Jets vs. Dolphins Odds & Betting Predictions - September 29, 2025

Boyd / FanDuel

Scary fade but projecting this closer to 5

Don’t fuck me sideways again

Better than Caleb

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Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Sherwood is a tackling machine, and if anyone deserves a 9.5 prop, it’s him. He has gone 10+ in two straight. This is not a fade of Sherwood the player, it is a fade of tackle opportunities. The Jets have faced a league-high 32.3 rush attempts per game. He is involved on roughly 17% of run plays, so any time opponents push 30+ rushes he is going to be projected for 9.5+ in my model. Tonight should look different. The Jets offense is set up for more time of possession after averaging only 28 minutes so far. With Justin Fields back they can keep it close, lean on the run, and move the chains at a higher rate than the first three games. That means fewer defensive snaps for Sherwood. I also have Miami around 25–26 rushing attempts, which dings his expectation by about 1–1.5 tackles. I’m projecting Sherwood at 8.7, with 8–9 as the most likely outcomes. My fair price is closer to -165 for under 9.5. Not for the faint of heart, since he mixes in on a tackle nearly every drive, but 9.5 gives us added wiggle room.

Dolphins defense has been awful so far this year. Fields has hit this in both games he’s played, with runs of 15 and 27 in those games as his longest rushes. Dolphins have played 3 running QBs so far and all three have had a 10+ run in each with 11, 13, and 17 for each QB for their longest rush

Luck Rankings Strong Luck Under Im a bit scared of MIA having a functional pass offense at home vs a Jets D that ranks 30th in def pass DVOA, so a small nibble MIA since start of last year in full Tua games at home: 29 ppg (27 in 1 game this year) and 27.0 expected (24.1 this year vs NE) But I'll trust the Luck Rankings strong Luck Under which is 47-27-1 to the under

POTD: I said I was banning the Jets after their disaster game against Buffalo, but I can’t stay away here. If they don’t cover tonight, they’ll officially be the first team to earn a permanent spot on my 2025 banned list. Despite everything, I still have the Jets rated one spot higher than the Dolphins, even after New York started Tyrod Taylor at QB1 last week. Justin Fields returns tonight after clearing concussion protocol, and I think New York’s offense can finally get something going. PFF has the Dolphins graded as the worst team in the NFL, thanks largely to a brutal 47.1 defensive grade, the lowest in the league by a wide margin. Fields isn’t exactly a polished passer as his real weapon is his legs, but he won’t need to be against this secondary. Miami ranks 31st in both passing DVOA and coverage grade. They let the Jets hang 32 points on them in last year’s season finale, and if Fields can’t throw effectively against this defense, then we’ve got bigger problems. More importantly, the Jets bread-and-butter rushing attack should feast. The Dolphins are just 24th in rush DVOA and own the 5th worst defensive rush grade. Yes, Miami��s offense looked sharp against Buffalo, but that was against an injury ravaged Bills defense. They still sit just 22nd in passing DVOA, which lines up with the one area where the Jets defense can be vulnerable. The Dolphins have been more dangerous on the ground, but that plays right into New York’s strength: a run defense ranked 8th in the league. Let’s also not overrate Miami’s home field advantage. Hard Rock’s biggest edge is the brutal sideline sun during day games, where the visitor’s bench can be over 10 degrees hotter. At night, that advantage disappears. I give the Dolphins just a single point for home field advantage, which makes this line closer to Dolphins -0.9. Our model agrees, projecting a fair spread of 1.36, over a point lower than the market. It won’t be pretty, but I’m taking Jets +2.5.

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Have this at 41.1 due to 13 mph wind speeds and two underwhelming offenses.

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