Bears vs. Packers Odds & Betting Predictions - October 11, 2026
Bears at Packers
5:00 pm • FOXBears at Packers Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bears 7-2 | +3 | -1.5-114 | o46.5-115 | -120 |
 Packers 6-3 | u49.5 | +1.5-105 | u46.5-106 | +102 |
Lambeau FieldGreen Bay
Bears vs. Packers Expert Picks
YBK Picks.com
Last 30d: 47-34-4 (+26.0u)
GB +1.5-105
1.9u
Vegas Refund
Last 30d: 29-43-1 (-18.4u)
GB +1.5-110
1u
Stuck 🚨
Last 30d: 50-61-1 (-0.4u)
GB +3-125
0.4u
Some -120s out there
Mike McNamara
Last 30d: 76-73-1 (+4.0u)
CHI -117
0.4u
Sean Zerillo
Last 30d: 145-147-4 (-0.2u)
Under 47.5-115
0.25u
Kody Malstrom
Last 30d: 49-54-2 (-6.1u)
Over 45-116
0.58u
Sean Koerner🔮
Last 30d: 68-77-1 (+5.4u)
M.Lloyd 4+ Receptions Yes+336
0.1u
🪜
M.Lloyd o2.5 Recs+125
0.4u
Chris Brooks is out, and we saw Lloyd take over most of his passing-down work last week. After Brooks left, Lloyd ran a route on 50% of Love’s dropbacks and went 5/36/0 receiving, so I like that role carrying over.
The other thing I like is that Lloyd has seen a high rate of designed targets/screens. Those are much stickier week to week and obviously much easier to complete than normal RB targets. He hasn’t done much with them after the catch, which is why I’d rather attack receptions than yards.
Green Bay is also a home dog, so there’s a real chance we get a trailing/hurry-up script where Lloyd’s role becomes even more valuable. And these RB catches can come in bunches. In a 2-minute drill, Love could easily hit the checkdown on back-to-back plays if Chicago is sitting off.
I have Lloyd closer to 3.0 catches with around a 57% chance to clear 2.5, so getting +125 is attractive.
I’m laddering this too because the upside gets pretty interesting if Green Bay is chasing points:
4+ receptions +336 (proj. +185)
5+ receptions +790 (proj. +460)
That feels like the sweet spot. The value drops off quite a bit at 6+, where I have him closer to +1200.
M.Lloyd 5+ Receptions Yes+790
0.05u
🪜
Anthony Dabbundo
Last 30d: 45-59-0 (-8.7u)
GB o22.5-110
1.5u
Ringer Wise Guys Wise Wager
Doug Ziefel
Last 30d: 402-348-10 (+36.5u)
J.Love u1.5 Pass TDs-108
0.54u
M.Lloyd o9.5 Longest Rush+105
0.5u
T.Kraft u50.5 Rec Yds-110
0.55u
M.Lloyd u2.5 Recs-115
0.5u
J.Love u7.5 Longest Rush-102
0.5u
Jeremiah Rose
Last 30d: 55-49-1 (+6.7u)
GB +105
0.42u
Ryan Minion
Last 30d: 257-288-8 (-21.3u)
D.Swift 2+ TDs Yes+340
$1.00
D.Swift o106.5 Rush + Rec Yds-115
$1.15
Collin Whitchurch
Last 30d: 142-195-4 (+6.9u)
T.Bagent o10.5 Rush Yds-115
0.5u
M.Lloyd o2.5 Recs+124
0.5u
Sandy Plashkes
Last 30d: 108-123-4 (+2.6u)
M.Golden 70+ Receiving Yards Yes+166
0.83u
M.Golden o55.5 Rec Yds-112
1u
Kyle Murray
Last 30d: 118-130-5 (+3.1u)
M.Lloyd 4+ Receptions Yes+260
0.75u
M.Lloyd 5+ Receptions Yes+575
0.35u
M.Lloyd 6+ Receptions Yes+1400
0.15u
M.Lloyd o2.5 Recs+130
1u
Chris Gimino
Last 30d: 9-11-0 (-1.7u)
T.Bagent o0.5 Int+100
1u
Austin Pendergrass
Last 30d: 84-65-0 (+6.4u)
R.Johnson o17.5 Rush Yds-120
0.5u
Brandon Kravitz
Last 30d: 63-76-1 (-7.3u)
GB +2.5-110
2u
Wanted the 3 but the # is on the move. Packers home dog vs overvalued fav.
RoyalsProps
Last 30d: 48-60-7 (-19.3u)
C.Loveland o35.5 Rec Yds-114
1.14u
Frank Ammirante
Last 30d: 100-90-0 (-2.4u)
Over 46.5-112
1.12u
K.Raymond u24.5 Rec Yds+105
1u
C.Loveland o34.5 Rec Yds-130
1.3u
Player Prop Savant
Last 30d: 78-82-0 (-13.8u)
Z.Franklin o7.5 Tackles + Ast-115
1u
Nick Giffen
Last 30d: 60-206-0 (+6.8u)
T.Bagent o10.5 Rush Yds-112
1u
Bagent hasn't done much with his legs since his rookie year where he made four starts, because last week was his first start since then.
In his five career starts he's cleared this number three times, including performances of 24 and 70 yards. Clearly he's not afraid to run.
Now he faces a Green Bay defense that has actually done a good job at generating pressure, ranking inside the top-10 in both raw pressure rate, and pressure rate over expected. That could force him to run a bit more than he did against the Jets, who generate pressure at one of the lowest rates in the NFL where he had just one scramble for four yards and three kneel downs.
In fact, the Packers have allowed QBs to rush for 19.5 yards per game compared to 13.9 yards expected by my model, so they definitely are a team QBs can run on.
If we normalize Bagent's career rushing yardage to the actual percentage of snaps he's played, he's run for around 17.9 yards per game. My model is hedging a bit and giving him an average projection of 17.3 yards with a median of 14. But that means it has him clearing 10.5 almost 60% of the time.
Topper
Last 30d: 89-91-1 (-36.2u)
GB +106
1.06u
Outdoor Short Divisional Underdogs
Overall: 285-323-3,47% (ROI:15%)
Season:5-1-0,83% (ROI:112%)
#TSA
Under 47.5-118
0.85u
Open Air Unders: Divisional Drift
Overall: 426-323-11,57% (ROI:10%)
Season:2-5-0,29% (ROI:-45%)
Open Air Unders: Divisional Drift - copy
Overall: 306-224-6,58% (ROI:12%)
Season:2-3-0,40% (ROI:-23%)
High Wind Unders
Overall: 667-509-10,57% (ROI:10%)
Season:5-4-0,56% (ROI:7%)
#TSA
Action Pod NFL Picks
Last 30d: 49-137-1 (-18.2u)
GB +2-110
0.91u
Mjaybrod
Last 30d: 59-78-1 (-21.3u)
Over 44.5-124
1u
Points mf
Adam Kaufman
Last 30d: 357-321-18 (-9.6u)
CHI -132 (1H)
0.25u
CHI -130 (1Q)
0.5u
GB +1.5 (2Q)-138
0.18u
CHI -115 (3Q)
0.25u
CHI -120 (4Q)
0.25u
Under 9.5 (1Q)-115
0.22u
Under 23.5 (1H)-117
0.21u
Under 13.5 (4Q)-128
0.2u
CHI o10.5 (1H)-113
0.25u
CHI -2.5-114
1u
GB u22.5-125
0.25u
GB u21.5-114
0.25u
CHI -120 (2H)
0.5u
CHI -115 (3Q)
0.25u
Alex Hinton
Last 30d: 110-126-1 (+5.7u)
CHI -2.5-114
1u
M.Lloyd u8.5 Rush Att-105
0.5u
Nick Griffith
Last 30d: 49-59-0 (-7.6u)
GB +105
1.05u
Wags Wins
Last 30d: 279-268-2 (-12.7u)
Under 47.5-118
1u
Babs .
Last 30d: 29-23-1 (+3.4u)
R.Johnson o17.5 Rush Yds-120
1.33u
Charlie DiSturco
Last 30d: 122-259-2 (-9.1u)
C.Watson o60.5 Rec Yds-110
0.5u
TAN Pod Touchdown Show
Last 30d: 29-112-3 (-8.2u)
L.Burden Anytime TD Scorer Yes+245
0.41u
T.Kraft Anytime TD Scorer Yes+225
0.44u
Bears vs. Packers Previews & Analysis
Bears vs. Packers Props
Prop Projections
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Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Bears vs. Packers Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Packers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Packers are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Packers are 3-2 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Packers' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Packers' 4 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
Over/Under History
Last 5 Matchups
Bears vs. Packers Injury Updates
Bears Injuries
- Cole KmetTE
Kmet is out with knee
Out
- Kyle MonangaiRB
Monangai is out with unknown
Out
Packers Injuries
- Skyy MooreWR
Moore is out with ankle
Out
- Luke MusgraveTE
Musgrave is out with neck
Out
- Jayden ReedWR
Reed is out with neck
Out
- Josh WhyleTE
Whyle is out with concussion
Out
- Chris BrooksRB
Brooks is out with ankle
Out
- MarShawn LloydRB
Lloyd is out with knee
Out
Team Stats
Bears vs. Packers Odds Comparison
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Bears at Packers Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
|---|---|---|
Bears 7-2 | N/A | N/A |
Packers 6-3 | N/A | N/A |