Steelers vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Predictions - September 20, 2026

Was waiting for Pittman to officially be ruled out, and now that he has, this feels like a great spot for a Roman Wilson breakout game. He only went 3/26/0 in Week 1, but he was really close to hitting on a couple much bigger plays. Pittsburgh also never had to push that hard against Atlanta, while I expect them to throw more here. Christian Gonzalez should spend plenty of time on DK Metcalf, and Carlton Davis is questionable with a neck injury, so Wilson could end up with a pretty favorable setup. This just feels like an excellent buy-low spot. Wilson should see more playing time, Rodgers seems to trust him, and he’s willing to push the ball downfield to him. That’s important because Wilson doesn’t need huge volume to clear this due to big play upside. It may rain during the game, but lighter winds, which should still make it possible for 1-2 big plays. I have him closer to 37.5 receiving yards with around a 60% chance to clear 30.5, and I think this is a good spot to attack some alt overs as well.

Have to move fast on this one. This info from the Steelers beat hasn't been priced into the line yet. Per up and coming Steelers insider Nick Farabaugh, it doesn't look good for Michael Pittman Jr.'s status in New England on Sunday. That means WR Germie Bernard will likely get the most extended game action of his Steelers career.

Everyone saw how ugly Pittsburgh looked last week, and my numbers say this line should be -3.5. The truth is both of these offenses are rough right now. The Patriots' offensive weapons are in the hospital. A.J. Brown is a huge miss, and what looked like a top-10 WR corps before the season is now bottom-10 until proven otherwise. New England probably won't run the ball well on Pittsburgh, so it's on Drake Maye's shoulders—but who is he throwing to? The Patriots also lack the pass rush necessary to bother Aaron Rodgers, which is the key to stopping this Pittsburgh offense, and the Steelers line should open up some running lanes. I make this moneyline around +160, so getting it at +210 is good value, and a better value than +5.5 from +3.5 passing non-key numbers. I'd like it a lot more if Mike Tomlin were still coaching because Mike McCarthy's faster, pass-heavy scheme isn't as conducive to grinding out upsets, but I am going to trust my numbers, take a nibble, and pay to find out.

Fade teams off Close Road Game Overall: 156-93-7,63% (ROI:21%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%) #TSA

NFL POD

THE BLITZ is forecasting 2.87 receptions for Jaylen Warren compared to 4.13 receptions implied by sportsbooks, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 73% of the time, resulting in a 33% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $39.57. This play is good down to at least -171. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

@GDAWG5000 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nfl-touchdown-show-week-2/id1004530793?i=1000790412504