB vs. Navy and New Mexico State vs. Western Kentucky.
So, whether you're looking to bet an SEC showdown or take the team total over for one of the hottest teams in college football we have you covered.
Check out all five of our best bets for Saturday afternoon's college football games below — and be sure to check out our top picks for Saturday's noon and night slates as well.
Saturday Afternoon College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday afternoon's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 3:30 p.m. | ||
| 3:30 p.m. | ||
| 3:30 p.m. | ||
| 3:30 p.m. | ||
| 4 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tennessee vs. Missouri
There may not be a better situational spot on the board than Tennessee traveling to Columbia to face Missouri.
The Tigers gave a maximum effort against the two-time defending national champions, covering the spread against Georgia while losing their most valuable weapon to injury.
Head coach Eli Drinkwitz is “concerned” over the health of slot wide receiver Luther Burden III, who leads the nation in PFF grading thanks to a mark of 3.6 yards per route run.
Burden and Oklahoma transfer wideout Theo Wease represent more than 65% of targets on the team, leaving quarterback Brady Cook with unfamiliar weapons against the Tennessee secondary.
While the Tigers lick their wounds from battle, the Volunteers have racked up SEC victory after SEC victory thanks to an elite rushing attack and a progressing Joe Milton.
The Missouri defense has been leaky through SEC play, slipping outside the top 100 in Expected Points Allowed and Defensive Finishing Drives.
Tennessee ranks 16th in pressures allowed, a factor that should keep Milton in a clean pocket against a Missouri secondary that's 78th in coverage.
Add Tennessee to your Week 11 card, as it should take advantage of a Missouri team that depleted all resources at Georgia in Week 10.
Pick: Tennessee -2 (Play to -3)
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New Mexico State vs. Western Kentucky
All this New Mexico State team does is exceed expectations. It entered the season with a win total of 5.5, and only Florida International had worse odds of winning the Conference USA title among the seven eligible teams.
Now, the Aggies are 7-3, and a win on Saturday against Western Kentucky will punch their ticket to the conference championship game.
New Mexico State is 8-2 against the spread this season — the sixth-most profitable team to back in the country.
Quarterback Diego Pavia is the type of player you want to invest your money in because you know he will do everything he can on every snap to make a play.
Pavia has 17 passing touchdowns and averages over 200 yards through the air. He’s also lethal with his legs, averaging 65.9 yards on the ground with five rushing touchdowns.
The Aggies have three good running backs in Monte Watkins, Star Thomas and Jamoni Jones.
Watkins is the best of the bunch, averaging a ridiculous 11.5 yards per carry. He’s averaging two yards more than any back in the country with at least 20 carries. He has 46 carries this year, and 20 of them have gone for at least 10 yards.
I know Jerry Kill reads Action Network. So, Jerry, please give Watkins the ball more — especially against this Western Kentucky defense that’s atrocious against the run.
The Hilltoppers rank 128th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate. They have allowed 739 rushing yards in the last three games.
The electric Western Kentucky offense we’ve seen in the last few years looks broken. It’s just 93rd in Offensive Success Rate.
The Tops have still been explosive at times, but preventing big plays is the strength of this Aggies defense. They rank 37th at preventing passing explosives. Safeties Myles Rowser and J.J. Dervil are the team’s best tacklers and keep everything in front of them.
This is a great matchup for New Mexico State, which continues to smash expectations, facing a Western Kentucky team that has been a big disappointment.
If you have not watched Pavia play, you’re in for a treat. He just always finds a way to make a big play, and you’re not really sure how.
Back the Aggies to cover another spread here, and don’t be surprised if they pull off the upset and punch their ticket to the conference title game.
Pick: New Mexico State +4.5 (Play to +3.5)
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UAB vs. Navy
There may not be a larger contrast in offensive philosophy versus defensive efficiency on the board when UAB travels to Navy in Week 11.
As always with a service academy, Navy is a heavy rush offense with 75% of offensive snaps coming on the ground. The Blazers have put together a resume of rush defense failures, ranking dead last in Success Rate and 131st in Defensive Stuff Rate.
Not only should Navy average more than five yards for every carry, but UAB has also been one of the worst defenses in terms of limiting scoring chances. The Blazers are 132nd in Defensive Quality Drives, a pathway to easy scores for opponents. Teams that cross the Blazers' 40-yard line are averaging 4.6 points per trip.
Those same advantages exist in a different path when UAB attempts to pass against the Navy secondary. The Blazers are top-20 in Passing Success Rate, generating a top-15 rank with explosives in passing down attempts. Meanwhile, Navy is dead last nationally on defense in stopping the explosive play in passing downs.
While the Midshipmen are not nearly as bad in efficiency, the Quality and Finishing Drives ranks on defense sit outside the top 100.
Look for each offense to generate chunk plays and post touchdowns, getting over the biggest key total in college football.
Pick: Over 54.5 (Play to 55)
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Oklahoma State vs. UCF
Year 1 of the Big 12 experience hasn’t exactly been seamless for UCF. The Knights are 1-5 in conference play, with their only win coming over fellow Big 12 newcomer Cincinnati.
While injuries to quarterback John Rhys Plumlee have hindered the UCF offense at times throughout the season, the defense has been downright bad on a week-to-week basis.
In six conference games, the Knights are allowing 38.2 points per game, the worst in the Big 12. The 2-7 Bearcats were the only team to score fewer than 31 points against UCF.
The Knights rank 125th and 124th in Rush Success Allowed and Line Yards, respectively. And in case you haven’t heard, Oklahoma State kind of has a good running back.
Ollie Gordon II has quickly splashed his way into the Heisman discussion since the Cowboys started Big 12 play. The sophomore running back leads the nation in rushing with 136.1 yards per game and has scored eight total touchdowns in his last three games.
Gordon’s made a living ripping defenses for explosive plays. His 17 rushes of at least 20 yards are five more than any other player in the country, which also happens to be something UCF struggles with.
The Knights have allowed 22 rushing plays of at least 20 yards. Only North Texas and Buffalo have allowed more.
This game could of course be an emotional letdown for the Cowboys stemming off the big Bedlam win last week, but I’m concerned more with that affecting Oklahoma State’s defense than its offense.
The Cowboys offense has cleared this number in three of its last four games, and UCF has a worse defense than any of the teams it’s played in that stretch.
Oklahoma State’s defense isn’t great either, and both of these teams operate at top-30 pace on offense, so this will likely be a back-and-forth shootout.
I’m just more confident backing the hot-handed Cowboys than an inconsistent UCF side that’s struggled in its transition to Power 5 football.
Pick: Oklahoma State TT Over 33.5 (Play to 34)
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Washington State vs. Cal
To say the Cal defense has played poorly since it entered Pac-12 play would be putting it lightly. On four separate occasions, it's given up 50 or more points. The only team it's held under 30 points thus far is Arizona State.
What has gone horribly wrong for the Golden Bears is that they have one of the worst secondaries in college football. They rank 131st in Passing Success Rate Allowed and EPA/Pass Allowed.
Oregon quarterback Bo Nix just threw for 386 yards and four touchdowns against them last week, and during conference play, Cal has allowed opposing quarterbacks to average 8.6 yards per attempt.
So, this is a perfect opportunity for Washington State's Cam Ward to have a huge day.
One thing is for sure, though — Washington State is going to throw the ball no matter what. Wards ranks top five in passes attempted this season, as the Cougars throw the ball on 62.8% of offensive plays. He'll have plenty of chances to light up one of the worst secondaries in the country.
On the other side, Cal has an excellent rushing attack that can give Washington State a lot of problems in this game.
The Golden Bears rank top-30 in Rushing Success Rate an EPA/Rush, and it starts up front. They're dominating the line of scrimmage, ranking fourth in Offensive Line Yards and seventh in Stuff Rate Allowed.
Lead back Jaydn Ott has been thriving in this system, averaging 6.8 yards per carry during conference play and has already forced 24 missed tackles.
That should work well against a Washington State defense that can't tackle (91st in PFF tackling grade) and can't stop the run (116th in EPA/Rush Allowed).
Both of these offenses are playing at a really fast pace, ranking inside the top 35 in seconds per play. So, with major advantages for both offenses and a fast pace, I think we'll see a high-scoring affair in Berkeley.
Pick: Over 59.5 (Play to 62.5)
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