Raiders vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Predictions - October 11, 2026

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The Raiders have allowed just a 58.7% pass completion rate this year, and while that's unsustainable, what is sustainable is the fact that they allow the second-longest average depth of target against defensively. That means more long passes which are less likely to be completed, and when they are completed they go for more yards, shortening the number of completions Maye would need to move the ball down the field. Las Vegas has generated fantastic pressure on the QB this year, ranking inside the top-10 in raw and relative to expectation, with some sites giving them a pressure rate as high as second-most in the NFL. Either way, Drake Maye should be under duress quite a bit. Maye's average depth of target increases by roughtly three yards since the start of last year and his completion percentage drops by more than 20 percentage points. More pressure also means more scrambles and/or sacks, eliminating some extra plays that would ordinarily be pass attempts. The Raiders have allowed the fifth-fewest targets to RBs despite a 3-1 record and a generally positive game script, showing how well they are doing at eliminating short passes thanks to the pressure as well as an above average rate of man marking, forcing RBs to stay in and block more or be marked out of the play, thus forcing passes downfield. One other interesting point from the Luck Rankings Dashboard. Maye's receivers have dropped just two passes this year, compared to four expected. An extra drop would hurt the completions as well. I have Maye projected for less than the 30 pass attempts the market has him at, and a slightly lower completion percentage than the 65% the market implies as well. I have about a full completion under the 19.5 projected.

Sell high with Raiders

4.5

@gneiffer07 https://youtu.be/D-VSFIRKqec?is=hMOaINyXZnMG7eG3

@EvanHAbrams https://www.youtube.com/live/_2qcnw1iubI?is=6NkNi3QWzF0NgWwS