Colts vs. Chiefs Odds & Betting Predictions - November 23, 2025

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I’m expecting IND to throw the ball at a higher rate for a few reasons. • IND is a +3.5 road underdog (T-Largest spread of the season). They’ve only been underdogs of 3+ points one other time this season (+3.5 vs Rams) and JT had 5 catches that game • KC ranks 1st in Pass Rate Over Expectation & coming off their highest PROE of the season (19.4%) • IND ranks 4th in PROE since Week 7. With both teams expected to throw the ball at a high rate + having above avg run defenses, this should lead to a faster pace and more plays ran. Spags and the KC defense have done a great job historically at limiting star RBs like Jonathan Taylor especially in must win games. This is similar to a playoff game for KC as a loss would really hurt their playoff chances. Last year in the Super Bowl they limited Saquon to 2.3 YPC but he was more involved in the pass game (6 catches). Derrick Henry saw more passing game involvement (than avg) earlier this season vs KC (2 catches/3 targets). KC has been a great matchup for RB receptions too. They rank 11th worst in RB Receiving DVOA. KC has allowed the 3rd highest completion% this season (70.6%) and over the L4 games its even higher (76.7% - worst in NFL). JT has caught 30 of his 32 targets (2 drops). And has 2+ catches in every game this season (3+ in 7/10) Danny Dimes faced this Spags defense one time back in 2021 & targetted his RB 6 times (5 catches).

This is the biggest game on the schedule, with the 5–5 Chiefs surprisingly fighting for their playoff lives. I really wanted to back the Chiefs but have a hard time past -3. it's hard not to trust the Chiefs at home in such a big spot, especially since the defense is far better at home. The Colts haven't exactly been great against real opponents this season - touchdown losses to the Rams and Steelers, plus a fluky one-point win over the Broncos - but the usually reliable Patrick Mahomes trends haven't held up this season like usual. Mahomes is also 0–4 ATS in his career against opponents coming out of a bye week, and that's especially troubling considering the extra time Indy DC Lou Anarumo has had to get his defense ready for Mahomes since Anarumo has really messed with Mahomes' timing over the years in his time in Cincinnati. But there's another Anarumo pattern we can play: his teams are consistently bad against tight ends. His Bengals allowed the most fantasy points to TEs of any team last year, and this year's Colts are fifth-worst in that metric and by DVOA. Indy's corners are terrific and especially good against WR1s, so Mahomes will need to attack with old reliable, Travis Kelce. The Colts have really only faced two really good tight ends this year. They gave up 8/71 and a TD to Trey McBride and also saw rookie Oronde Gadsden Jr.'s breakout game at 7/164 and a score. Even as Kelce slows down late in his career, he's still producing. He's had at least 47 receiving yards in all but one game this season, so his line of 50.5 yards (-110, BetMGM) is flat out disrespectful. Take the over. Kelce has at least 6/60 in four of his last six games, so you can play that combo as a simple SGP at +192 (FanDuel). Add in a touchdown as well at +390. He's had 6/60/1 in three of his last six. This is pretty close a playoff game for the Chiefs, and Kelce has always been at his best in Kansas City's biggest games.

DK, no way the 3’s last long

As much as they screwed me last week from churning out my best NFL week to date by losing to Bo Nix…I’ve decided not to hold a grudge. My numbers spit out KC -4, early market reads indicate this line is going to close closer to 3.5, and matchup wise, I like Kansas City. Steve Spagnuolo will be copy and pasting (with a touch of his own spin) on what the Falcons did to Jones. 7 sacks, constant blitz, forcing multiple fumbles, and that was neutral site. This is at Arrowhead with the season on the line. Even though Indy has been great and they’re off the bye, KC is my first bet of the week - confidently.

Josh Downs over 4.5 1st Qtr Rec Yds (-112 at DK) The Colts have chosen to receive the kickoff 100% of the time they have won the coin toss, while the Chiefs have deferred 100% of the time. As a result, barring some coaching decision oddities, the Colts are almost guaranteed to start with the ball. That's been the case in 9 of 10 colts games this year, including 8 of the 9 games Downs has played. Downs has cleared 4.5 1st quarter receiving yards in 8 of 9 games as well, only failing to do so in the most recent game against the Falcons which may be lowering this line more than it should be. Downs has more than 55% of his total receiving yards on the season in the 1st quarter, and his full game line is 33.5, so clearly there's value here if we just applied that direct ratio. Yes, the Colts are expected to trail here more than they have all season, but 5 yards is just under 15% of his full game line. Also, the matchup is solid as the Chiefs allow the most targets per route run (TPRR) to slot receivers in the NFL, and allow the fifth highest catch rate on targets to the slot. Rather than facing outside corners Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, Downs will get Christian Roalnd-Wallace who allows the most TPRR of KC's top three corners. I love this line at 4.5, and am totally fine if you only have FanDuel's 5.5 line available to you. Downs has 10+ 1st Qtr receiving yards in 7 of 9 games, so a ladder here of 10+ is viable as well.

1.78% ev

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/JFONaGF3tYb

Has to be done

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