Packers vs. Buccaneers Odds & Betting Predictions - October 4, 2026

Bought 0.5 to get secondary key

I’m pumped for Jalon Daniels’ first start, and several years ago we probably would’ve gotten his rushing prop around 25.5. The market is way sharper these days with his number sitting in the mid-30s. The angle I like more is what that run-heavy approach could do to the overall game environment. Tampa Bay should have a chance to control time of possession, especially if Green Bay abandons the run again. That’s basically a double whammy for Anzalone: fewer overall defensive snaps, plus a Packers offense that has been brutal for LB tackle production so far. Rookie Josiah Trotter is also expected back, and he was a tackling machine through the first two games. His return should naturally eat into some of Anzalone’s upside. Trotter’s own tackle prop looks a bit high too, but he has a wider range of outcomes, so I’d rather make Anzalone the fade. I have him closer to 5.1 tackles with around a 60% chance to stay under 5.5.

Brandon’s playground pod Week 4

🤮 gotta do it

Kaleb Johnson longest rush under 9.5 yards (-110 at Bet365, -110 at Caesars) Johnson has 40 carries in his career and just two have gone for more than 9.5 yards. That's a rate of 5% while league average is 9.8% so far this year when there's at least 10 yards of room from the end zone. Now he gets a matchup with the stout Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense who has yet to allow an explosive run all year, despite missing key pieces of the defense at various points this season. In Week 1, SirVocea Dennis barely played and the Bucs allowed 3.85 yards per carry with four runs between 10 and 13 yards. But in the two games since his snaps have been ramping up more, they've allowed just 2.2 ypc with only one run of 10 or more yards. Yes, the absence of Ruben Bain Jr. will hurt, but Al-Quadin Muhammad is a capable replacement and with him in for Bain in Week 3, the Bucs allowed 2.9 ypc with just one run beyond 9.5 yards on 21 RB carries. Green Bay's offensive line has been brutal this year, and have not been opening up lanes for Johnson or Marshawn Lloyd, ranking second worst in adjusted yards before contact per FantasyPoints Data, while the Bucs rank second best in preventing yards before contact. I have Johnson staying below this north of 60% of the time so I'd play this down to around -135 to leave some wiggle room in case Green Bay runs more as favorites here.

Hometown Narrative! Just having some fun with this one.

Low wind low totals (No Thursdays) Overall: 458-325-11,58% (ROI:14%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%) #TSA

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