Rams vs. Seahawks Odds & Betting Predictions - December 19, 2025

As I mentioned in my game preview, ever since their Week 11 loss to the Rams, the Seahawks have seen their pass rate over expected jump by around ~10%, so there hasn’t been as much rushing volume to go around for both Kenneth Walker III and Charbonnet. Plus, while they are slight 1.5-point home favorites, this still sets up as a game where they are expected to play with the lead at a 14% lower rate than their season average. The Seahawks have played with a lead 56% of the time this season, which ranks 4th highest in the league, but historically a 1.5-point favorite only plays with the lead about 42% of the time. That gap is why I’m projecting them to play with the lead less often tonight, which could mean fewer rushing attempts overall. They also tend to mix in rush attempts for JSN, AJ Barner on the tush push, and Rashid Shaheed, all of which can chip away at Charbonnet’s upside in this market. Charbonnet also tends to see more usage on passing downs and in short-yardage situations, which can limit his ceiling when it comes to rushing yards. This is also a tougher matchup against a Rams defense that ranks 4th in rush DVOA. Charbonnet has been pretty sensitive to matchup quality, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry in 3 games against top 5 rush DVOA defenses, compared to 4.9 yards per carry in 5 games against bottom 10 units. On top of that, LT Charles Cross has been ruled out, which is a meaningful blow to the offensive line and could hurt him even more. The weather report calls for potential rain and high winds, especially in the 1st half, but I don’t think it gives Charbonnet any sort of specific boost. High winds can sometimes allow defenses to play closer to the line of scrimmage or make downfield passing easier depending on wind direction, so I’m mostly treating weather as neutral here. He clears this prop if the Seahawks get out to an early or big lead and lean heavily on the run game, or if he gets one of those tilting 3rd-and-20 draw plays that somehow picks up a cheap 10+ yards anyway. But I’m expecting a closer game where the Rams lean on the run, control time of possession more than usual, and limit Seattle’s overall play volume. Tonight’s prop market is super sharp, but the underlying factors here led me to this as my favorite prop for the game. I’m projecting Charbonnet closer to 30 rushing yards, with around a 59% chance to stay under 34.5.

Boomer’s Book

🌊🦅

Join Discord: https://discord.gg/NcyhmJVXPe

NV

This line has been bouncing back and forth this week but I think this is as good as it’s going to get, so I’ll pounce now. Seattle meets all my personal criteria to be a good bet here, including my personal PR which has them as 0.5-point favorites at home over LA. Keep in mind, Seattle likely wins the first meeting if Darnold doesn’t turn the ball over 4x. I think these teams matchup well together and I fully expect a season split when it’s all said and done on Thursday night.

Locking this in now. See this possibly moving more toward -115 or 21.5

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Thursday Best Bet. Tonight sets up as a great spot to back the Seahawks. While I do have the Rams power rated as the best team in the NFL, I have the Seahawks right behind them, making this a matchup of my two top teams in the league. Tonight should be a fun contest, especially with the game expected to be played in very windy and poor weather conditions. This should fit perfectly into Seattle’s game plan. The Rams are far more comfortable in shootouts, while the Seahawks are completely fine grinding out a defensive battle. Seattle owns the best defense in the NFL, ranking first in defensive DVOA and second in EPA per play. They actually just took over the number one spot from Houston last week. The Seahawks also have the best run defense in the league, which will be critical in a cold, windy game where both teams will lean on the run to set up the pass. Seattle is simply very hard to run on. While the Rams offense has looked elite on paper, a huge part of that production came from Davante Adams, and his likely absence is a massive downgrade. We already saw this matchup earlier in the season, when Seattle completely shut down Matthew Stafford, holding him to a season low of just 130 passing yards. The Seahawks ability to counter the Rams heavy personnel looks has been outstanding, and that schematic edge only grows without Adams on the field. Offensively, Seattle hasn’t looked great in recent weeks, but I’m not overly concerned. This team has weapons all over the field, and Sam Darnold has actually been the most efficient quarterback in the league. Despite having his worst game of the season in the previous meeting with four interceptions, the Seahawks still nearly won in Los Angeles because the defense showed up in a big way. This now sets up as a revenge spot for the Seahawks at Lumen Field, one of the toughest places to play at in the NFL. Tonight’s projected weather plays directly into Seattle’s strengths, as they run the ball at the second highest rate in the NFL. Even though the raw rushing numbers aren’t great, PFF grades Seattle’s run game as the second best in the league. The Seahawks will also have a significant special teams edge tonight. Our model has the Seahawks winning 26.92 to 25.88. It’s not the biggest edge on the board, but the Davante Adams injury combined with poor Seattle weather strongly favors a Seahawks win. Also, let’s talk about the circus surrounding this Rams team right now. This does not look like a group that’s fully locked in, especially on a short week heading into a hostile divisional matchup. Give me Seattle at home.

High Wind Low Total Overall: 471-338-7,58% (ROI:13%) Season:12-5-0,71% (ROI:36%) Outside divisional game (***) Overall: 263-171-10,61% (ROI:17%) Season:8-8-0,50% (ROI:-4%) Open Air Unders: Divisional Drift Overall: 543-420-12,56% (ROI:9%) Season:20-18-0,53% (ROI:1%)

Could be fake sharp

B105