Jaguars vs. 49ers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 28, 2025

Profit boost play

Lenoir hasn’t cleared this number yet this season, and after doing some digging, it’s pretty clear why. He’s far less involved in run support: a tackle on 4.1% of run plays so far, compared to 9% last year. He’s been lined up in the box/slot only 15% of the time this year (about 80% last season), and he’s at 84% outside corner now. That outside role simply does not provide him with as many tackle chances on run plays, so I am not banking on meaningful positive regression while this usage holds. Accounting for the new role, I have him closer to 4.3 with around 58% to stay under 4.5. Getting plus money here is a nice bonus.

Brian Thomas Jr. over 7.5 1st Quarter receiving yards (-117 at DK) JAX likely to start with the ball JAX has won the coin toss 3 times this year, and in two of those game they chose to receive the kickoff SF has won the coin toss 3 times this year and chose to defer all three which is standard for Kyle Shanahan who hasn't chosen to receive the ball as far back as my coin toss data goes Has cleared this in 2 of 3 games this year, including in the the game JAX got the ball second, catching one of two targets for 9 yards. Now faces a SF defense that has allowed a higher catch percentage, and catch percentage over expectation (CPOE) than the other three teams the Jaguars have faced this year. We should also expect BTJ's catch rate to improve from the paltry 28% he's had so far, closer to the mid 60% rate he had last year while having a similar aDOT so far this year to his rookie season. The Jaguars have also reportedly made it a point to get BTJ plenty of looks in practice this week to build back that confidence after some ugly drops, which tends not to be a sticky statistic. His receiving yard total is around 57.5 to 58.5 yards across the market, so 7.5 yards represents just 12.9% of that for 25% of game time, of which the Jaguars should have even more than 25% of their total possession by likely starting with the ball. 24% of BTJ's targets have come in the first quarter so far this year, which would equate to around 14 yards if that was also the percentage of yards he accumulated. Only DK has this prop right now, but when other books start to post it, I'd play it up to 9.5 at -110 or 10.5 at even money or better

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#SundaySixPack

Spicy lemon pepper wings

Grabbed the hook with all of the SF injury uncertainty

Here’s to hoping Purdy gives it a go 🤞

WEEK 4 LOOKAHEAD : It feels like good vibes in Jacksonville, but that could shift if the Jaguars drop to 1-2 with a loss to the Texans, especially if we start to see more cracks between Liam Coen, Trevor Lawrence, and Brian Thomas Jr., with Lawrence performing so erratically. Jacksonville's offensive line has outperformed expectations but has a much tougher test against that Houston defensive front, and that will continue with Nick Bosa and rookie Mykel Williams waiting next week in San Francisco. The 49ers could be 3-0 by then — and more importantly, it looks like they should have Brock Purdy back in the field. Purdy is practicing and could even play in Week 3, so it would be a surprise to see him sit Week 4 at this point, and I don't think this line has readjusted. I make this San Francisco -5 even with Mac Jones in the lineup, so it jumps to over a touchdown with Purdy. Miss me with your Mac Jones is just as good as Purdy is take. Jones won last week but currently ranks 20th or worse among starting QBs in ADOT and CPOE and 31st in pressure-to-sack rate. Give Purdy some credit for his growth — he doesn't take many sacks and has an ability to create plays that Jones has never had. It's a gift getting this line right at -3, the key number. Don't wait around and miss it next week.

Week 4 Lookahead @wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/mwsC0lYENWb