Jets vs. Bengals Odds & Betting Predictions - October 26, 2025

There is a value opportunity on Samaje Perine's receptions prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 1.13 receptions, while sportsbooks imply 1.68. The model believes there is a 68% chance he records fewer than 1.5 receptions, so there is some value on the under at -115. (This play is good down to at least -142.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

Yer boy yer - Liv is a sweet heart

Put 2 units on the Jets earlier in the week, feeling queasy about it with all their injuries so I’m buying back a unit with the hopes of that sweet sweet middle if the final lands on 6. Official play is still: Jets +6.5 (-110)

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#Tailing @nick_giffen

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Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Important disclaimer regarding 0.5u sizing (plus a deeper dive behind my process for this and other props): I get asked about this every week despite addressing it on Discord, Twitter, and in previous pick notes. The reason I use 0.5u as a baseline has nothing to do with confidence. It’s about expanding the threshold for what qualifies as an “official play.” Instead of posting 4 full-unit plays, I can post 8 half-unit plays. That gives followers more chances to get similar odds since lines often move quickly after I post. For lower-limit markets like tackles, books also dictate my actual stake since I can’t always get full exposure. Every play I post is one I’m confident in. The 0.5u label simply reflects a structural change, not uncertainty. My real confidence is reflected in the projected hit rate versus the implied odds, and it’s up to you to decide how much value is still there at current prices. Now for this game: there are hardly any Jets props up since we don’t know who’s starting at QB and both Breece Hall and Mason Taylor are questionable. The Bengals are the team I want to attack, and we have a unique setup with a pass-heavy team favored by 6 points and projected to play with the lead at a +32% higher rate than usual. That should mean less passing volume overall. Chase Brown props were my first look since he should see more carries, but the market adjusted correctly (even with Samaje Perine’s role expanding). Joe Flacco unders on attempts, yards, and completions were also interesting, but those numbers aren’t showing much value. However, that led me to Tee Higgins’ under 4.5 receptions as the best angle. Flacco should still pepper Ja’Marr Chase with underneath targets, especially with Sauce Gardner out, making it even easier to funnel looks his way. That doesn’t mean Higgins won’t have his moments (he’s still one of the best WR2s in the league) but he tends to see most of his targets downfield, where catch rates are naturally lower. That’s why I’m avoiding his yardage prop but targeting receptions. In Flacco’s two starts, he completed 29 and 31 passes, and Tee finished with 5 and 6 receptions in those high-volume games. This week Flacco’s line is 23.5 completions, about 6.5 fewer on average, so there is simply less catch volume to distribute. With Cincinnati likely controlling script and taking fewer deep shots, Higgins is the most likely to feel that reduction, which pushes him under 4.5 more often than not. I’m projecting Higgins at 4.1 receptions with roughly a 60% chance to stay under 4.5.

Did play this earlier in the week per pod. Injury report is concerning though. Still can’t get to number

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How is this line almost a touchdown for the Bengals? We're positive this team is good again after one nice Thursday night showing? I have the Jets only four spots behind Cincinnati in my power ratings and make this closer to -3, which would translate to about a +130 moneyline. That means the +260 Jets ML is worth a nibble.

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My projection makes the Bengals 5-point favs so a full point and a half of value here and once that Tyrod Taylor news drops I would imagine that 6.5 will vanish into thin air never to be seen again. Bengals are not real.

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